Member Info for Fowlertheprowler

I've got October pencilled in but as you say if the last drill goes well, late August/ September possible. Either way it's looking very positive and surely an announcement on rig contract in next three weeks.

But still tiny compared to historic big move days, so just imagine what could happen if the action really came across with institutional buyers.

10p + by end of year, that would be life changing for me but perhaps a little optimistic!

I'd be delighted with 5p and would celebrate that milestone.

It is all coming together though, and the rig contract will definitely underpin and accelerate momentum so hoping we get this before month end.

Did a dummy sell and offered 2.0415 for 1 million. Until today very hard to sell more than a few hundred thousand at a time. Best sell price for a long term . Frustrating as was going to use a dividend I'm about to collect to use ISA allowance and wanted to get in around 2.3 but we may not return to this now and I will either pass or accept I will have to pay a higher price. Although I have more than enough exposure already but proposition so compelling over next 9-12 months.

Looks very positive for autumn in my opinion, and I'd settle for October, as they won't be able to commit until current ops completed and there are always delays. Difficult to call when the market starts to price this in. I guess it is the removal of all doubt that will come with the signing of drill rig that will kickstart some movement and then down to results!

Some 2.5 buys but a little misleading given spread and sell price! Still range bound which is frustrating but patience remains the key and rig announcement will surely get this into new territory. Good to see progress on ground. Our time will come!

2.40-2.50 remains a strong technical resistance level. Not enough volume to breach at the moment and as you say we need to remain patient. News on rig will take us through it but not enough momentum at the moment without news.

Surely a floor now at 2p unless there is a major delay to gas production deadline. Still modest volume but building and hoping for a close off 2.30 this week and then it's getting through 2.4 resistance over next few months. We may need rig news for this, but perhaps news of pipeline progress will be enough as market sees physical progress!

Also optimistic, but along with most long term holders here we've not ' got to love Aminex'!

More false starts than Manchester United over the last decade, government risk which resulted in repeated delays since 2010, massive dilution (which yes in hindsight saved the company), technical failures leading to them having no producing revenue stream! Frustrating yes, love absolutely not.

We are finally in a window where we can look forward with some justified optimism now that the pipeline is on site and clearance for the project is well under way, but it is healthy to remain cautious of the rampers as well as the trolls. Those of us that have been around this for a very long term will recognise both. I'm not going to name the posters in question but urge everyone on these boards to do their own research, question all opinions and make their own judgements. For example, what happened to the January drill that was being ramped incessantly back in the summer when the official sources have always suggested the summer. It's shameful really and of course the posts are augmented with ai to make them more compelling/ sales driven.

I have my own exit plans and price targets but also recognise that I can't guarantee future performance, particularly in Africa. I would be ecstatic if we get to 5p by first gas, but realistic that this may not be by the end of Q3 but hopefully year end. I will say good luck to all long term investors. We deserve it after all the trials and tribulations of the last 16 years!

I will probably de risk by taking a quarter of my holding down in run up to drill and today is absolutely my last top up, but I can't see why the share price won't breakthrough 2.4p during Feb on next operational update unless of course the rig is pushed back to 2027 but given the pipeline delivery and all the other news from ARA, TPDC etc I just can't see that happening now. I'll be disappointed if the rerate does not gather momentum from next month on basis of evidence of work on the ground galvanising interest and concentrating minds. Surely a rerate to 3p by the summer is not unrealistic? Time will obviously tell!

The four unknowns (all buys) are mine and the 577 buy.

Hoping for another update at some point next week, but let's see!

That's it no more five transactions and done! God help me!

Do we expect a push above 2.4 on pipeline laying/ rig contract news or is it already priced in?

What do people think?

Shifted some bonds to free up for a top up, but took a few days to come through and in meantime buy price up 10%!

Thank you Watchouse, a nice overview.

Trying to keep my feet on the ground amidst 15p and 20p price predictions :) 5p would be transformational for me and anything above this a bonus! I'd settle for first gas production by the end of the year and for me this will be the big value builder as other projects come on stream.

Looking at trajectory of programme, provided the first major hurdles are overcome it's difficult to not see value being built throughout the next 30 months.

If Tanzania can remain relatively stable, 2026 really could be the year of Aminex and I've not believed that for 15 years!

Was told an rns was being planned but reliant on other parties, so I’m expecting second more operational based rns early Feb.

A little underwhelmed by increase but has been building last fortnight and some of rerate already priced in. I would be disappointed, however, this time if it drops back and expect this to continue creeping up with 2.4p challenged and broken by March on back of physical start of laying pipeline. We may also get a drill rig update, although no rush with this as clear actual drilling not planned until Q3 at earliest despite what you may read on these boards!

Agreed, that very positive to see something happen on time at long, long last!

As for price predictions, still too early to estimate but agreed if testing Q3,and first production by year end 4-5p possible and would be transformational for me.

Gl all lths and those who have recently bought in.

Next week will be very interesting. Looking for it to hold above 2p then start building again from Feb!

I am expecting a rns relating to this, but I understand it's dependent on Tanzanian government pr/photo opp so really impossible for Aminex themselves to control newsflow. They are one step removed from ARA and two from government. The start of physical work in this area will be symbolic imo and fire the starting gun towards production. The market is so sceptical because of all the missed deadlines and cancelled developments so actually being able to see satellite imagery of ongoing work should see the sp starting to move back towards 2.4p surely?

Aminex are obviously not at liberty to divulge confidential information on rig contract, but I did ascertain that they are hoping to announce start of physical laying of pipeline in early February but this all has to fit in with Tanzanian government PR, and I suspect will involve a photo op. With reference to rig, they would not be drawn, and clearly this is being driven by ARA but the conditioning narrative is Q3 and I suspect this may drift to end of year. I'm not being negative on this, just realistic and I would be delighted if first gas is drawn by end of year and I do now believe this is possible provided geopolitical situation remains under control. This really could be a transformative year and that's the first time I've felt this in 15 years!

► Strengthened balance sheet: Aminex’s capital raise of US$3.94mm (completed in

October) has secured sufficient funding to reach first gas. Given the company’s

typical general and administrative costs of approximately US$1.5 million per year,

we expect these funds, combined with the capex-carry, to be adequate to support

operations through to first gas. In addition, Aminex has converted its US$1.5 million

facility with Eclipse Investments LLC into equity, leaving the company with a debtfree

balance sheet. We have maintained our target valuation range 3.25–3.70p per

share (Figure 1), as the dilution from this capital raise has been offset by our annual

roll-over of the NPV.

► Tracking our investment thesis: Our investment thesis can be monitored by

following progress on key projects. While we acknowledge that, in the near term,

recent political events may divert government attention away from economic

initiatives, we continue to believe that the thesis can be tracked by monitoring a

small number of government actions that are critical to future gas demand growth

Damon Heath kindly sent across their latest note across to me. I've copied main text but none of graphs or financials but you can get gist from below:

When the political dust settles….

We acknowledge that the political developments following Tanzania’s elections on 29

October 2025 have created uncertainty around the country’s investment

environment. As a result, and unsurprisingly, Aminex’s share price has been negatively

affected. However, our investment thesis on the company remains unchanged, and to

date we have seen no indication that on-the-ground operations have been materially

disrupted. While investors must form their own views on political risk, we believe the

current share price may already reflect much of this uncertainty. Our unchanged target

range for the shares of 3.25–3.70p per share remains significantly above the current

market price, and with the shares trading 37% below their recent peak, we believe a

substantial portion of the political risk is already priced in. Accordingly, once the

political situation stabilises and Tanzania’s economic fundamentals again become the

primary driver of Aminex’s valuation, we would expect the share price to resume its

previous upward trend.

► First gas still on-track for 3Q26. Following management’s trip to Tanzania, Aminex

yesterday morning provided an operational update. All key activities for first

production seem well underway with 2026 budget expected in a $50mm range. The

company stated that: the tenders for drilling Chikumbi-1 (CH-1) are being evaluated;

all long lead items for CH-1 well are on site; the contract for civil works on all three

wells has been awarded with the work expected to start in January. The company

also understands that the groundwork on the Ntorya-Madimba pipeline is to start,

once the pipe that is currently being manufactured, arrives in Tanzania in late

January. Commissioning of the pipeline is expected in 3Q26.

► No impact on gas production in the country. In its quarterly operational update on

27 November, Orca Energy Group stated that, although gas demand declined

slightly during the recent unrest, government institutions, customers, and other

stakeholders quickly resumed operations, with demand returning to normal levels.

► The Tanzanian government continues to demonstrate its commitment to the oil

and gas sector. On 24 November, the Energy Minister, Hon. Deogratius Ndejembi,

called on the Petroleum Upstream Regulatory Authority (PURA) to develop concrete

strategies to accelerate oil and natural gas exploration nationwide. He also

requested that PURA advise the Ministry on measures needed for the fifth licensing

round to ensure an investor-friendly environment while safeguarding national

interests.

► Strengthened balance sheet: Aminex’s capital raise of US$3.94mm (completed in

October) has secured sufficient funding to reach first gas. Given the company’s

typical general and administrative cos

Good spot. I know many have higher expectations but 3.75p by end of next year would be more than double current share price and I'd be delighted with that as it would mean actual execution and I do expect future value points throughout 2027-2030 as revenues build. Northern Magic's 5p prediction is not impossible IF we get to first production later this year. Fingers crossed, that would be truly transformational for a number of us on here.

Happy New Year everyone.