RE: Goodbye 7p14 Feb 2025 10:49
Pbow, 'the market' doesn't need to react to the 'fumes' scenario as that scenario was known back in July 2024. It was pretty obvious to all that after banking $33.4m cash from Franco, an immediate payment of $10m was required for the bridge loan or thereabouts. So they started the H2 period with $23.4m cash or thereabouts. So from July 1st through to Dec 31st, they burned $10m ish.
They have $13m+ as of Jan 1st. So I would imagine with all the costs involved being front ended into this quarter, then yes... it will be tight, but as highlighted already... it was always going to be tight. There's only so much you can achieve with $23m over a 9 to 12 month period.
Many people forget about the $10m loan. So they just see the $33.4m reduced to $13m and assume the burn rate is higher when it's not.
As I said, there's nothing new in today's news on the cash burn and actually I think it's pretty healthy considering I was expecting it to be nearer zero about now. My guess is they have around $10m left now.
Franco are a 'partner' and incredibly supportive and excited about Alpala. A few weeks over run (assuming that ends up the case, here or there is not a big deal to them.
So no real stress on that one and market has this well bedded in. We are at 6p/7p levels for a reason and that's because market doesn't rate the management team and doesn't have to mark the stock up until it sees the next tranche land. And even then, it becomes all about tranche 3. Then after that, all about a final decision / plan for the release of the other $650m pot.