Member Info for Fortissimo

I guess we'll find out soon whether the shorter was just making a bet based on Ecuador elections or whether there is more to their 0.5% short. Last time SOLG had a 0.5% short opened was pre merger completion and it was a clear arbitrage trade by some entity involved...could have been chinese.

So lets see what happens but there's 15m shares on loan that need to be bought back.

Plausible that a deal is in making and the 0.5% short is protection against that falling through. Just guesses and as some have said already, could just be arbitrage by Mather's DGR / debt holder. But again... suggests they know there's something tabled?????

I think quite a few were waiting for elections to be over before adding more. SOLG now have 4 years certainty (or rather the future owners/buyers/partners do) and that should cover the period through to advanced development. The asset might be producing by 2030...possibly earlier if Tandy plans work out.

I think Noboa will be keen to get on with the big jobs / projects now he has 4 years ahead of him.

Great news for Ecuador and SOLG. Noboa has already done a very good job in the short time he had as president after taking over from the toothless Lasso. I think he'll achieve great things over the next 4 years.

I think the winning margin is bigger than most expected but the winner certainly not surprising... my money was firmly on Noboa.

From a 'continuity' point, this is really good for business and all current partners namely the Chinese. Noboa has been supportive of the latter with recent approvals. He also seems to have balanced this relationship well with pleasing the american's by slapping tariffs on mexico. His meeting with Trump recently shows he has an ability to mix it with large global players of the world which is an achievement for little old Ecuador.

Now then Dan... lets be having that news now then. Time to deliver and time for proper regular updates.

The funniest thing is that Porvenir is about a 3rd of the size of Warintza with grades around 0.35% vs 0.52% on warintza. But lets not split hairs too much, the fact is Porvenir is almost as advanced as Warintza (still at MRE stage) so even if you were harsh... you'd say Porvenir was 25% of what Warintza is. And that's harsh. So 25% of £400m = £100m.

It also equals over half our current market cap which leaves the other £80m value for Cascabel. Bit odd we have an asset valued at £80m which is at least 4 to 5 x better than Warintza. So 5 x Warintza = £2bln.

Anyone else know why Solaris seems to carry very little regional risk discount compared to SOLG? Anyone esle know why the xxck management didn't get a deal done on Porvenir?? Lets face it... giving away 5% of the total business for $18m when you could or should have got at least £50m for porvenir in a firesale scenario.

Lets hope the 5% shares gifted to chinese was a sweetener and based on them making a full offer.

The valuation on SOLG seem so daft that surely even the market can't hide the fact that Solaris example proves that Canadian markets and NYSE know how to value mining companies and LSE is well... utterly useless.

Recent presentation worth a look as demonstrates just how great Cascabel is.

The weird thing is... the market values Solaris at twice as much as SOLG circa £380m+.

So how does that work then?? No PFS, smaller asset and looks no where near SOLG's quality/folio.

Yet they are valued at twice as much... yep! Nuts isn't it?

https://www.solarisresources.com/_resources/presentations/corporate-presentation.pdf?v=0.583

Probably the shorter just decreasing by 20% ahead of elections and now that the orange man baby has eaten his own turd.

They prob still have 12m shares shorted left over so Monday could be fun if that 0.5% was just an election hedge.

Last time SOLG attratced a 0.5% short was when the merger was announced and looked like an arbitrage trade. Question now is... if the shorters knows something we don't.... is that insider/arbitrage trading ... again!??

Might suggest something is being lined up and due to be announced soon but someone placing a safety net should it not finalise?

15 mins to go before close.

If Noboa wins on Sunday... this could open and trade pretty fast to the upside.

Plenty taking a punt before Sunday now.

It's like Trump is in some kind of time warp.

I think he thinks it's still the 1980's.

When will the world rid themselves of these 'old fxxckers' that seem to run the show and stick some brighter 30/40/50 year olds in charge.

Too many out of touch hasbeens in powerful places when most should be in retirement homes.

Tail between legs... reverses the tariffs.

What a feckin joke he is.

He should be given a seat on the SOLG BoD.

NotMuchMoney, Scott is still there. Not sure how much he is getting paid or what exactly he is doing but he's still there. They could have booted him but decided to keep him on as a NED.

They are currently looking for a COO (on the ground) person now but don't hold your breath.... it took them 18months to sort a simple chairman role out.

Anyway... not long to go now. Just get through the weekend and then I expect news to flow freely. Doesn't mean it's good news / neutral or bad etc... just think think they are waiting for elections to complete or a certain partners or interested party is!

The chaps at G-mining are the best source for ops updates... SOLG will struggle to contain them chirping away. Some know G-mining very well. So progress on the ground... already known by many... one assumes!

from jpm note out today

* j.p.morgan says that metals and mining names were top performing sector exiting the last three recessions and it continues to forecast a "v-shape" recovery in 2025

* while it's too soon to call a trough, jpm says it sees this period of weakness as an opportunity to accumulate exposure to copper and gold equities and/or miners that are strategically vulnerable

* its top picks across european metals and mining stocks are anto***asta , rio tinto , lundin mining , fresnillo , anglogold and hochschild

* jpm notes that the sector has been the worst performer since new u.s. tariffs were announced, down 13%, and carries latent weakness

* however, it says that the mining shares factor in a potential recession and are already discounting prices 15%-20% below current levels

* jpm notes mining outperformed msci europe by around 100% once markets troughed, with sector value creation triggered by china economic stimulus

* it sees parallels in 2025 as jpm china economists' latest forecasts expect a new 1 trillion yuan ($136 billion) fiscal stimulus to arrive in q3

For the simple reason that Trump wants him to win. Gonzalez supports mexico and Trump doesn't want that.

I guess we'll see just how uch control and influence the US has over over countries voting soon. Bit like Putin and the way he effects other countries voting through social media and other disinformation tactics.

Trump needs added pressures on mexico and Noboa went to white house weeks ago and came back and slapped tariffs on Mexico. See a pattern?

It's on 'new' leases not existing. So not affected.

It looks like Noboa will win to me? I guess it depends on whether you read lefty or righty news channels.

Trump wants Noboa to win as helps him finger mexico.

DFS could arrive before a takeover but the the time for making a deal and getting the asset sold is anytime now... leading up to the final investment decision. Franco/Osisko are NOT going to agree to bung in a further $600m unless SOLG can prove the full project is financed. And to do that they'll need to secure the copper stream and tap other sources of finance one would assume involves a large equity raise too. Shareholders have to be seen to be putting skin in the game if financing $2bln+ projects via streams and other bank finance.

So in summary, there's no way Bob and co have come this far to end up being heavily diluted simply to sign off on a full investment decision. No way ... that's last thing they want. Dilution through equity placements is exactly the opposite of their plan and why they have gone the stream route.

The CGP shares issued recently was NON dilutive as already in circulation.

Hence management will not be doing or planning any placements into the market.

They'll need to get a deal to sell or JV the asset within the next 6 to 12 months imho assuming the ticking time clock is no longer ticking on Mather.

Who know's where the sp will be these days with the manbaby acting like some kind of primary kid doing sweet shop calcs on how many bon bons he can bag in exchange for some fizzy dips.

Fact is... this is peak crisis point for SOLG.

1. Ecuador elections need to go smoothly. Either canidate will do but Noboa prefered.

2. Need confirmation that boxes ticked and Franco second tranche £33m has been handed over

3. Need the manbaby to realise that he can't take on the chinese and win without a US civil war.

Bag all three and no reason why we can't be back into the teens. Nothing SOLG specific has changed since the last time we were in the teens after the initial Franco/Osisko $750m deal announcement. If there were any material changes then management would have told us .... because that's the law.

News out that chinese are going to go down the 'consumption' route to counter Tariffs.

This could be huge. Trumps dream starting to look like it's in tatters like his approval poll numbers too.

It's all gone pear shaped for the orange man baby.

Chinese looking to acquire, gold, copper and other resources although that's not exactly new news at all.

SOLG looking in a great position with a Tier1 asset that more advanced now than it was when the share price was 40p+

Lots of ISA trades going through and some will be clapping their hands at the recent low opportunity to add into tax free shell especially now that CGT allowance is reduced.

Chinese were active buyers in the market around the 7's so today must be xmas come early.

They can buy up around 0.85% or around 28mln shares without triggering TR1's. Some might say, they can actually add up to 6% more stock without issuing a TR1 due to the Valuestone being Chinese but apparently unrelated to jiangxi lol!

So Chinese could get up to 18%+ without even having to trigger a market announcement.

Mmmm! And that's not to mentioned all the other chinese funds/entities that are buying but below 5%.

Some beginning to look at Vance's team and suggesting they are sitting back and letting the orange man baby plunge himself into a hole that only a new president like 'vance' can get america out of.

Interesting times. If Trump was serious about making america great again, he could have phased these Tariff's in over 2 or 3 years. What's the rush? The fact he dodn't suggests he plans to negotiate them all down lower but trouble is, damage is being done right now in markets which won't be repaired. If it continues, Banks will begin to wobble again and fail.

A gradual tariff plan with 2.5% increases every 6 months would have worked just as well.

Vance to be next president within 6 to 12 months by looks of things and to be honest... that looks pretty poor for all too as he's another complete nutter... just without the orange tinge. My of a yellow coward tinge to him.

Addicknt, I think you'll find Scott looked permanently 'relaxed' from the moment he took over. I think that was the issue... too relaxed and lacking any real urgency to get the job done. Like he was just there to baby sit while Bob tried to get a deal done. Being harsh on him... some folk with little between the ears do tend to look a bit relaxed... like the lights are on but no one's in.

Trump wants Noboa in as he's the one that's helping turn the screw a bit on mexico.

Gonzalez is a friend of mexico so not good for Trump.

You're betting against Trump's power to bend the polls lol!