Member Info for Fortissimo

Sharketmare,

What a load of nonsense ...

Are you aware of Twiggy and Ecuador??

"In Ecuador, Fortescue operates under the subsidiary Ecuador Fortescue SAN/A.
Fortescue are the second-most active explorer in Ecuador after SolGold, with 32 exploration concessions for porphyry copper deposits awarded in the provinces of Pichincha, Bolivar, Guayas, Chimborazo, Los Rios and Zomora-Chinchipe, in lands that belong to indigenous Shuar, Kichwa and mestizo populations. FMG are also exploring for minerals in Colombia and Argentina, with a further 65 concession applications lodged in Colombia for copper and gold." END.

Wyloo and Fortescue go hand in hand. Twiggy being the common denominator. He's already all over Ecuador and many other areas around the world.

The FTSE100 is up 3% YoY yet looking at the commodity sector and miners you'd think it's market carnage out there.

All is fine across markets in general. It's not as doom and gloom as many make out and inflation is likely to peak in next month and then start falling.

The sad state of affairs on SOLG is that even at 17.6p range, the volume is pony. Not even 600k traded. Even red knight could account for that in a trade or two. It's bonkers. Makes no sense at all.

Ortherncopper,

I'm a GGP shareholder now after waiting many moons for reality to align with the sp and present some decent value. I wasn't lucky enough to buy at 1p before the exploration success and applaud those that got in early although not those that still held on after the 37p+ spike ! But guess what I am saying is that there are phases through exploration and development which suit different types of shareholders. Some will be happy with buying loads of SOLG at 32p+ like Valuestone, Blackrock and Norges. Pi's tend to be the opposite and rather than build positions, they go 'all in' and then often 'all out' as you well know.

But can we stop applauding GGP for achieving full funding and bashing SOLG for apparent failure to fund. They are pl;oes apart and GGP's recent funding was POOR in the context of the overall GGP story. Hanging onto just a 30% stake is POOR too. But that's the way GGP went. SOLG have gone another way. Retained 85% (less recent royalty) and are debt free (no bank loans). Now here's the bit you need to acknowledge... SOLG got away $178m of funding with $78m equity raise at 26p levels and 32p along with $100m from Franco. There was no giving away warrants. No massive dilution or capital raises at share price lows like GGP. There was no major lining of pockets on newly appointed staff (to the level of GGP).

So last and final point... GGP have raised potentially $340m+ inc bank loans and are fully funded. But that's based on 30% of the project and some exploration across folio. It's not $2.7bln is it?? SOLG's challenge is about 9 times that of GGP. SOLG have around (roughly) 20 x the gold resources (as mine plan) that GGP have. Buckets loads of copper that GGP don't have and yet both companies are remarkably valued at about the same market cap today. And that's before GGP's dilution hits post EGM.

So lets keep it comparable. SOLG are a 'proper' Tier 1 asset holding company. GGP have a minor slice of a very small tier 1 if at all tier 1 asset.

You are comparing a 2 bad flat conversion project with a tower block development. SOLG are finding out the reality now of the project task ahead (after all the talk) and we know that it has to be resolved soon or else Lasso et al will be asking for some licence blocks back and starting to create red tape rather than cut it. He needs Alpala moving fast ahead of Ecuador elections in 2.5 years time.

I'm a new shareholder. I waited for derisking events to occur and believe all are baked in. Whilst the usually overhang tends to linger a bit post finance rounds, I think the scene is now set for a sustained rally. NCM may have some more games up their sleeve (delays, increased Capex etc) but these are not likely to work in their favour now forrest involved. All it means is that Forrest/Wyloo will get a bigger slice as more funds will be provided in exchange for equity. If NCM has dreams of making a dart for GGP, then they'll have to act quickly as won't be too long before Wyloo have a solid 20%+ stake here imho. And it's that kind of protection / support that GGP needed most. It probably offsets the dilution issues (a bit) but keeps NCM in their box. FWIIW, I think Forrest might have a wider plan under Fortesque... to take NCM out. I think the latter are sitting prey for Twiggy or possibly BHP. If BHP swallowed NCM, then that might also help their ambitions on SOLG.

Lots of M&A likely throughout min ing sector over next 18 months. GL to all holders, new and old.

You can't look at it like that. It's not about 2 year lows or anything to do with the share price level. It's about valuation of the asset. There was a committee or independent valuation done which valued the 5% at $60m or thereabouts. On top of this you have bank loan debt which is based on the assets and the projected revenue from the 30% ownership. The reality is, the share price has realigned with the asset and all funding is based around that. The upside scenario is clearly all about the production profiles going forward. Will NCM maintain 160koz plan or will they decide to ramp that up to 250koz including Capex costs etc?? GGP appears to have funded itself based on small uplift/inflation costs and some spare cash for exploration. But it's very likely that another fund raise will be required should NCM step the mine up by 50%. In that instance, it's likely that Wyloo will come forward and fund more, my guess is up to around 29%. Very similar process to the Noront Resources stake and the bid battle that ensued. Wyloo have their teeth in now and highly likely they will not let go. That's the good news. Should NCM step the mine plan up by 50% then that's good news too as Wyloo backing GGP adds support in eyes of market. But cash is not free and if more of it is needed, then more fund raisers will be done. That's life as an exploration business ... until production revenues arrive of course.

So look at it as a funding round / phase based on where the mine is now and not where the share price is. Add more value to the mine/development/production profile etc and the share price will track higher and so will future capital raises... at a higher price. For now... it's all been based around that NCM 5% valuation. Unfair? Yes... but that's life and NCM knew what they were doing. Now that game is up, I expect the mine plan to be adjusted and moved to 240koz minimum. Probably after the first years rev has cleared some of the Capex costs.

There is another possibility which would fit with the broader market trend of late of aggressive albeit cheeky M&A (aka Turquoise hill/rio and BHP/OZ Minerals.

What if Wyloo/Fortesque have a planned move for Newcrest?? We all know that NCM shareholders are not too happy with Biswaz. Share price at yearly lows or worse. Twiggy may well be after NCM lock stock and barrel and securing GGP at this price level presents a nice discount compared to if it landed in NCM's lap.

It's all manic buying out there by the miners according to many sources and quality assets are not easy to find. It's a bun fight and consolidation very likely amongst the big boys and even likes of Glencore not safe from predators.

Be interesting to see how JPM manage that 0.5% short. If they were acting for or on behalf of Wyloo then in theory they should close it out, probably with minimal effect on the sp. If they were acting on behalf of Newcrest, then they might need to buy that wedge back fairly soon. If they were just taking a position based on known / lower equity raise then in theory they need to unwind as major risk events have closed here today although always a risk to development timelines and costs etc.

It's minor at 0.5% but surprised they didn't unwind some of it when sp was Lowe 8's and after the private equity raise some weeks ago.

JPM don't appear to be involved at all with the syndicate banks on the loan deal. ANZ, HSBC and ING are very capable and not of JPM's services.

Lots of new noses in the troughs at prices from 8.3p to 10p and 11.9p options. They will want their pay day. Overall, if NCM were dragging their feet before, I can't see them continuing down that road as there's no advantage to them now. If anything, it makes sense for them to accelerate the project assuming the 5% option has full lapsed.

Ortherncopper,

Don't confuse speed of development or to production as speed of equity distribution/value. Both very different. SOLG have an asset that is multiple times larger than GGP's. It costs more and takes longer to develop. GGP's 30% stake is likely to deliver around 48koz per annum based on NCM's mining plan.

Lets be clear here. One is peanuts... and the other is billions and billions. That's why you have likes of Franco willing to stick $100m into SOLG rather than GGP. Or Norges buying in millions of SOLG shares and ignoring GGP. Lets not get into comparing GGP with SOLG. The latter is in another world class of it's own and takes much more time than some medium 160koz project.

There are miners out there producing 70koz which are valued at a fraction of GGP's market cap so there's already loads baked into GGP based on other resource opportunities.

I'm happy to take a punt on GGP at 9p as think it's a good trading share and in all funding scenarios like this one (GGP) there's always some 'pump' to follow which the smart ones will sell into.

But don't get me wrong... I like the deal with Wyloo... but that's based on me having zero dilution and a buy price just a smidge above their's.

I'm as happy as Wyloo you could say.

I mentioned the other day that the mm's seem to have gone awol. I'm now beginning to realise that we might have two books in play. One for pi's and one for the big boys who judging by volume seem to be tied to some kind of confidentiality agreement that prohibits trading eg... they have inside info so can't trade..... yet.

Just hunches on my part but think that's why you've got an order book that looks like it's trading candy bars and an order book (after hours) that seems to be slipping through multi million (volume) trades.

I expect they'll align both books at some point ... when the news drops no doubt.

Off book deals quite common these days and designed to mask real events yet the FCA do nothing about it. Tut tut!

"There's a reason after all why SOLG is in the 18s and struggling to move higher. Because financing needs are upon us." END

Bozi, if that's the reason, could you explain to me the 'reason' why Norges and Blackrock were buying large chunks in the 32p to 35p levels?

What would be the reason for that?

"The GGP board really are showing a rate of progress, speed of developments, acumen and clear direction that puts Solgs board to shame.." END

Orpherncopper... seriously... ?? Do you call doing a fund raise at multi year lows (8p+) as progress? I don't think GGP are a very good example of progress at all. 37p down to 8p and you think it's 'acumen'?

I suspect Wyloo might think it's good acumen !

At the end of the day, it's an example of poor decisions by GGP management over several years. NCM wouldn't have had 70% for a minor spend had GGP acted more like SOLG.

SOLG have 85% of ENSA. And that's a proper tier 1 asset. GGP have 30% of what they claim to be a tier 1 asset although I can't quite see it myself!

I've taken a slice of GGP today as a 'trading' share as think too many noses in the trough at 8p to not see a 12p/13p event in near future. I'll cash in on that move.

But I certainly wouldn't champion GGP as an example of good management or a good fund raise/finance round.

The market wants to know who's running the show ... SOLG Bod's or BHP.

Beaver creek presentation tomorrow. Might get something 'updated' tomorrow.

Failing that... MD&A and annual report due in under 3 weeks. All coming to head now and AGM in under 11 weeks.

I do wonder whether they will SET UP and EGM at the AGM if you follow... make shareholders vote for a particular deal (with gun to the head) which would include voting certain management in.

One thing we do know is that BoD's always try and save their own butts first!

Hedge funds often use copper as their go to trade when markets look like going bearish. They sell it hard. What they don't like is when copper remains firm against weaker market. When the market turns (and there are signs that inflation will peak earlier now) copper should be the first to move.

If ever there was a window of opportunity to strike a bid on SOLG (while at lows) now would be it. Tick tock. We are into the game time now summer drift over. Roll up roll up!

Looks like twiggy strikes again. NCM must be spitting bullets. Perhaps they'll learn that squeezing the little guys just means pushing the asset into some other companies hands on the cheap. Wyloo kicking @rse again.

Twiggy really doesn't like NCM and BHP by looks of things!

The problem this time around is that it's not just a fund raise for working capital and exploration like many years (excluding Franco PFS deal).

Now, the forward funding story essentially becomes entwined in the present funding story if you follow. So these are the funding requirements with rough dates... this is the reality that the market is now throwing back at SOLG.

My figures but roughly accurate based on past RNS's and benchmarks:

What's needed cash wise:
Stage 1
1. Working capital of around $3m per month ($36m YoY)
2. Exploration spend as per years prior $3m per month ($36m YoY)
3. ENSA DFS - $50m (assuming the Franco top up was intended for overruns)
4. Grass root folio x 50 odd licences require $7m each (approx) possibly 10 of these required before 2023 end. $70m or relinquish them.

Total $200m approx or $130m (assumes licence relinquishments)

Stage 2. This is the biggy...first funding round post DFS... $500m?? Q1 2024
Stage 3. This is a biggy...second funding round post DFS... $500m?? Q1 2025
Stage 4. This is a biggy...second funding round post DFS... $500m?? Q1 2026
Stage 5. This is a biggy...second funding round post DFS... $500m?? Q1 2027
Stage 6. This is a biggy...second funding round post DFS... $500m?? Q1 2028
Stage 7. This is a biggy...second funding round post DFS... $500m?? Q1 2029

Total $3bln (there's no way it's going to be below that). Production commences circa 2029.

In between all of that you have funding requirements of around $600m for Porvenir although I'm sure this could be lower and stacked but we await for the PEA.

So the trouble SOLG have now (compared to past) is that the chickens have come home to roost. The market doesn't have 24 months+ grace before the big funding rounds hit. This time, it's on the doorstep and you have various grades of investors all interested in entering / funding the company but NOT UNTIL they know how the company is going to deal with stages 1 through to 7. No one wants to take part in a large equity raise at say 26p (like last year $78m) if they know there's a larger raise coming 12 months later at 20p or lower. There are investors that want to fund ENSA but have no interest in funding SOLG exploration folio (eg SOLG shareholders). Their are investors that don't want ENSA diluted with royalties and shareholders that don't want to be diluted via equity raises.

At the moment, SOLG shareholders have been told via the PFS what ENSA is going to cost. Lets go with $2.7bln for now.
What shareholders have not been told is what the capital requirements are to get to the end of DFS. And that's appalling communication by the company. Shareholders don't know when the 60 odd licence blocks expire... what are the dates please Darryl?? And shareholders don't know where the $78m has gone that was raised for WCapital but mostly for exploration?

A clear 'plan' is required for the full forward 24 months not just 12months. Strategic / partner deals are needed for sur

"he has been instrumental in the delivery of major resource projects that resulted in nine corporate takeovers and over 5 billion dollars to shareholders." END

Bozi, we have a copper shortage looming in 2024/2025, shortage of mining investment and resources dropping fast across the majors. With a background like that coupled with Mather's 'proven' ability to monetise, I think we'll do well. There's every possibility that Copper will be priced nearer $7.50 than $3.50 by the time Alpala produces as the world will be well on the way to full electrification.

Mathers got about 11 weeks left based on the upcoming AGM. September will be over quick. Then just October/November to go.

There's no way he's going into that AGM without a plan. Not long now.

Just a reminder why SOLG won't be going for a low ball. NM has been around the block for decades and he's proven to deliver shareholder value. Sit tight... it's coming.

Nicholas Mather biography

Nicholas Mather is an Chief Executive Officer, Executive Director of the company. He is Chief Executive Officer and Executive Director, appointed 11 May 2005, graduated in 1979 from the University of Queensland with a B.Sc. (Hons, Geology). Mr. Nicholas Mather has a special area of experience and expertise in the generation of, and entry into undervalued or unrecognised resource exploration opportunities. He has been involved in the junior resource sector at all levels for more than 30 years. In that time, he has been instrumental in the delivery of major resource projects that resulted in nine corporate takeovers and over 5 billion dollars to shareholders. Mr Mather was co-founder of Arrow Energy NL (an ASX-listed company) and was responsible for the generation of its Surat Basin Coal Bed Methane project and served as an Executive Director until 2004. He was also founder and Chairman of Waratah Coal Inc. until it was acquired in December 2008 and co-founder and Non-Executive Director of Bow Energy Limited until its recent takeover by Arrow Energy Pty Ltd. In January 2012 Mr Mather and the DGR Global team founded Orbis Gold in 2006 and continued to hold a significant equity stake and board position through to its takeover in February of 2015. Previously as CEO of BeMax Resources NL (an ASX-listed company), Mr Mather headed the discovery of the company's Pooncarie mineral sands project in 1998. He has also been a Non-Executive Director of Ballarat Goldfields, having assisted with the recapitalisation of the company in 2002. Mr Mather is Managing Director and Chief Executive of DGR Global, Executive Chairman of Armour Energy Limited (an ASX-listed company) and Non-Executive Director of IronRidge Resources Limited (an AIM-listed company), Dark Horse Resources Limited (an ASX-listed company), Aus Tin Mining Limited (an ASX-listed company) and Lakes Oil NL (an ASX-listed company).

So many twists and turns it's hard to know what's good or bad. For instance... if we struck big on RIO's first hole, would that have triggered BHP into action? Would that have seen us taken out without PFS and Porvenir PEA? I was always invested in SOLG based on two key catalysts... 1. ENSA/Alpala sale or entire SOLG sale and 2. Exploration with RIO being my main interest.

So like many on here, I'm pretty miffed to see that last $78m funding round deliver almost next to zero exploration. That's the sore point for me. A company can't go to market saying they need funds to explore and they have 6 tier 1 style targets and then 12 months later do zero yet burn through all the cash on salaries and jetting around the world doing presentations that are like something from Jackanory. Devoid of reality and full of dreams! Where's the $78m gone Darryl??

DBW, we did have a period a while ago (18months) whereby we had numerous exploration drills underway. With each hole result, the market just shrugged it off as if it was irrelevant. Porvenir Hole 1 was the only time I think I've seen the SP leap into life. The share price rose from 28p to test 43p+ on that Porvenir discovery. Yes wouldn't we all like events like that one again?? But the truth is, even after the event, the market just deflates interest. It's like Porvenir never happened. It's like valuestone didn't invest $5m+ at 32p in Porvenir alone. FWIIW... it's highly likely that Porvenir will be SOLG's (or some partners) first producing asset. It's perfect for a solaris/lundin partner deal as all the infrastructure is there. Personally, I'd see NCM more interested in buying into or the full 100% of Porvenir than getting involved in full on Alpala.

I think it's fairly obvious now why SOLG haven't done any partner deals or farm outs on grass roots. The conclusion is that BHP want it all and SOLG know that. So are literally baby sitting these blocks until BHP makes their move. Why they would do this is anyones guess... but perhaps any monetisation of the assets or relinquishment of ownership etc is a condition of BHP standing aside and letting SOLG soldier on and prove up Porvenir and Alpala to full potential. Sometimes you have to scratch the devils back if you want to live a bit longer?

Inflation headline numbers are going to plummet soon due to the gov intervention and capping of prices. Next up will be Putin and Ukraine arriving at some kind of peace deal which will have markets chirping into Spring 2023.

The more the Fed hike in 2022, the less they will hike in 2023. So don't be surprised to see 0.75pts again and possibly the same again before y/e. They want to kitchen sink it in 2022 so they can then flatline or minor increase rates in 2023. You might get 0.25pts per quarter in 2023. But that's not going to feel too worrisome when GDP figures look brighter.

There's a lot of nasty events in play right now which are likely to fade away in the next 3 months+.

I think you'll see markets start to rebound now as the biggest sign that pain is over is the governments intervene (like they are with energy crisis) and effectively take on the risk or take away risk from markets.

Of course kicking the can down the road is a common theme but it was done with covid and now looks like it's being done with energy. Remember, markets bounced back strong after government intervention on covid. Rates are a broad brush and the big test comes 3 years from now (post elections etc) as tax rises begin to kick in and they will be needed. Which means rates will need to fall. And they will.