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addicknt, a few weeks back I highlighted that some bedwetters would likely get hung up ob the 'going concern' statement. That was after the funding 'test the market' RNS. It was clear then that the auditors would have to sign off on the basis that the business was going concern through to year end.

I can't explain it but just something in my gut tells me that the lower the sp the better the 'royalty' deal will be received and thus suits SOLG if that was their plan A back in July. Doesn't suit BHP or NCM... but with an SP sub 20p any equity raise against a royalty deal is far too expensive. Perhaps this is what Mather wanted? If they do the royalty deal, BHP can't really complain. Furthermore, the sp will correct fast once the vultures realise that SOLG has the funds for 12months+. Bit of temporary pain for longer term gain??

Mather will have had a plan and Irwin quiet too. Remember, he needs SOLG on his side... CGP are vulnerable if someone takes over the reigns of SOLG and then squeezes CGP on that 15% stake and bags it for $3.5m.

addicknt, I flagged the incoming standard accounts 'going concern' statement weeks ago for you. It wasn't a surprise to me. It seems like a surprise to you? We're you expecting them to go into admin today??

I suspect Darryl's little snap shot of analysts and investors at the Cascabel outcrop was a softener for the more intelligent out there who would see it as confirmation that funding activity/reccy's etc are going on.

Markets are ugly at the moment and SP would be sub 15p anyway today. Sub 13p was likely culmination of stop losses and or some 'going concern' bedwetters.

AGM in under 9 weeks (poss 10 if they kick it back). If they want to save their jobs, they will need to deliver the following:

1. PFS2 (at least $400m uplift, but will they need to adjust copper pricing/inflation costs too?)
2. Porvenir PEA
3. Funding package / strategic partner deal which sees us through 12 months minimum - 18months more ideal.
4. Exploration plans/ drill dates and so on

If the above is less than convincing (eg they need to blow the doors off) then heads are going to roll. I can't see Norges or Blackrock voting for Darryl and co if it's going to look like another year of blowing $70m on virtually next to nothing.

They've drained almost $178m since last April and whilst I like Tandy and Porvenir... that's pretty expensive just for those two plus some PFS scribbles. Land acquisitions were always going to be tough as many dig their heals in. SOLG better suited to deal with these issues than BHP as the latter just make the locals dig heals in deeper! Hence why BHP are happy to see SOLG do that leg work.

Look lets get real here.... the market has wanted a sale for a couple of years now. Majority of shareholders have wanted a sale for a few years now if not the last year for sure. Not many believed the we can go it alone story but it supports higher bids if proven possible.

So here we are near multi year lows AFTER the PFS which was supposed to put a line in the sand on valuation. So is the market trying to force the issue?

One thing for sure is that if there was ever a time to strike a bid on SOLG now is it.

It might nit have happened the way we wanted it to but the end price can still be near the target should bid war commence. Noront classic example. Ultimately it's about the asset or assets and how much someone wants them. No one is going to allow BHP and co to walk away with it all on a low ball bid of 25p or 30p. NCM will want at least 45p+ imho. Will it get to £1? Who knows but if you asked me if Noront could be sold for 110 cents when it was just 21 cents, I would have said no way. 70 cents at best. So let it soak in... depressed share price equals increased bid potential.

Now the 'going concern' bedwetters have moved on, the share price should begin to reflect the increased likelihood of a sale.

Ortherncopper, if Darryl resigns then in theory Mather should be re-elected. I can't see BHP wanting that.

Wonder what Norges and Blackrock think about all this. And Valuestone? They must be rubbing their hands?

Bozi, don't apply the 'warned you 3 weeks ago' line so broadly. I said the 'going concern' statement would see some bedwetters. Standard accounts stuff.

I called that one right didn't I!

If he remains quiet then I'm beginning to think he really is a BHP stooge. He's done very little to steady the ship and if anything has done a great deal to derail it in terms of zero exploration and telegraphing PFS and Porvenir PEA as by 'end of 2022'.

I wonder if they will go into a cash preservation phase and kick back PFS2 into Q1 2023??

So the world was ending, covid turning the world into mush and SOLG hits 10p levels. After doing PFS and 'world is nigh' fears over (apart from mini recession etc) SOLG is back to COVID lows.

All a bit silly isn't it?

Well - it has to be a royalty deal now as equity raise out of the question.

I did say some numpties would be wetting themselves over a standard accountancy going concern statement. Told 3 weeks ago.

Absolutely no way Mather will do a heavy diluted equity raise at these levels if he was reluctant to do the same when the sp was 26p+.

Boliden deal it is then.

"As Berry said, our board failed to listen to shareholders and is woefully naive about capital markets." END.

Addicknt, give it a rest. Firstly Berry capital are no one. Some pony outfit in suburbs of London. Secondly, as you know the company has many advisers, of which Citi (very large) are one. We have auditors/external accounts advisors and so on. All would have explained to the board what to do and when to do it.

At the end of the day, if BHP wanted to picture a few tyres and take a wheel of SOLG before launching bid... then by blocking funding ... surely that works in their favour then? Skulduggery prior to the last AGM and based on that, likely skullduggery before the fund raise. Nothing to do with management being naive.

Rain coming today, tomorrow apparent cloudy.

Jason Ward $330k+?? Seems excessive compared to other directors. Twigger $110k for what? It's the chairmans job to make sure all are aligned and he's the go between for large investors and management when things get dicey. Did he go missing in action or fail to understand all shareholders interests when discussing or testing the market for funds??

Some eye watering sums being spent and yet very little being delivered outside of the PFS.

$35m spent on Tandy... mmm are we to expect an MRE on that one?? If not... how did we get an MRE on Porvenir based on less spend??

https://www.australianmining.com.au/news/what-does-the-west-musgrave-green-light-mean-for-oz-and-bhp/

In Mather we trust. He has looked out for the little guy from early years and the Franco deal was a real jab to the nose of BHP and NCM. I enjoyed that one. I can't see this mining guru with connections throughout the mining industry being walked into a dark corner without coming out punching.

I might be off track but I just the idea that Mather is leading BHP into making a bid and he knows what is coming next. The problem is... BHP do to and don't want to do it! Fascinating tussle going here and what you would expect for what is probably the greatest gold/copper find in a decade or more.

Sharket, do you know how much they were looking to raise? Do you know the structure of that raise? Do you know whether ENSA was being treated differently to the exploration / licence blocks? You seem to think you know a lot, but in reality you know zilch.

As do many of us... so we join the dots. But your dots are no more complete than mine or others. So just accept the differing views.

And as for Darryl's messages re DFS... erm... if he's told by certain shareholders that a royalty deal is required or since then the share price has dropped to a level that makes a stream deal better than a raise ... then yes... he will change his mind because if he doesn't he'd face the sack. Shareholders own the company... not Darryl. Darryl listens to the shareholders... well he should do!

1. Cornerstone would not likely take up any rights issue/equity raise (they would be forced to sell the rights)
2. DGR would not likely take up any rights issue/equity raise (they would be forced to sell the rights)
3. Telstar would not likely take up any rights issue/equity raise (they would be forced to sell the rights)
4. Mather would not likely take up any rights issue/equity raise (they would be forced to sell the rights)

These guys collectively hold near 25%.

Hence if they were not up for a rights issue or placing, then there's a 25% short fall. Furthermore, you can add a bucket load of pi's and HNWI's which also would not be up for it. Lets say about 15% to 20%.

In a nut shell it's nigh impossible to get away a large fund raise based on open offer or rights issue basis if nearly 45% would not take the rights or placing up. You'd have an overhang that would last for a year+.

Getting away $50m would not be a problem.

At end of the day... it's about getting the funds secured and trying to avoid a broker unwitting which sees bucket loads going into unknown hands. You want to issue equity 'strategically' where possible. So that's why I was hinting that you need a new player to come in like Fortescue or Wyloo or Gina etc as that would avoid BHP and NCm gaining an almost near controlling stake (if the raise was £100m+ or more).

Redknight, I don't think the BoD's vetoed the RI plans (if there were any) I think 25% of shareholders just said NO.

BHP and NCM can cry all they like but if a partner deal is announced (bit like Wyloo and GGP) then it will need a vote at the AGM. And if it gets voted through then BHP and NCM have no reason to complain. Of course... BHP can always offer a buyout. lol!

That's democracy and it's better than being bullied around by the likes of BHP and co.

$500m+ per year is still sizeable outlay with no incoming cashflow until year 5 I think?? That said, we know that Tandy could be producing a lot earlier and contribute to cash flows in year 3 to 5 which might save $200m here or there. As we've seen with RIO and Turquoise Hill, these kind of projects are often better shared with 'investors' than 100% shouldered by the super major. Ecuador is a company maker for a business like NCM or a company wrecker. It's all about the size of the business as a whole and ability to withstand hiccups. The block cave workings are not straightforward and Mother Nature can be a pain in the backside. Ultimately, a project like this suits BHP more than NCM and as we have seen of late, NCM more than happy to take the off take deals in Ecuador (Fruta Del Norte) so they are quite happy with the regional risk levels but on a finance basis.

I get the feeling NCM might be more interested or aligned to Porvenir than Alpala. The Lundin, Solaris, Codelco type mix might be the way to go forward in the South and spreads the risk. A consortium like that sharing infrastructure etc might be the answer but that would not likely suit BHP's business plans... unless BHP are happy with just the North? Doubt it... the entire SOLG folio is the derisking element imho as plenty more ops there should Alpala prove tricky or problematic.

redknight, whilst I agree that £2bln would be drop in the ocean for BHP (even better value based on weak pound) do not forget that with that £2bln comes around $4bln+ in capital commitments. Of course, that gets paid back handsomely from year 5 onwards... but for near term accountancy figures, it's really much more than £2bln. Oz Minerals is around £6bln (if BHP up their offer to $30) so similar type of spend to SOLG (on a full project acquisition basis). Think Oz minerals might have $1bln of finance to sort and some debt but they are a producer to the tune of 2022 production guidance 127,000 - 149,000 tonnes of copper and 208,000 - 230,000 ounces gold.

Apart from the Brazilian assets they are mostly OZ based which again suits BHP. It's a terrific buy if BHP can secure the deal and it looks like it. My question is what appetite does BHP have post OZ Minerals deal and post the recent u-turn on the dirty fossil fuel business through to 2030?? Suddenly the latter is looking a great business again. Due to Putin, BHP and the glove in general become 'dual' energy focussed rather than purely or solely driven to green energy projects.

Of course BHP would like SOLG's Ecuador folio. No doubt about that. But I'm wondering whether recent events have caused them to rethink and opt for producers near term and then look at SOLG type assets in a couple of years or when they are forced to. And perhaps that's where we are now... in the swings of 'forcing' BHP's hand??? I just get the feeling that management have been treading water ticking off the expected derisking milestone but keenly awaiting BHP's move. And it's not come... so I'm genuinely floating it out there to be discussed... is OZ Minerals a better buy than SOLG?? One is around £6bln and there's a chance SOLG could be bought for £2bln although I think Mather wants the £1 so call it £2.4bln. Which would you buy??

addicknt, I could be wrong but think you've got the wrong assumptions there. BHP and NCM are very willing to pile more cash into SOLG for an equity slice. That's always been clear. That's been their game plan since day one. Get as much of the company on cheap equity raises makes sense for them as huge discount to the final offer price. That said, BHP did pay 45p for a wedge some moons ago.

Darryl has already told you that the funding discussions did not arrive at a conclusion due to differing opinions on the 'structure' of that finance. So I think what happened was SOLG presented a structure to BHP and NCM among others and that structure likely resembled this.... $100m via Boliden for ENSA works and $75m for exploration/working capital etc. Basically a rinse and repeat of last year. On the basis of that funding structure... I believe it was likely BHP and NCM said...we don't want that structure and if you go ahead with that we won't be putting in any cash at all. More likely they said they only way they would invest cash into the business is if they got a larger equity slice back eg, they wanted an extra 5% each or something like that fro a £50m each investment and no boliden stream.

Remember.... there was a clear reason why Mather went for the Franco stream deal and the smaller equity raise. It's called dilution. Why would Mather deliver that in 2021 and then just roll over and go with a deeply diluting equity raise in 2022? Why not just do the same again? Of course that's the preferred option and we know NCM and BHP don't like that scenario... and voila here we are with some kind of Mexican stand off with the clock ticking being used as a weapon by some it appears.

Try to look at the events that have past and you'll see the logic and thinking behind them will not have changed. Why would it?

Tesla1, what do you man 'huge amount of cash'? Do you know how much they need to raise? Are you referring to the Capex required to DFS or the Alpala project cost to development?

SOLG raised $178m last year with minimum dilution. Would you call that 'huge amount of cash'? Mather was 2 steps ahead of the big boys when he got that raise away. I guess we'll find out soon whether he's sticking whopping their super major @rses.

The reason the big boys are not buying in the open market right now is most likely down to the Confidentiality agreements they signed. Just because a funding discussion some months ago ended with different views from different major holders, those involved are privy to info that we are not. Many will still have hands tied imho especially if II and analyst visits are ongoing. So that's why there's no major volumes or 'abuse' of positions/knowledge.

Today we've had £285k traded. I'm sorry but for a market of near £400m, it kind of puts it into context doesn't it?

It's been like that for days and weeks now if not months. When we had large volume, it was to the upside. So that's good to remember. All the downside of late has been on very light volume showing no real conviction despite what some on here seem to suggest. If we we're tumbling down to 16p from 26p levels based upon 20m volume days... then I'd be worried indeed.

And finally - I know it sounds like like the same old rampty damply do stuff... but seriously... if ever there was a time for BHP or another to take a dart at SOLG, NOW would be it.

1. Cash pile low and shareholders away the companies solution/funding outlines
2. Many II's and Pi's would be delighted with a cash deal in this current market
3. Currency (pound woes) at present makes SOLG effectively 30% cheaper regardless of the offer price.
4. Weak BoD's, loss of CFO... all that boardroom 'apparent' jiggling around etc etc

That's the magic recipe for low ball takeovers. It's prime time for BHP.

And just imagine if you are an OZ Minerals Shareholder (sizeable one). Right now BHP's offer or possible revised offer of $30 will be a market high for some months / even years. If BHP walk away, Oz Minerals will collapse back down to $16 levels.

This is how the predators work. They present the offer and then let shareholders contemplate the share price based on a failed offer. And they do it in a very uncertain and poor market environment. 2 or 3 years later, things are looking better for the new owner/acquirer and the asset looks a steal.

The fact that BHP haven't made an offer yet might support the idea that they too are worried that if they do, then someone like Wyloo or fortescue could out bid them like on Norornt. So BHP have a chance to 'talk' with SOLG and see if they can tighten their grip on SOLG (from predators) but do so in a way that still allows SOLG to create cabs off the rank (as he says) and so they can keep their jobs and nice bonuses. At the moment, doing a deal that also pledges BoD's their jobs via voting at AGM might also look attractive to all. As if the BoD dish up anything pony, then Pi's will vote them out with force and there's loads of pi's here. Probably over 35%+ of shareholders are pi's or HNWI's (or NON II's) that's my guess.

All to play for but time not on SOLG's side with AGM resolutions due to be presented to shareholders around early NOV.. that's 5 weeks away tops.

'crime acreage' should read 'prime'! Although I think the eco warriors will approve of the former!

gotta love predictive text.