Member Info for Fortissimo

So many twists and turns it's hard to know what's good or bad. For instance... if we struck big on RIO's first hole, would that have triggered BHP into action? Would that have seen us taken out without PFS and Porvenir PEA? I was always invested in SOLG based on two key catalysts... 1. ENSA/Alpala sale or entire SOLG sale and 2. Exploration with RIO being my main interest.

So like many on here, I'm pretty miffed to see that last $78m funding round deliver almost next to zero exploration. That's the sore point for me. A company can't go to market saying they need funds to explore and they have 6 tier 1 style targets and then 12 months later do zero yet burn through all the cash on salaries and jetting around the world doing presentations that are like something from Jackanory. Devoid of reality and full of dreams! Where's the $78m gone Darryl??

DBW, we did have a period a while ago (18months) whereby we had numerous exploration drills underway. With each hole result, the market just shrugged it off as if it was irrelevant. Porvenir Hole 1 was the only time I think I've seen the SP leap into life. The share price rose from 28p to test 43p+ on that Porvenir discovery. Yes wouldn't we all like events like that one again?? But the truth is, even after the event, the market just deflates interest. It's like Porvenir never happened. It's like valuestone didn't invest $5m+ at 32p in Porvenir alone. FWIIW... it's highly likely that Porvenir will be SOLG's (or some partners) first producing asset. It's perfect for a solaris/lundin partner deal as all the infrastructure is there. Personally, I'd see NCM more interested in buying into or the full 100% of Porvenir than getting involved in full on Alpala.

I think it's fairly obvious now why SOLG haven't done any partner deals or farm outs on grass roots. The conclusion is that BHP want it all and SOLG know that. So are literally baby sitting these blocks until BHP makes their move. Why they would do this is anyones guess... but perhaps any monetisation of the assets or relinquishment of ownership etc is a condition of BHP standing aside and letting SOLG soldier on and prove up Porvenir and Alpala to full potential. Sometimes you have to scratch the devils back if you want to live a bit longer?

Inflation headline numbers are going to plummet soon due to the gov intervention and capping of prices. Next up will be Putin and Ukraine arriving at some kind of peace deal which will have markets chirping into Spring 2023.

The more the Fed hike in 2022, the less they will hike in 2023. So don't be surprised to see 0.75pts again and possibly the same again before y/e. They want to kitchen sink it in 2022 so they can then flatline or minor increase rates in 2023. You might get 0.25pts per quarter in 2023. But that's not going to feel too worrisome when GDP figures look brighter.

There's a lot of nasty events in play right now which are likely to fade away in the next 3 months+.

I think you'll see markets start to rebound now as the biggest sign that pain is over is the governments intervene (like they are with energy crisis) and effectively take on the risk or take away risk from markets.

Of course kicking the can down the road is a common theme but it was done with covid and now looks like it's being done with energy. Remember, markets bounced back strong after government intervention on covid. Rates are a broad brush and the big test comes 3 years from now (post elections etc) as tax rises begin to kick in and they will be needed. Which means rates will need to fall. And they will.

DBW, agree and quite confident that a 'move' will be made even if it's a 'Mather' Consortium offering a low ball. If BHP decide to step aside, then Mather and his consortium walk away with it on the cheap. Mather can trigger this when he likes and in effect should be win win. Lets face it, we've been playing cat and mouse for the last 2 years+ so the likes of the advisors in Citi et al will have plan A, B, C and D. But I'm pretty sure the AGM is a lottery in terms of predictions. Doing a deal with NCM and BHP might be a way to save the BoD's necks but they still face the chance of having over 50%+ vote them out.

I can hear BHP on the phone now... look Nick... do this deal with us now and we'll vote you in at the AGM and give you couple of years to explore rest of folio. Sound good?

That's my only worry. BoD's do a deal to save their own bacon. That kind of thing never ends well imho.

Either the mm's are having a day off or someone somewhere knows something is coming as they don't appear to want any pi trading this morning. Spread wider than usual and no one is jostling for position on the book.

AGM nears with every day and unless they deliver a minor dilutive scenario combined with some great news... the lot of them are in for the chop. Worth noting that many of the 'old school' have already fallen.

forgot to add... my car is worth more today on a YTD basis... funny old world innit? It should have depreciated by a sizeable wedge but instead it defies all past market historic pricing.

IAG down 31% YTD too. Not surprising really when you account for fuel costs and airline issues/airport of late.

Not sure why SOLG should be 31% down on a YTD basis after delivering a very solid and industry expert backed PFS with plenty of upside left in it (PFS2/DFS).

But that's markets for you.

Apparently GGP have millions and millions of resources... yet down 48% on a YTD basis.

Conclusion... markets are not a valuation tool. They are just a trading facility.

The post covid hangover is the main culprit for inflation. Trouble is, when Covid ended (or became something we were happy to live with post vaccinations etc) the world did not go back to normal. A new dynamic appeared called the 'homeworker'. Now this person (persons in their billions across the globe) are richer than ever before. Their disposable cash has doubled or tripled. In a nut shell the little guy got richer and doesn't want to be poor again. So he/she is not going to go back to spending £5k of their own cash on trains and commuting per year. £3k on office clothes/shoes etc. £3k+ on lunches. And prob £4k+ on after work events. Net saving around £15k. Now there's not much the BoE can do to get that £15k out of their pockets no matter what they do with rates. Many have fixed rate mortgages.. many don't need cars like they did before. Energy hurts all but these homeworkers can handle it. When 30%+ of the world's workforce suddenly starts working from home... the system gets turned upside down. But there are pros for business too. Big office blocks are no longer needed. These can go to residential now and help with the housing crisis and line a lot of property folks pockets. Pollution drops. Traffic drops. Quality of life improves... the list goes on. Plenty of cons too for the service sector that depended on the commuter/office worker from sandwich shops to office cleaners and so on.

I guess what I am saying in blunt terms is that raising 'rates' is not the answer. Getting people back into the work place is the answer and if that's not possible... then a new way of thinking is required. What that might be is anyones guess. But hurting people through rate rises is an old tool and we live in a new world now with very different dynamics and challenges.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/turquoise-hill-minority-shareholder-not-interested-rio-tintos-33-bln-offer-2022-09-01/

Above shows some minority shareholders digging in but yesterday Rio entered into an DAA so looks like it's going through at $43 a share.

That's a steal for RIO although worth noting they did open with a low ball offer and then upped it to $43 soon after it was declined.

Oz Minerals and BHP news should be out soon. Last offer was poor by BHP so will be interesting to see what they come up with next and how Oz Minerals go about defending it.

M&A alive and kicking out there although you wouldn't know reading some of the negativity on SOLG of late. Some folk just can't see the bigger picture even when it is staring them in the face.

I would comment but got hammered into the last time I gave an opinion. But a few facts speak for themselves. Volume UP. Share price DOWN.

Oh Bozi... I see you retreat to the usual 'attack' as the best form of defence.

I'm just following the company the company like everyone else and using the material that they release as the factual position. And you call that misinformation?? Ironically... I partly agree but that's the company 'misinforming' not me.

You keep on posting the negative stuff and praying for that cheap equity raise as we all know that's what you want. But that's not what the majority of us want at all.

Are you invested in any other stocks or is SOLG your only stock investment?? Just curious?

Bozi,

"we have zero regional activity with no prospects of this changing until further funding is secured " END

That's not quite true. You keep throwing these little negative bombs out there and it's misinformation which is not great at all.

There is regional activity albeit limited. It's called Porvenir. And as you know, SOLG are in discussions with interested parties with regard to JV deals on some of the grass root and regional projects. So more than possible that regional activity commences without any funding at all.

The lower the sp is, the less likely a fund raise. It's likely to push SOLG toward doing a different kind of deal. And quite frankly, after raising $78m+ last year on the basis of an aggressive exploration plan and then delivering virtually zero exploration but somehow burning through that cash... well... I can't see them getting more funds via the market on 'false pretences'. Investors don't like being duped.

With 60+ licence blocks with a minimum spend attached of $430m (roughly $7m) per licence... many would like to know what SOLG are doing about this great acreage??? Last year they handed back 10 licence blocks for nothing.

Lets keep it factual.

I can't give you any advice I'm afraid as not regulated to do so. Nor anyone else for that matter. But worth remembering that there were plenty of buyers filling their boots at 32p+ not long ago and that includes likes of Blackrock, Norges and others. So in theory... unless anything has changed asset wise, reasons to buy at 18p looks well founded. The risk of missing out on the upside from here looks higher than what the downside has potentially on offer. Markets usually get around to balancing the risk vs reward out so on that basis, I'd expect mid 20's to return pretty soon. Historically (on a 3 to 4 year basis) the share price hasn't remained sub 20p level for very long.

Hope that helps.

I'm looking forward to seeing the annual report and in particular the detail around the cash spend.

As we know from last years report, two equity raisings totalling US$78.8 million (Valuestone in November 2020 and institutional and private investors in April 2021) were done and the ENSA funding of $100m came via Franco deal.

So my question to Darryl, Mather and the BoD's as a whole is where exactly did the $78.8m go?? We know we have around $25m+ left in the bank but that's mainly down to Franco's $100m pile. So back to the burning question... the company raised $78.8m with the signalled purpose of delivering a robust exploration phase across many high impact targets. That's what the cash was for (along with usual working capital).

So what did we get for $78.8m? One hole on Rio? A few more holes on Porvenir and and and and?? I'm struggling to find the aggressive exploration plans that the company promised. Now, I don't mind if they want to stop exploration... and conserve cash... but that's based on conserving cash... and erm... I can't see any conserving going on. Not can I see any exploration going on.

So putting the major shareholders issues aside on funding, lets be blunt here... SOLG sold the market a curve ball and a fraud one at that. They raised $78m+ from investors on the basis of the need to 'explore' the folio. And I'm afraid they have delivered very little exploration at all. In fact, the company confirmed that no exploration was being done and that was as early as Jan/Feb of this year.

I'm beginning to think that it's not just the major shareholders that have issues over SOLG's equity raise promises...and rightfully so. The company says they are doing XYZ and they need $78m to do it. They then do almost zero... yet still seem to spend the $78m+.

I'm at a loss to where this cash has gone and it's on your watch Darryl... so looking forward to the Annual report.

And before anyone asks... I'm fully invested, no short term trading (apart from adding a large wedge at 18p recently) and still very bullish of this seeing the end game. But like all Account periods... comes accountability. And this one is going to need some explaining.

addicknt, equity raise for the regionals is not the only option. They have been in talks with interested parties and strategic partners for almost two years now so don't be surprised if you suddenly get a deal announced on grass root projects /farm outs and possibly some kind of partner deal with Solaris on Warintza drill (surrounding area/SOLG licence blocks etc).

We know SOLG can't continue to fund all these 60 concesssions / licences so they have to resolve this conundrum for the market and investors as all have been kept waiting for too long now. It's not just 'put up or shut up' aimed at BHP and NCM... it's fast emerging the same for SOLG's BoD's ahead the AGM... we've had plenty of 'talk and promises' but zero delivered. So they better have a market pleasing answer for the regionals soon or it's p45's time as relinquishment of blocks is just poor management and loss of shareholder value.

After 10 year+ I can't see Mather positioned for 'wishful thinking'. He's too smart for that. Irwin and Mather seem quite happy at present so I think it's more of a case of 'wishful thinking' applying to the two trouble makers in NCM and BHP.

But guess we'll find out soon. No major holdings RNS's for a while suggests all involved are going no where fast and sitting tight.

Or do a boliden deal....

Lets face it.. the only shareholders that don't want a boliden deal is NCM and BHP.

All this chatter of equity raises is just nonsense and less and less likely the lower the sp goes.

Of course, if I had sold out at 30p and wanted a 15p equity raise then I too would be banging on about it as a smart idea lol!

There's no way on this plant that Mather is going to allow a dilutive fund raise. He's already proven his desire to avoid such raises by delivering the Franco $100m deal last year.

However, there are two key points that need mentioning as a few on here seem to forget...

1. Royalty stream can only be done for ENSA (at the moment) as secured upon the asset not the shares/listed SOLG company.
2. Exploration funding for regionals cannot be done based on the ENSA asset, is must be ring fenced and used for regionals and working capital etc

You can't blend the two together. Hence why the major shareholders could not agree on the 'structure' of the funding.

So likely that large finance required comes via royalty and smaller raise comes for regionals which of course would be a carbon copy of last year... why wouldn't they do the same again?? It worked last time. Fuch the likes of BHP and NCM... they haven't offered an alternative deal as far as we know and until they do... they best keep out of it.

I think lowest equity raise over the last 5 years+ has been 21p but I could be wrong. Market conditions and issues in Ecuador have been much much worse than they are today. On the whole, SOLG are in a stronger position today than they were after the last 26p placing. The share price did dip to 12p/13p when the world was ending after Covid. The DOW at the same time was just 19k. So lets compare all that to where we are today.

DOW still 31k+ today. That's a long way from 19k covid woes. Yet comparables ... SOLG was just 4.5p shy of the COVID low when it tested 17p lows this week.

Volume has been low, no major holdings RNS's from big holders. Just weak liquidity in summer drift market and some flip flappers ... and hey presto you have a stock well undervalued and well oversold.

Keep focused guys.

as share prices go down and in SOLG's case ' halved' in just a couple of months, you get squeezes on all kind of investors whether cfd's or long positions, spread bettors due to leverage and margins. So you get forced sellers. That often can be seen when TA is involved. Breaks of 20p support normally result in corrective moves to next support levels and so on.

One thing is pretty clear, and that is volume is still low and the big boys are not selling at all. The reason why they are not buying in the open market like before is because they are all awaiting the SOLG's guidance on equity raises or other funding structures. Like I said... if SOLG go down the Boliden route then I think you'd see a huge share correction back to the mid 30's in no time. Why? Because that would signal several things... 1. no equity dilution... although still need a $20m tranche or more for regionals... 2. BHP and NCM put in their box... so will they come out fighting with an offer or bid. 3. fully funded and no risk to downside ahead of PFS2 and porvenir pea.

Get the royalty deal done pronto and this could double as those on sidelines scrabble to get back in after selling out on the basis of an equity raise.

The Franco deal was great and really showed the market we can monetise without equity dilution. That was a big turning point so it's no wonder NCM and BHP want to knock that one on its head.

You can't take short term share prices as a basis for a sudden 'bite your hand off' attitude. That's nonsense. Look at Rio and turquoise hill. Shareholders didn't bite their hand off and their share price was at multi year lows. Rio then came back and upped the offer and shareholders still seem reluctant. Same could be said of Oz Minerals.

I think some on here forget that we have a monster size resource folio with Tier 1 project status. Ironically, NCM were calling Fruita Norte 'tier 1' when they did a stream finance deal. Compare that mine to Alpala and see what you get.

Unfortunately markets are markets and the share price reflects the markets view not the asset values. The latter only really catches up in full when a bid or offer arrives. Until then it's as discounted as the market pleases. Share prices go up and down and all over the place but they usually arrive at proper market value when the hammer falls or ink is dry. If Darryl or SOLG did a large equity raise now at 18p levels I think they'd be guaranteed to see their P45's come Dec AGM. They may as well hoist the for sale sign and book their nice options. SOLG have been flip flapping around buying time or stringing out time for the last 3 years and in that period they have eventually delivered PFS and a share price that is at multi lows!! What's to say that they don't arrive at DFS and are at even lower multi lows?? The point is... there comes a point whereby you have taken a project fair enough. Then you seek a strategic deep pocketed partner or an asset sale and rinse and repeat.

We've lost a completed year when not comes to exploration which is a huge shame. We might have found some huge holes with resources greater than Alpala hole 5 etc by now. And that would have only costs a small raise of $30m back in April.