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Well, if that is the case, then the precedents on US pharma deals could work in our favour as shareholders. In which case I'll order my SNG001 via Amazon
Tatty, nothing been reported on local BBC news since first dosing. They may be respecting that's it's a double blinded trial
BG - I know a great little restaurant at Villefranche sur Mer just round the corner from Cap if that'll do. Amazing bouillabaisse
Mat - aside from the obvious medical benefits it'll deliver , the closer P3 results are to P2's 79% the greater the value to a suitor in my view
Shan - if it does result in a change in his condition then we have a major side effect issue. SNG001 helps you recover but it changes your gender!! Assuming that they got SNG and not the placebo
Of course, does open up another marketing angle for Consilium....or the placebo
cg_race . It’s a long time since I’ve heard that little phrase. Took me back to video watching with the girls when they were little tots. Cheers
Hu11 - assuming you're in same area as me, Levy on Look North last night pulled a face at Lincoln Uni prof asking is £2k reasonable just after putting his solemn face in announcing the numbers of deceased's. Try telling those 16 families, or the 1564 nationwide or the 4200 in the US, that their lives weren't worth the equivalent cost of a day in ICU. And the other economic factor is if the virus mutates and evades the vaccines they'll need to be reworked and readministered which will take 6 months. We need this , alongside other options to avoid perpetual winter lockdowns
Doc - excellent. Can I ask what xmas spirits have you consumed thus far this merry xmas eve?
One question that could arise when/if the home trial results are published will be - what is the eligibility criteria? SNG have been pretty strict on this but if it does improve the outcomes for the groups at risk will the regulators agree that it becomes available for anyone with a positive test above the age of x. Given the scale of infections this is a huge market.
One other observation from today. Listening to BBC news channel earlier, the cost of the furlough scheme has been £46bn. If we start talking stockpiling and/or licensing agreements, I think RM has a big bargaining chip to play with
Doc - I first looked at SNG on 18/07 and bought in at about 8.02 on Nanic Monday. We got some PR but if you remember it got overtaken by Oxford's vaccine trials which were announced on the same day. A small dataset wasn't as exciting as a therapeutic at the time.
CR - I would ordinarily agree with you but in July in Europe, we'd all gone through lockdown, met outdoors, the weather was good and infection rates were receding. Since autumn, the whole of Europe has gone backwards, and further backwards so the urgency of being able to see a therapeutic having an impact against this virus, and any variants (which could in turn reduce some concerns around vaccine efficacy going forward) will be closely followed. Let's not forget we have safety data from over 280 patients so adding another 100/200 will continue to build the picture needed.
In terms of next weeks SP, not remotely interested. Will be in a few months time and how happy I'll be will depend on P3 results - which could also mean I'll know when I can feel more relaxed about planning things like holidays, meals out
They took a leap of faith in April by using some of the £14m raised to produce in the expectation of good P2. P2 exceeded expectation and COPD readout confirmed safety profile further. The £87m was raised to increase production and do the P3.
What we don't know yet is how many treatments are already on the shelf. Similar P3 and I expect someone to buy up the first 300,000 - 500,000 treatments already available for hospital use
PS I'm trying to make up for Punit being such a miserable, merchant of doom.
Bit of balance is great but jeez
And with a focus on Long Covid too as part of the trial endpoints, this could significantly increase the demand for the drug for an even larger cohort of positive patients.
Like all of us, I'm looking forward to them announcing improved recovery rates of 75-90%, reduced side affects so reductions in long Covid and hopefully no fatalities. As a shareholder this is quite exciting again with the potential to become mind blowing
Yeah but I waited 26 years before your stint....and am currently wondering how long the present malaise is going to last.
Doc - couple of good analogies/ posts recently. As a Utd man, I've even appreciated the Liverpool one from a few days ago
Brightened up the wait. We know it's coming, just like Xmas and New Year.
....it's a good indicator of the P/E multiplier and with Covid, COPD and stockpiling we'd be looking at repeat annual revenues to improve RM's negotiating hand.
Obviously with the caveat that all is dependent on positive P3 outcomes
My strategy is hold , probably at least until the end of 2Q2021 or more likely Q3.
Why? Just this morning media has banged on about the £10bn spent on PPE because we hadn't stockpiled. Most countries media, at least in the western works, were saying the same thing. PPE was scarce and the price pumped up.
Am I happy that we appear to have good vaccine options ? Of course, world can't carry on living like it has for the last 11 months. Am I disappointed that our share price has suffered from the vaccine news? Of course, but after RM's comments last week this became a medium term hold for me.
Looking ahead, any proven treatments will be snapped up and if our P3 results are anywhere near as good and the analysis supports its use as an antiviral for future respiratory disease then the real value will be seen then. Governments will be looking for more than 100,000 treatments a month in that scenario.
Proven 80% success rate at P3 for a British development and Johnson will make the right decision to back this big time. After the debacle of this year he'll need to make a good call (although Christ knows where we'd be if Corbyn was running the show). And Biden will want to follow the science and build his war chest so that if it continues or we have a recurrence/mutant strain he can show what a good job he did in learning lessons from Covid 19. Political legacy at stake
Cheers Meelie. The micro picture explains in part why AZ get a pre-order and we don't. As impressive as P2 was, RM himself said it's a small data set, but a very good one. All coomentaries I've seen say the same but a bigger trial is needed. That's about to start, or maybe has started and we'll find out in next couple of days.
In terms of the bigger picture, the results of P3 will start to be seen towards the end of January possibly, perhaps with some interim, home trial updates and production updates. This will nicely coincide with Biden taking office at a point when, sadly, there will probably be 150,000 to 200,000 cases a day in the US. If P3 says 4 out of 5 will recover in half the time and not develop a severe condition then his scientific advisors will tell him to buy every single dose and nebuliser he can get his hand on. And if he wants to promote a 'delivered by American pharma' angle we have a bidding war between the giants to partner up.
To deliver the scale needed RM has openly added that we will partner up. As a long term anti viral you could argue that this is bigger than just one pharma and needs several licensing agreements across different continents. In this pandemic has taught us anything it's there are some things you need worldwide collaboration on regardless of colour, race, religion.
When we see first orders early next year I hope to see them say 'now we have secured our first £250m we will be increasing production with our partners to 500,000 treatments a month because the demand is so high' and then invite the big boys round the table.
PS - potential is ridiculous even if at times in the last couple of weeks it hasn't felt like it and I think there will be a TO/JV towards the end of 2021. This is the event that RM referred to in his COPD presentation in 2016 - just that no-one expected it to be a global pandemic.
Stay safe ladies and gents. Best wishes to your folks CW
Morning all!
Same compare and contrast re monoclonal antibody treatments. Same high hopes but efficacy has been called into question recently. Despite this, our government has a 1m pre-order.
I actually don't have a problem with them having pre-orders if it means they have a supply of an effective drug or treatment to combat this. Which is why when we have excellent results at P3 and on the home trial that we will get government orders
One big differemce batten SNG and AZ, and Gilead and J&J and Pfizer, is they are huge pharma with massive resources. We've been setting up and proving our value with the intention of partnering with one of these. Government pre order a million. Would they be interested in 100,000? Of course if P3 is as good as P2 and has broader anti viral properties. Reality is they will want 2m or 5m and so will every other Western government.
We'll have close to 100m infected people worldwide soon, there's plenty of room for a variety of treatments. It's so important to get strong, reliable results from P3 so that this becomes and remains a key component of respiratory disease therapies. RM will get orders for his first few 100,000's, use the income to further ramp up and then sell/license to major pharma. You'll just have to wait until 2H2021 probably as each of the building blocks slot into place.
That said, someone will still panic on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Not on Friday because it'll be FOMO and they wouldn't want to be out of this etc etc