Member Info for Fortissimo

The sad truth is it's peanuts. $18m for an extra 5%+ stake in a business which has an asset worth of around £2bln.

So lets run the numbers... 5% of £2bln = £100m. They've just achieved that for £15m. 85% discount.

And they've also got an extra 5% of the regionals which apparently have another 5 ot 6 Tier1 mines waiting to be discovered

And they've just had a huge mine in Ecuador cleared for development by Noboa as announced at PDAC.

At end of the day, it's good on them. They are only able to take advantage of these kinds of things when you have inept management teams running businesses and global miners like BHP that put ego's before business accumen.

That's why the chinese are the best in the world and way way better than the US. China are number 1 and getting bigger and bigger. I'm not a communist that's for sure but I think the way they go about business compared to likes of Man baby Trump demonstrates that they are way way better. It's taken them a while, but their cars are better and cheaper. Their appliances are better and cheaper. It's the EU and US that make expensive products and bank the profits.

Nope, correct. They bought up another 0.9% and were very careful not to trigger a TR1 RNS by keeping under 7% threshold.

Very very sneeky eh??

I did say there were some large blocks moving around and wanted to understand who's been buying them.

This is beginning to feel a bit like Wyloo and GGP and we all know how that utter shambles turned out. GGP share price was 30p to 40p levels and £1bln market cap before Wyloo arrived. Fast forward a couple of years and the market cap still £1bln but pi's diluted out of their investment with sp now 4 x lower at 9p.

We need to make sure we keep to the Franco schedule and get that extra $60m+ required otherwise, chinese are going to just walk away with this. BHP won't bid now imho as they know the chinese will easily beat them. BHP can't compete with chinese state.

So... we now know why the chinese were not buying in the open market.

We now know why the sp has been suppressed (clear order book pressure)

We now know this was in effect planned by the BoD's imho. When they took the Franco fund deal back in July, Scott and all management knew that there was circa $5m due to retain the regional licences. They knew it couldn't be paid for via Franco funds. So they knew a placement of CGP shares would be required.

What else do we know? Well, we also know that they are running low on cash due to Scott's poor planning and performance as well as the SOLG board.

We also know that Darryl's final settlement appears to have been in the millions. So lets tot it up... $5m on licences, $2m on Darryl??? and roughly $11m to cover the period whereby they have zero cash because they burned all Franco's funds. It's not dissimilar to last years $10m bridge loan. It would appear that they were always going to be running by $10m behind and that gets worse with delays.

And finally, I guess we now know that the Chinese are in the driving seat. Franco docs have been altered to facilitate a JV partner. Chinese now our largest shareholder. BHP and NMM of importance but looking like they are well and truly sidelined so middle finger up to them again... mmm says it all.

Bottom line... I think post Ecuador elections, we will see some news flowing for sure. All the folk that NEED to be IN a now well in.

The free confetti shares have been sprinkled on the bridge to be.

As for Scott... sorry... but that man should not be on the SOLG payroll and should be out the door. Total destruction and all the time he knew what he was doing... or should we say what his paymaster wanted him to do .... so BOB... if your CGP shares are worth just 8p or something, why did we agree to merge with you at around 22p?? You utter useless pr@t.

Yes agree, and the irony is, if they spin out regional folio into a newco which is then listed and SOLG shareholders effectively gain a stake in that and are issued shares etc, then you find a weird situation whereby future exploration does not actually help the SOLG share price at all, instead it's exactly where we are now although shareholders will have a stake and gain if or when exploration is a success. But the point here is, it's surely better to have a model which enables gains in exploration via regionals to feed into the SOLG share price. Surely that's the point. So to that end, likely that SOLG will be the share holders in any newco and the stake will get diluted in that newco as and when funds are needed leaving the main SOLG company free from burden of regional capex and thus effectively make main SOLG shareholding an ENSA holding.

I guess we'll see what Dan and co have lined up in 3 weeks time or 4 weeks if they are going to wait upon Ecuador elections before hitting the RNS button. Quite a few news releases due in April... so busy month especially with ISA season kicking off too.

Roll up roll up... April not far away now.

No idea, but the volume was just 63k which is about $450 innit?

Volume is your friend Orpherncopper.

I see Trump is beginning to see the merits of his bully boy tactics. Make America great again.... erm... well... he's crashed their stock markets which is not hard as they are overvalued about 2 times over. Some of those tech valuations make the dot com boom look like a bear phase.

Chickens coming home to roost for Trumpy boy and bleached ones at that. A man baby about to realise that he's actually a pretty poor deal maker. Canada whopping him real good just like they whoop the US at Ice Hockey.

Darryl had mine building experience and the city believed in him. Only problem is, post covid / inflation issue hit and it became swiftly apparent that no one was going to be dipping into their pockets for $4bln capex while the global markets we're in a spin and lenders were ducking out of high risk assets and basking in the high interest rate era that had begun. It was just poor timing on Darryl's behalf.

What happened next made some sense. They cut the pfs down and got it to a level whereby even a mid tier player could get involved and that's in a high rates/inflation period. Suddenly it because much easier to sell as it wasn't just a project for super majors.

So we are where we are as they say but difference is... we've lost the brains behind mine building and blockcave as Darryl had both.

Addicknt... rumours of Scott's... erm lets say 'attendance' in Ecuador was circulating well before news broke he had been booted. His residency changed and that was Dec or Jan I believe. Questions were asked then on why? So I think he was always going to step away as was just there as Bob's eyes and ears. When Bob's plan failed, I think the plan B got actioned. Look at the dates on the recent Franco deal Doc that was amended and added to SEDA. Tweaks and changes started as early as January.

SOLG has always been a business run by Mather and CGP boys. We've now seen both take charge and both fail in various ways. It doesn't surprise me to see another shift as logic says if progress is not made within a given timeframe (which appears to have been 2 years here) then it's over to the next team. And on and on we go. There is little point sticking with a poor manager when you are fighting relegation for want of a analogy... Premier League wise... Scott would have been out after about 10 games. Instead, he got almost 2 seasons and we're no longer premier league, we're now staring at Div 3 relegation fight based on share price levels.

But as the analogy goes, it's very unusual for the owners to keep the failing boss on but give him some kind of cosy position as a NED and a jobless role??? So the fact he was not booted entirely makes me think the likes of Mather and co know this will be sold soon and Scott will get his reward even though some will say he deserves zero... he did spend 2 years in Ecuador and we needed someone there for sure.

Bottom line... Mather needs an 'event'. Bob needs an 'event'. Franco i'm sure would prefer an 'event' and bigger pockets/brains on board. And finally, tired shareholders need an 'event'.

Post Ecuador elections, I suspect we'll get quite a few events and news reports to ponder. And FWIIW, March is always a dull month as sellers flog their ISA allowance in advance with hope of buying it back cheaper. Come April 6th or rather April 14th... just watch this stock spring into life.

for a man that doesn't have alot of money, he's certainly doing some tax planning as you say lol!

now, remind me what his current role is within solg??? what exactly is he doing now apart from sitting around drinking ****tails and waiting for his pay day?? mind you, isn't that what all the cgp boys have been doing for the last decade?

Addicknt, g-mining were effectively handed ops control late Nov and bulk of Dec was seasonal. So I'm using just plain old common sense and knowledge of mining ops to arrive at the idea that 3 holes drilled in Dec was not great progress when you take into account they received the funds and agreed the timeline of events with Franco back in JUNE 2024!!!!

So join the dots. You know the cash burn level. You know roughly when they need NEW funds (eg APRIL) based on burn rates. You know that g-mining might get a few more holes done in Jan period through to end of March... but you then have assays (these can take weeks) and you have quite a bit of other works. All in all... I would put them about 8 weeks behind and the only question now is whether Franco agree to release funds in April or whether they have to do another bridge loan and then pay it back when they have completed the phase 1 requirements to Franco's satisfaction.

Of course... I could be wrong... they could be bang on time and all looks good for April draw down.

Eitherway, based on the removal of Scott, I'd say Franco are content especially when you take into account the SEDA doc on the amended agreement. Looks like they've been dotting i's and t's again or tightening it all up... goodness knows why? lol!

Stackhouse is most certainly not 'on top of matters'. If he was then we'd have had a chairman 12 months ago and a change on CEO shortly after. Instead, we've drifted along doing farq all and the so have halved again. I'm not going blame Scott for everything. That's not my view. It's all of the management poorly performing. Or is it that they couldn't perform because someone else called 'bob' was running the show??

As some have mentioned already, Dan is not a new man. He's simply a different face from the same team. Only question now is... how much opportunity has he been given? Is he just another face to front up the Bob/Mather show? Or this time, is he more Franco's man and ready to make sure that all milestones are hit and keep Franco sweet.

Franco, have a few options in my opinion, they could pull the funds and walk away. Or they could continue to fund but ask for more changes or ask for no changes?? Or... bit left field... could they make an offer for SOLG themselves?? In other words, why invest $500m+ when they might as well pitch a $750m or $1bln offer, and then sell it on in parts to likes of BHP or any other interested party.

There comes a point when the biggest risk to Franco and their investment is not the asset derisking but the tools behind the SOLG doors pushing the wrong buttons and pi55ing funds away due to delays upon delays.

Addicknt, not sure I understand your point on removing Scott ... being a 'huge risk'?? Generally, you removed a CEO when they've underperformed and we all know Scott has underperformed. So not a risk at all. The huge risk would have been leaving things as they were which is what you wanted I believe?

As for Stackhouse? Who is he and why would it be a mistake to ditch him?

Remember, NED's are there for a number of reasons and some carry important board votes.

But on the whole, I agree with the sentiment that virtually all of them need the boot.

Finally, you must realise WHO or WHAT is funding SOLG going forwards. Yes... that would be Franco and Osisko. These are our paymasters now. We need to keep them sweet. They have POWER. And they have a SAY in what's going on. So if they think the business needs a fresh of management and skills... then I suspect we have to honour that. If we don't... do they walk away and leaves us with zero funding??

Scott was terrible. You need to acknowledge it, register it and get over it. Then move on and instead of being highly sceptical, start being more excited at the prospect of exploration kicking off again and the business seemingly in a grown ups hands now.

Pbow, I'm not getting into semantics. Escalation / inflation? I'm well aware of both. I was implying the bulk of cost rises will be inflation issues. Not escalation issues. I suspect there will be some issues that rise that were not fully planned for so yes... there will be some contingencies. But the PFS has already factored in some capex toward such events. Although these are minor for obvious reasons.

Escalation = HS2

Inflation = $200m to $300m+ increases based on 2 or 3 year ago price estimates on $1.55bln. eg 20% or so.

Who knows what's around the corner... they might have to drill several mine shafts... do somethings 3 times over... etc etc. That's not going to be known until you get into the development.

What I am talking about is the here and now. If you sat down and reissued that PFS, what would the numbers say... and I'm simply saying that just based on inflation alone, you'd be looking at 20% uplift. But metal prices today present more than that in terms of returns, so the IRR would be much higher than it was in last PFS.

As for escalation... Rio know all about that don't they?

Pbow, inflation will and has played a factor. I'm not sure I understand your point re ecuador? Ecuador are not a mining centre of the world as you know, so everything mining related needs to be shipped or flown in. Staff costs rise as I mentioned. The list goes on. Costs will rise. But as I said, that's fine against a rising metals markets as ultimately it comes down to the IRR when raising funds from investors.

As for whether Scott or Bob underestimated the build costs... well possibly but as you say Franco know this as did due diligence and a lengthy process to boot.

I found your post a bit concerning as some on here would find 'rising costs' slightly alarming when not followed with a balanced comment like I have offered. That's all. Wouldn't want to scare any folk would we Pbow?

Pbow, I don't think anyone thought G-mining would be building the mine. They are simply doing the derisking works which quite frankly look as basic as it gets. There's buckets to do before anyone needs to be getting deep down into the core. That was my take. So using g-mining who know ecuador and are used by Lundin et al, makes perfect sense.

I think you've got a bit ahead of yourself. When they get to development decision... then there's serious money to be deployed and serious specialist build teams required.

You don't employ them now as development decision is a way off.

I should add, Franco will be aware of inflation issues and surely they are built into the agreement? Things cost more these days... that's the way it is. People are paid more... that's the way it balances out although some do better than others etc etc etc.

FWIIW, I think the Franco second tranche is likely agreed and the changes we are seeing is a condition of that etc. So I think the market will have the stock back up to the 9's or higher once that second tranche is confirmed in I reckon... 3 to 4 weeks time or post ecuador elections.

Traders will be decending on this one soon as it's at all time lows and that's againstb the risk on appetite that appears to be returning to markets over last few months.

Most traders will be more than happy with 50% upside trading ops right now. Lets see how the sp goes leading up to April whioch I think will be a big news month.

Pbow, agree the total will be closer to $2bln due to inflation. But a rise in costs if absolutely fine if it is supported by a rise in metal prices and the all important IRR. It's not the cost of finance that puts bankers / key financiers off, it's the IRR. And based on metal prices, these more than outweigh the inflationary pressures.

Infact, when you factor in the reality which is that 'every' mine out there will be suffering from infationary issues, you soon realise that it's not really making any difference to a buyer or key funding partner. What makes the difference is how the numbers stack up with higher metal prices albeit based on a average level rather than a 'high'.

With the orange man baby playing around like he's trading conkers, PoG looks destined for $3000oz levels and higher in the next 4 years.

You have to balance out both sides rather than just focus on the rising capex/inflation issues.

Tandy is certainly the one which could see a decent chunk of that capex being chipped away at during early years and that works well but they still have to prove that up more before they can bank it.

Why are you surprised by g-mining being appointed?

We need 'experts' and they are they experts in ecuador as proven by all the projects they have been executing.

So cutting them out would reduce us to zero ops as Scott sacked all the staff long ago.

I don't think Franco would be cutting off G-mining... quite the opposite. They want more experts involved especially related to Blockcave.

DBW... Dan has already done IPO's on ASX. And the fact they mentioned ASX suggests that they are likely to float the exploCo on ASX imho. So the funding comes from the IPO/new investors and ineffect becomes 'little SOLG' and the hopes of it becoming 'big' SOLG are ironically marred by the fact that the bigger identity is hamstrung by finding a Tier 1 mine lol!

It's all a bit upside down but that fits perfectly in this current world!

The idea of next 'cab of the rank' only really works if you get your first cab sold. The business model is then proven. That said, markets are stupid enough these days that they still get excited by new discoveries and that's why exploration still works. Just don't hang around too long after the big hole strikes lol! Follow the Lassonde curve and trade accordingly would be the lesson to be learned.

Any IPO suffers from dilution but you can't dilute zero to less than zero can you? And that's where we are with the regionals... we are at zero. I think there's chance current shareholders could get 40% without investing in the newco but guess we'll see.

Like some have said, they could sell Porvenir and use that cash to fund ExploCo? I think the best scenario is just keep the ENSA business split apart from exploration as it blurs the lines especially on G&A and Franco won't be happy with that.

I guess if you want $750m stream finance you need to be clear that it won't be pi55ed away on exploration and instead focused on the asset. So who pays for the explo staff... who pays for the rigs... who pays for the lights to be on... all this is hard to account for when running two different business arms at different stages.

They are looking for a new COO which will be Ecuador based. I think this is an acknowledgement that Scott was acting more as a COO than a CEO and as many have said... he was really an operations person, although ironically, by looking for a new COO, it suggests he wasn't a CEO or COO and in fact a total waste of space. Which in Bob's buddies world, means he gets to move to NED position which acts as nothing more than both eyes and ears and of course a key vote??

Bottom line is, they are having to get the 'experts' in now as the crew in charge are woefully out of their depth. Not just Scott... all of them. None of them know how to build a Tier1 mine. None of them have done anything like this before.

FWIIW... I think Franco have tightened things up further ahead of the next tranche release. And who can blame them. They did due diligence on the asset but are now realising that the weakness is actually in the management team and that needed addressing.

I think there were rumours a few months back that Scott wasn't sooooo Ecuador based as many thought. Seemed like he was there a while but that started to slip. I guess he got homesick or tired of waiting for Bob to get him out of there??

It was never a good idea to make him CEO. Furthermore, it was not smart to put your CEO in Ecuador when your fellow boardroom mates are elsewhere.

So in summary, if you need a CEO to be more of a CEO... then you don't stick him in Ecuador. And if you need a COO to be in Ecuador then you need to find one that wants to be there or hasn't already spent 2 years doing it and got not very far. And finally, this is no longer a game of charades... the days of SOLG 'faking it' are over. It's now very serious and you need people in that know how to build a Tier 1 mine.

The fact they have retained scott as a NED has benefits to Bob and no doubt he can impart some local knowledge to the new COO that comes in.

But if I were Franco... I'd be turning the screw tighter and tighter with each tranche I hand over especially if I saw weakness or a threat to my investment.

SOLG/CGP merger completed 24 Feb 2023.

I wonder whether Mather et al agreed to giving Bob 2 years to get the job done. If not sorted after 2 year deadline, then move aside and go with plan B... development/partner route???

There does seem to be a changing of the guard again and this time they are wiser and have exhausted various channels already... thus they now know the only way forwards is through exploration and that includes on Tandy.

Also, there seems to be alot of chatter about 'accelerating' derisking the asset which is kind of ironic as they've been doing the opposite for last 2 years. They put the brakes on while Bob tried to swing his flaccid bat.

After delivering just 3 holes as of Dec 31st, I'm not surprised the emphasis is now on 'speed'. I wonder if Ecuador gov were a bit grumpy regarding the slow progress?? Can't blame them either.

We know from past events that Bob, Mather and co are not keen on dilution. So any funds required to fast track works might come from the asset rather than equity. Lets face it, the market hasn't priced in the extra 15% we got by merging CGP/ENSA to 100% ownership.

What if they offered a finance package that enabled BHP or Jiangxi to earn in via staged progress/payments and acquire a 10% stake in ENSA??? That woul also provide a value on the asset that the market would have to wake up to. Say they gained $150m cash for 10% slice of ENSA??

Using equity at these levels is a non starter and never gonna fly with Bob and Mather unless of course they are participating in it lol!

If you re-read this para, it seems to suggest a collab or pathway for BHP and or NMM to get involved...

"The Company is unique as it benefits from having a number of experienced industry shareholders and partners. The Company will have open dialogue and in some cases invite active participation in assisting with fast tracking the above initiatives." END.

It could also involve Jiangxi, but I think the sentiment behind that paragraph is more about opening back up to BHP and NMM after battling the last few years to keep them at arm's length (eg avoid issuing more equity to them).

After Bob's failures, it does look like they've decided that they have a better chance of the market 'believing' in the story if likes of BHP/NMM are actively involved.

That said, you could say it's just careful steps ahead of shunning the two large holders... eg; offer an invite but if they pontificate or play games, then can't say they weren't given a chance.

The early cash flows at Tandy are a game changer should they prove that aspect workable. I think Jiangxi are more likely to be interested in that kind of project but you never know... NMM might be keen too as it's low risk open pit.. well 'open ish'.

With PoG now almost double the levels when Tandy was first stumbled across, it would make perfect sense to mine this first. It's still a sizable opportunity but funding that is far easier near term. That would accelerate work plans as might provide an early 'bankable' resource which would then allow for advancements on key mine shaft works on Alpala.

Just a hunch but I think dropping Scott and moving forwards with Dan might also be part of a move to distance the company from Bob and his crew.

Alot going to happen over the next 4 weeks with Ecuador elections also due early April.