Member Info for Fowlertheprowler

I'm hopeful we'll be back above 2p by the end of January when the pipeline starts to be physically delivered. The rig contract is also key but whilst this could be anytime it could also be held back until the late spring so not holding my breathe on this one. I think at least we can all now agree this is NOT happening in January as some of the more exuberant on here suggested back in the late summer! I'd like to see a floor of 2.5p to break through strong resistance of 2.4p but may need rig news for this! Here's to a transformative 2026, we've waited long enough for it!

Until we start to drill into it! As it has always been, there is a big risk discount on the share which when you take into consideration the history of broken promises, the fact it is Africa (and the geographical and political risks this brings) , the lack of control in proceedings (we are a minority partner) and of course the bigger move away from fossil fuels which has undoubtedly suppressed explorers and early stage producers.

That said, the known scale of the field provides a compelling case once construction begins in earnest. We are tantalisingly close to this stage now, with the pipeline starting to be installed in late January (let's say March as nothing ever happens on time). I suspect the current price action may be a leak regarding a drilling contract about to be announced but let's see. A combination of the pipeline work actually starting and drill rig contract being signed should put a floor beneath the share price of 2-3p surely and then I suspect the next big inflection will be the lead up to drill next autumn. I do think 4-5p is possible at this point, but these are my aspirations rather than expectations and I am keeping my feet firmly on the ground.

I can't see the £billion + valuation for a number of reasons including money being raised for Aminex's other projects (this is another legitimate risk but also conversely possible opportunity) and I also suspect the Tanzanian government won't be able to resist raising taxes on producers if momentum builds to anything around these levels. Of course I hope to be wrong, and frankly I'll be ecstatic if we get north of 5p.

I hope so, if only to announce start of pipeline construction although not expecting to mid-January and more convinced than ever that drilling will be in the summer but hope and would be delighted to be wrong!

They don’t like it up em! Do you steal knickers from washing lines….you’re obsessed with them.

Thank you Malbrad for articulating my point better than me.

I have more shares than most of you, but can see a lack of balance on this board. If you think all of share retreat is down to placement and has nothing to do with election chaos. It’s like the overly optimistic posts and drilling in January even though the company itself has clearly set out a timeline that suggests the summer? I’m trying to condition expectations not scaremonger !

Https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2025/10/31/protests-over-disputed-tanzania-election-enter-3rd-day-military-deployed

You keep believing it’s all part of a worldwide conspiracy and nip out in the middle of the night to put a few more flags up!!!

Https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2025/10/31/protests-over-disputed-tanzania-election-enter-3rd-day-military-deployed

You keep believing it’s all part of a worldwide conspiracy and nip out in the middle of the night to put a few more flags up!!!

You keep your confirmation bias no problem! Multiple news sources stating same thing including Middle Eastern providers.

Would expect price to return to placement levels if situation on ground stabilises, but most (myself included)on here have clearly underestimated impact of election and accompanying instability. Saving grace, ironically and shamefully to some extent is that ARA won’t give a monkey’s about repression, as long as it brings stability to build and drill

I remain committed but fall since election debacle clearly due to return of clear and brazen dictator playbook tactics from President. Any lingering perception that she would take country in different direction to predecessor (same partyfor 60 years!) gone. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2kp9yev5e5o.amp

To suggest the killing of opponents and rounding up of people on trumped up charges of treason make no difference to sentiment is denial imo.

Feeling very conflicted now. Financially feel I have to stay course, but risk premium now back as let’s face it a civil war would not be conducive to drilling prospects would it? Morally, it’s also not a great place to be although I would argue clean and cheaper energy for average Tanzanian a positive thing.

I hope you're right on the last point and time will tell. I'd be delighted to be wrong, but it's still 6% dilution and it's been poorly signposted imo. I'm not going to clog up board with any more posts today.

And for the record, what I think it tells us is that the drilling won't happen until the summer, and first revenue in the autumn is the best case scenario hence the cash raise to avert cliff edges which I get but I would have appreciated more transparency on this, but then again when you look at their communication record why should I be surprised.

You state it's not dilutive but as you correctly state it's 6 % dilutive. Whether it's strategic or not it's still dilutive, that's my point. I have a lot of shares in Aminex and would have preferred opportunity to get more on these terms rather than it going to Eclipse who have got an absolute steal. I have also had conversations with the Aminex team and as I said I feel misled as there was a strong intonation there would no more placings so yes I am immensely irritated by this.

Prospero, I’m disappointed by news as Board have clearly and continuously signposted this would not be necessary. And whilst I agree it remains a good prospect and the next few weeks will represent a good buying opportunity, this has eroded some trust for me.

Also, you are factually incorrect when you say it’s not dilutive. You are coming across as a ramper with this statement , not a serious investor .

Or it did not establish sp above 2.40 so has retreated to previous trading range and I expect it will get support around this level now before filling gap again on new news. It was never going to go up in a straight line, and I will continue to shut out noise (I can see all the green!) from the shorting brigade who are having their little moment in the sun, BUT as Prospero states more eloquently than me the situation for Aminex is very different now with the project now live, full government funding and clear plans to reach first production from late next year. Not concerned in the slightest.

Almost filled the gap to 2.40 now since breaking out. What we need to consolidate gains and take next step up is positive rig news at end of the month/ early next then I hope we can be nearer 3p by year end. Very exciting after such a long wait!!

Reasonable (nothing is guaranteed!) chance of a breakout from here to around 2.4p if we can close above 2.05 if TA is your thing! All the technical analysis sites I look at are screaming stay long despite the recent gains. It feels like the consolidation phase (enabled by positive news as well as technicals) is coming to a close and we may be approaching another leg up. Let's hope so! I would be delighted if we nearer 3p than 2p before we build towards drill.

No problem, apologies for my grumpiness!, some of it is just bonkers though...I do accept we are range bound at the moment and if can close at 2.05 or above it should have a fairly clear run to around 2.4p. There is some method behind the madness but there's a lot of individuals using very limited algorithms to predict price trends who masquerade as technical experts but are just lazy charlatans that can't even put in some basic spade work like checking and accommodating share dilutions or later divisions of assets etc.. I have invested some time with Trend Signal who have been around since 2003 and their swing trading, and general technical analysis very insightful. They place a much greater emphasis on shorter timeframes, and factor in lots of other variables when making buy and sell calls.

No problem, apologies for my grumpiness!, some of it is just bonkers though...I do accept we are range bound at the moment and if can close at 2.05 or above it should have a fairly clear run above 2.4p. There is some method behind the madness but there's a lot of individuals using very limited algorithms to predict price trends who masquerade as technical experts but are just lazy charlatans that can't even put in some basic spade work like checking and accommodating share dilutions or later divisions of assets etc.. I have invested some time with Trend Signal who have been around since 2003 and there swing trading, and general technical analysis very insightful. They place a much greater emphasis on shorter timeframes and they factor in lots of other variables when making buy and sell calls

To avoid confusion I am referring to you tube link not https://www.energy-pedia.com/news/tanzania/aminex-announces-ntorya-operations-update-200995

which is a fair summary of where we are and thank you for posting.