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Govt enthusiasm is based on 2 things, publicvhealth and the economy. Hanc0ck has said on more than 1 occasion the only way out of this is a vaccine with little mention of therapeutics. There has been some BB discussion on the cost of SNG being more expensive than a vaccine or dexamethasone. But if the vaccine is only 50% effective and takes six months to issue to the 50%ish that might take it govt's will need to spend money on treatments. And,yes, SNG will be more expensive than Dexamethasone but it's only suitable for the more seriously unwell and they'll be costing the NHS (and other national health systems elsewhere) more than a course of treatment which could be taken at home. And this would go a long way to addressing govt's economic concern when they all spending billions in various support packages
And if you worked in one of the 8 hospitals used on P2 and knew how good the results were, would you choose a relatively rushed vaccine (without wishing in any way to have a go at the incredible efforts being made by the scientists involved) or an inhaled interferon beta treatment?
And the success stories won't just be confined to the Covid wards and will most likely be shared across Trusts. You could understand why there would be a reluctance
I'm not in the NHS but interesting to hear these concerns. However, I do take a lot of reassurance from what Professor Whitty said several months ago which was essentially 'we may not have an effective vaccine but I'm 100% confident that we will develop treatmemts'. SNG on its own, as a prophylactic and in combination with other treatments should see his statement confirmed in the near future.
I have an interest in the potential wider application of this for future uses, eg would iit help cystic fibrosis suffers overcome infections. The potential for a successful is huge alongside vaccines and other therapeutics
Marr was ridiculously embarrassing when he asked about injecting bleach. Fauci answered diplomatically but the look was 'and you're supposed to be a bbc reporter/journalist'
Fauci saying that it will likely be at least 2nd or 3rd quarter 2021 before they could vaccinate everybody in the US. To be truly effective we probably need to vaccinate something like 2bn people worldwide so that's a huge undertaking by which time the virus could/has mutated meaning the vaccine is less effective (and that assumes that the efficacy rate is around 70% initially).
There will be a need for SNG now, next year, and every year thereafter. We're in a new spike and have to get P3 completed asap to get this to market and with current infection levels we shouldn't have a problem getting 900 patients across 20 countries. Probably get them in the first day of undertaking the trial
Depends on the P3 results but when you read the articles now coming out and today's contributions re Rockefeller then the potential value as a treatment and prophylactic for this virus, COPD, other viruses etc for years to come then you can start to see where these 'wild' values come from.
COPD might not be the driver right now but successful P3 in the next few months will add to the safety data for that. WHO estimates 384m sufferers with 3m dying each year. Large pharma would be clambering over each other to have an effective treatment for some of the most common causes of hospitalizations and death. In fact, as I write this £10bn sounds cheap (which equates to Numis' £50). At least 12 months away, and depends on the virus, with stopping off points along the way
Alongside existing plans MAP use for France would be good for the share price but mainly to start proving it can save lives. The biggest issue we have is what stockpile has been built up since April because whatever it is the French could exhaust the supplies quickly.
Even 100,000 treatments a month in 2021Q1 sadly won't be enough to meet demand at the rate the virus is going.
Get MAP access into French hospitals and I'll wager that they'll probably make the first contract for long term supply
Does sound far fetched but then so does 'there'll be a pandemic which will cost the UK £200bn+ and the same all over the world's. If it helps prevent deaths and hospital admissions £5bn is quite cheap.
Also thought good strong interview. I've also emailed my employers HR team to ask them if they want to make other employees aware of the at home trial just in case any of them would benefit from it
Thanks Robert. Had read comments last week good to hear it directly. 2.6% down on the day as I type but so what. This will deliver the goods. Replicate those graphs in P3 and in years to come this will be talked about in the same way people spoke about penicillin at the end of the 19th century.
Complerely agree Algy7. If we do have a successful vaccine, it will take months to produce and distribute by which time SNG should, all being well, have successfully completed P3 not only will every drop get bought up but it will be stockpiled for future mutations and be recongnised as anveffectivevrrestnent for COPD because we'll have more safety and efficacy data.
It's a Covid play right now and will play an important part but outside of Covid it has long term usage and the P3 will add more value over and above the current crisis. Just depends how patient you are or how jumpy you get on a couple of % swing
On successful phase III, and licensing to large pharmas across the globe whereby 2b at home nebulisers have been issued so that as soon as you have a viral infection you have a proven treat to aid the immune system. Because there are so many the cost of a treatment is down to, say, £250. The 2bn covers most of the adult population at risk. Ongoing cost to replace used treatments, say, £100. Taking a PE ratio of 5:1, comesvout somewhere near £15k a share. Is that close enough to going to the moon for you?
Another consideration on forecasting SP. Remdesivir 'disappointed' in WHO trials and is only drug with EUA from the FDA. When Trump announced agreement with Kodak they shot up 1500%! (he may not be in position by then but then again they're both incredibly poor candidates). Amywhere near that and I might have to top slice.
And with that I'm off to bed to dream about £30/share - or maybe I am dreaming now....
Another consideration on forecasting SP. Remdesivir 'disappointed' in WHO trials and is only drug with EUA from the FDA. When Trump announced agreement with Kodak they shot up 1500%! (he may not be in position by then but then again they're both incredibly poor candidates). Amywhere near that and I might have to top slice.
And with that I'm off to bed to dream about £30/share - or maybe I am dreaming now....
US today, 32 out of 50 states got cases rising and now back up to over 60,000 a day. Successful trial in the US and the FDA will bite our hand off for as much as we can supply. At which point, any forecasts will have to be revised upwards again. And with the Prof's positivity then hopefully we'll get that news sooner rather than later to start saving lives
Bit late up this morning so lots of messages to catch up on. I believe this is an excellent outcome. By the time they finish the trial and show efficacy in a larger sample size we will be seeing something in the region of 250,000 positive tests a day across the phase III regions. All of those medical officers and governments will want supply so the demand will be much greater than 100,000 treatments a month. I therefore expect us to prove the clinical trial, get international support to ramp up production and every government to stockpile hugely for the year ahead. This will be another 'moonshot'. Plus government's will start to see this as an avenue towards reopening economies if they have supply of a drug which reduces mortality and long term effects. And a vaccine won't touch the sides for months and might not be effective six months after taking. This placing and the plan around it will be seen to be a good thing
Baffyman - if you recall one of RM's pre-Covid presentations he gave examples of buyout valuations at phase I, II, and III. Our value increases substantially on the back of a successful phase III. He cited an example at £8bn and we didn't have such personal and economic devastation then.
Lots of steps to go to get there but an £80m investment to get to several £billion. I can wait,
As others have said, a placing doesn't have to be a bad thing. Shirt term the SP will drop but this moves us into the next phase in the UK, EU and the US. Sadly, loads of cases to trial on but should fill quickly and on the basis that the safety and efficacy data is similar (or even better) then it paves the way for substantial re-rate.
Short term pain for long term gain. If you want 10-20% returns then you'll have to wait a couple of weeks or so. If you want to multi bag from here then this shows that all the plans are in place to achieve this
....yet their Health Minister is reported as saying that their health system is very strained. Presumably he's the next Novichok tester 'volunteer'
We may have a better idea after tomorrow if the thoughts on the French ATU are correct and confirmed. That will quickly add to the dataset and if it's remotely close to 79% as in the double blind trial then the sky is the limit. And we also know in Richard's own words they are talking to governments.
Potentially we're invested in what appears to be the most effective treatment to combat this virus so you want to ensure that the results are validated and supply scaled up to meet the demand. My view is that this is the final hurdle and they've considered this since April so trying to get ahead of the game even if it feels slow but the virus is ignoring everyone's timescale.
So, SNG comes in at 25/1 having conserved energy and let the other runners (vaccines, monoclonal treatments etc) run out of breathe to take the minor places (secondary treatments if needed after SNG).
And from here 25/1 is £50/share. So that's how Numis got to their bullish valuation...didn't realise it was that easy