Member Info for Fortissimo

Addicknt,

What happens if we get a low ball at say 18p a share and SOLG then issue 150m (CGP SHARES) to the likes of BOB and Mather at et all as some kind of apparent defence. The offer is then raised to near 30p and hey presto Bob et all recommend the offer, back it and it gooes through? They've made 50% on the newly issued 150m shares. That's like them getting 45p a share while you and others will be left getting ... well ... just 30p a share.

See how it works?

I didn't say he made a takeover did I? I said he 'took over'.

Pay attention.

He took over when the cgp boys booted Darryl. I thought you knew that?

He then went on to organise some funding $50m cash with Chinese. He also gifted Osisko (his mates biz) a $50m royalty stream on better terms than Franco. He then went onto bill SOLG around $4.5m for his services I believe lol!

How has he gone quiet? He said a bit when he took over but don't think he's said anything much since then.

You're implying he's gone quiet... but lets be frank here. He's just keeping himself in the shadows while his puppet Scott does the day to day stuff.

The real question you should be asking is how are Bob and Mather getting along??? Remember... they really hate each other.

It depends on who's bidding. BHP won't want to lay down the first bid for fear of getting whooped like they did by Wyloo. Embarrassing. Their acquisition dept must have looked at Noront and thought we can get this asset and don't think Wyloo would put up a fight. They got it so wrong. So there's proof that BHP can make a dogs dinner out of bidding. They won't want to see a Tier1 asset and folio go to a competitor if they can help it.

The recent metal prices and forecast for copper etc makes Alpala extremely profitable for them. That's no longer in question. At $1750oz it was very profitable for them. At almost double that... it could pay back on the capex in half the time.

Putting the majors aside, if it's the chinese that drop the first bid, then like BHP they won't like being out bidded as embarrassment to them.

So first bids likely to come from someone that has no shame and probably someone that knows they'll get outbid but doesn't care much as if they don't - they are gonna win big in the end.

So a low ball from someone like Mitsui or Osisko could be seen as a friendly and insider deal ... bit like an MBO almost and that would be a worry as they might have agreed a sale with likes of BHP further down the line ... hence they get free run at it, delist and then a year later flog for double.

There are dangers with Low balls if the low baller is potentially acting like a middle man. PE firms often involved in that too.

Smickster,

I think it's 'law' that everyone votes. So if there are two candidates to choose from, then yes... they will vote. But like I said, it's of no real importance as most swing votes will be decided amongst Noboa/Gonzalez voters. Many will simply vote the same unless of course one of the two promise something that the really catches the voters.

Noboa beat Gonzalez last time around and I can't see anything to stop him doing the same again. The good news is that we have moved a long way away from the 'lefty' tree huggers that did so well when Lasso was up.

It's looking good for business and miners. And to be honest, the fact that some thought Noboa might get it done in the first round perhaps shows the level of confidence in what he's done over last year.

$2900oz

Wow... seriously motoring and the vaults all bear too!

I actually expected the indigneous vote to be a bit larger as it was a few years back. Seems like even the indigneous folk are starting to see the importance of jobs as well as security. I also think they see more and more ESG in play and better management of existing mines so there's clear wins there. But compulsory land purchases are never going to go down very well with locals that have been in the area through generations after generations. And to be honest... it's there home so fair play to them. But there vote based on early details on the elections is minor and won't factor in the upcoming run off.

I can't see Noboa failing myself as Gonzalez not really offering anything that is a major change to Noboa. So likely all about cartels unfortunately and who they want in. They are the ones that tell / force many in Ecuador to vote a certain way. Tough world out there.

Just shows you how a large position can be built up under the radar.

Easily done. And UK based lol!

Pbow, it's not like UK politics where you ahve to get another party on board. The Ecuador people go to a second vote and basically you then have a situation where it's a 50:50 vote... not a three way vote. So yes, some of the anti mining voters will align with whichever candidate they think suits them best, but the real deciding factor comes in how the relative neutrals vote and many will swing from Noboa to gonzalez or the other way around as they are the popular vote.

First past the post in the second round so a 1% or 2% margin for Noboa right now would see him comfortably through.

I don't think either will be giving too much attention to anti mining as it could back fire on them as major voting point is unemployment so they want jobs... they want big business.

certainly no competition for alpala there. just shows how good alpala is. what hand**** need a 1000m strike not a 75m strike. i don't think they'll get anything like that in the south.

porvenir way better than titan. and as we know, solg can't be bothered much with that at the moment.

smallfry stuff but good to see news flowing on some drills in ecuador.

Eish, if you look at the dates on when G-mining started works, it's highly unlikely that they'll be any news backed up by assays etc until at least March. I don't there is a news blackout at all. The reality is, they were 'late' to start the works and as a consequence, we've lost about 6 months where virtually nothing was done.

The company will have news soon but it might just be confirmation that geo works concluded and they are awaiting assays etc.

In a nut shell... it's no long an exciting exoloration company... it's a dull 24month+ derisking story of which you'll be lucky to get 3 or 4 updates per year exclsuing the usual MD&A's. When's the next one on those?

John Liu defo Jiangxi's man. Remember BHP and NMM (NCM) had opportunities to have a non exec on the board. No reason why Jiangxi would turn that offer down either... but of course no need to officially publicise that eh!

SOLG must have 4billion shares out there and not 3billion as the mm's never seem short of the stock and all these large blocks going through have to come from somewhere yet here we are with zero TR1's.

When SOLG was dropped from the MSCI index last year, there was a plausible for the selling in large chunks as they held 60m shares or so. But here we are with greater volumes these days and still no sign of any holdings RNS's.

Perhaps the warped idea of allowing a certain entity to acquire stock from market on the cheap then allows for a decent offer later on?? Who knows? But something is cooking and SOLG BoDs being in London seems coincidental with the sudden surge in large block trades.

I can't put my finger on it, but something feels like it is genuinely brewing. And lets face it... Mather & DGR are on a ticking time clock now. Even if an offer was tabled, we're looking at around 6 months to see anything officially complete although the share price will obviously perform well... nothing guaranteed until someone completes on the deal. It took BHP well ove ra year I think to complete on the Oz minerals deal.

So if there is to be a bid... it's gonna need to be soon.

If Noboa wins vote on Sunday in the first round, then feasible a bid could be lined up on that scenario as whoever bidding might already be aligned with Noboa eg someone like Lundin etc.

If it goes into a second round then won't be decided until April. That's not going to effect SOLG much as suspect they'll be announcing phase 2 funding sorted as early as first week in April.

There does seem to be some urgency about the order filling... as if someone is getting ducks in order ahead of a Noboa first round win??

Remember, super majors are resource short at moment after weak investment during and post covid. So they can't drip along waiting on sidelines... they need to bag assets like Alpala now and get it moving toward production pronto. A super major could have this producing alot faster if they took it out now rather than wait another 2 years.

Wouldn't want to be out this weekend as they say!

It's standard practice for MM's to 'manage' the book if they have a large order or orders to fill. Where it becomes more difficult for them is when the buying pressure far exceeds their control. At the moment, they are happily getting one seller sold and one large or a few large buyers filled in or around the 7p to 7.3p level and if it takes a spoof 2m block on the book to gain them sometime to get this order done... that just the way it is these days. You won't get happening so much on FTSE100 stocks as most are automatic and rarely need to involve mm's.

It's just wholesale vs retail and the two need managing differently.

Remember that apparent hot tips sammy post about a bid being lined up.

Mmm... the last few weeks of trading action certainly seems to suggest that the bee's have awoken and the hive is beginning to warm up ahead of spring.

Someone is working very hard to keep the price down - that's apparent by the order book. But there are some large 'bombs' from buyers being chucked in there which I'm guessing will eventually see the sp move north. Someone is in more of a rush than they were lol! It's been going on for months now but has moved up a gear since turn of the year.

Ignore the elections... doesn't matter whether Noboa gets it or his rivial. They are both PRO mining. For continuity, Noboa would make more sense as new girl would take bit more time to get up to speed.

Something cooking for sure. Remember, the Noront example... the sp was dead, going no where at 20 cents and then next morning in landed a 55 cent offer. It ended up at 110 cents after bid war with Wyloo.

If you think you'll 'signs' before the big event, think again. Often happens when you least expect it.

I know, if you read the releases you'll see they haven't actually done anything with the Tailings works as that's down to g-mining. Scott and team have been charged with finding the right areas for the tea rooms and bogs, eg low grade work but important not to stick the swanny on top of your resource core.

In a nut shell, you won't hear anything from g-mining on the tailings until March at earliest.

All in all, very poor by Scott and team. You'd think they would have been 'ready and primed' to go when the $33.4m hit the bank account in June of last year. Instead... they seemed to say... oh we got the money ... so we better work out what we need to do.... then got so far and realised that they were hopelessly incapable and needed to get the experts in.

Sound about right?

The lack of updates is mainly due to the fact that they gained funding in June last year and then did close to zero until appointing an outside contractor... called G-mining. They are experts but like all experts, would need some time to understand the requirements for the tailings and double check all the surveys which the CEO and his team had spent the last 18 months doing. So in a nut shell, if you appoint the experts in Mid to late October and then have a meeting to discuss the project in November.... then it's pretty unlikely you'll have any meaningful drill or geo results until at least March. That's assuming they can get assays done quickly too.

So no updates is ... well ... because they have zero to update on.

The PFS and NPV are based on a phased development plan.

A super major wouldn't go with the current scaled down PFS. It's too small for them. They'd go with something like Darryl's original PFS. You have to remember that the scaled down PFS is based on just 20% of the resources.

I've never seen a Tier 1 asset sold at 'firesale' prices as they tend to be rare finds and very desireable.

The sp was trading at 35p a few years ago and the company is in better shape now. Unfortunately, markets view big assets like Tier 1 mines as a potential black hole for capex especially block cave mining and in higher inflationary times. But super majors know block caving well and they know the risk vs reward.

SOLG are priced low as it's potentially 2 years away from derisking the asset so market see's no interest in priving anything in until it either sees a bid or can see some major derisking being done. Since gaining the $750m pencilled funding deal, the CEO has delivered zero operationl updates/performance. So weak comms from management as well as not having a chairman makes the business look a bit 'incapable' and 'unprofessional' all round. Hence the discount.

Based on data available, it's not the II's that are selling as bulk of them sold long ago when CGP took over.

There's clearly a larger buyer and a large seller which the mm's are getting done at 7.2p levels.

Based on lack of TR1's, it's either sub 3% holders or sub 5% holders (international basis).

Thus far the only major holder that seems to have reduced stock is TENSTAR. According to some, they are a direct related party to MATHER. If true, then it's related party dealings. So my assumption would be that it's not to do with Mather. It's nothing to do with NMM or BHP as the would have to declare if they went sub 10%.

So who is it?? SOLG management will know and by default have a duty to inform the market.