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If this has EUA now bet Israel would have a big order in as they go into their second lockdown. It wouldn't be unreasonable for every developed economy to place orders for between £100m to £500m if the second wave is as bad/worse as the 1st one. SNG would have to partner but there would be a very juicy share of the profits (and it will be considerably north of today's price or the recent high)
I came across this on the Friday before Manic Monday and managed to start buying at 106. I'd ignored other Covid stocks in March for fear of getting spiked. By July it was obvious this wasn't a short term issue therefore 106 looked good value to me simply because the economic recovery depends on effective treatment and this is the most promising one.
If you want ridiculous valuation i posted a UK stockpiling type scenario which would run into hundreds of billions. Now that would be ridiculous. I may have had some sunstroke and alcohol but £2k a share.....am in the sun now too....
Cases rising will sadly lead to more deaths. Look at Spain and France. This could give us significant returns but would we rather have not had the virus in the first place and lead our old lives? Of course, but impatience leads to reinfection. Dexamethasone as a treatment was trialled by UK medics and has been approved worldwide. Subject to approval, will be the same for SNG.
Btw, both defences look like and still in holiday , 7-6 written all over it
Org - the one thing you might be right on is the score tonight. Although I'd rather they both lose so maybe a draw.....doubt it . 5 might be conservative
'resting at home' sorry, predictive rubbish text
42,000 have had some flu like symptoms. 193,000 in the US. 60,000 had flu like symptoms, tested and are struggling to breathe and other organ issues three months after 'resting'. Guessing the number of same people in the US is probably around 400,000. Not even including, France, Spain, Italy, Brazil, India etc etc. Don't think just testing at home and taking nothing is the answer (unless your day job is a funeral director)
Fast track home trial. Further support that SNG001 is safe as it boosts a natural protein.
Produce 30 million nebulizer and accompanying doses. Issue them to everyone over the age of 40 and then anyone under 40 who tests positive.
Produce same number of home test kits. If positive use nebuliser at home and take pressure away from NHS to deal with other ailments.
License to the rest of the world to do same. Very expensive but we pay out more now for furlough, rates relief etc never mind the cost to the NHS and then we can get closer to herd immunity.
And we wouldn't have to worry about side effects from rushed vaccine s such as leading to the pause on Oxford/AZN.
Should add as a quick calc that's a spend of around £400b. We've spent that already and thinking of another £100b for testing. SP would be a bit tasty :)
Manifesto - excellent point in ARDS. So, Covid, COPD, ARDS, Asthma, various viruses. if you look at the UK this week. 3000 positive Vivid tests a day and increasing (of those showing symptoms). If a third of these are prescribed SNG that's 1,000 a day. Assumed cost elsewhere was £100 a dose every day for 14 days.
1,000 x £100 x 14 x 30 = £42m a month, and sadly these numbers are likely to increase as govt try to keep the economy open. The cost to the UK alone will quite possibly go beyond £100m a month. For the US, multiply by a factor of 5, for the rest of Europe a similar multiple. Can see this, in emergency use approval, getting orders well in excess of £2bn, to treat current victims of the virus and govts building up stockpiles. After which efficacy should be proven for broader use post Covid.
Massive demand for a treatment that significantly reduces mortality rates and alleviates longer term damage to those that recover. Richard and co will want this to market asap for all the right humanitarian reasons and therefore seek the most effective partnerships to deliver. Short and medium term need suggests likely to be a pharma imv.
Depends how the market then revalues SNG but even allowing for discounting for partnership deals it's a good chance of being a game changing life changer
Just watched Trump back. No second lockdown and he thinks they're doing very well. 4 weeks time and sadly they'll be back up to 60000+ a day. Even allowing that many won't be too severe, reasonable assumption could be that 20% could benefit from SNG001. So, bit of rounding , but say 10,000 a day, 14 day treatment. And that's just one country of 350m people. Agree he'll be under huge pressure. Would prefer to see MHRA/EU approval first though as FDA bit discredtited in my view following plasma and hydroxy thingybobs.
Patience is the key. We won't be the only treatment but we will be one of the key ones and needed for quite a long time by which time it'll also then have huge support for COPD treatment. As one avenue closes off, hopefully for our way of lives, the original aim will takeover. Massive potential but I suspect a lot of us may well have sold out by then
May I apologise for predictive text errors (bloody tablet).day
' US reporting' and 'good news'.
I'll excuse the big pharma if they make a predictive text error and offer £15b instead of £1.5b. Be great bargaining tool with other suitors too but that's for another day
Will make up for a few percent drop in last two days! Patent registration to protect partners and investors (including II's) and tonight IS reporting shortage of remdesivir to treat patients and projecting another 200,000 deaths by Jan 2021. Just a matter of time to see what his 'God bee's is going to be
Hanc0ck. 60,000 survivors with side effects/ill health for 4 months after diagnosis. Hospitalization i increasing in Spain and France.
Focus also on economic recovery so this should/must be part of the weaponry
East Yorkshire/North Lincs local news covering nurses who contracted Covid, 11 days on a ventilator and just back to work after 4 months recovery. There will be lots of people in the same position all over the UK, USA, Europe, Latin America, Asia. When you start totting these all up it does start to sound like £billions.....and they've just added some good quality data to support the next stage, emergency approval
Agreed. My big takeaway was it was well tolerated in the older population with a significant co-morbidity. Of the 900,000 deaths worldwide this cohort makes up the vast percentage but as Boris said at the beginning 'many will be taken before their time'. This could have saved hundreds of thousands of lived already so it's future value across the globe is huge. Add to that, the expense of treating the survivors through ventilation, the side effects then this is another significant step along the pathway to some big money deal.
Now we have this update I expect the next news to follow quicker than between 20th July and today
Plus Tedros saying yesterday about being prepared for future pandemics so safety and efficacy on treating viruses will lead to governments around the world stockpiling SNG001. WHO approval imminent following this update imo
Focus on the safety analysis supporting the Covid findings on the same day that Fauci has planned briefing in Washington. News release almost looks coordinated alongside the 'worldwide ' discussions. All good news and next steps hopefully very quickly
If I remember correctly it was our medical experts that announced dexamethasone to the world as an effective treatment so I fully expect that Vallance and Witty are in regular contact with RM, SH and TW to say 'have we got enough to formally go public. Does your other data support the 79% findings? Have we got production facilities prepared? Who will you be partnering with? We want this but we don't want to have to them go back and say it isn't effective like the US keep having to do'.
Hate to repeat the adage but these things take time. RM stated a small number of weeks, it still is but when it lands with all of the above in place it'll be worth the wait as shareholders and for the economy. And a bit of British pride!
That's my hope anyway
Oxford vaccine professor reports of increasing risk of animal to human disease infections citing Ebola, Sars, West Nile Virus (what?) and Covid . And she's working on the vaccine which she has adapted from her Ebola work (which was never approved). So, potentially we have more coronaviruses to come.
Washington Post article is a rehash of another report. What is interesting to me is that it points out that earlier work on interferon wasn't effective but presumably these were administered by IV rather than directly into the lungs.
More data to support the 20th July findings and we could be looking at the direct treatment of choice for respiratory viruses. Starting with this son of a b....
Fully agree graking. There needs to be a c0cktail of treatments but the first one to be prescribed should be SNG. Strong results, to be further ratified, simpler to administer, reduce stress on health services. For the unluckier ones, or those that leave it later to get tested and help, then that's when plasma, rendezvous or dexamethasone becomes the preferred treatment. Looking across the world now this combination will save thousands and thousands of lives. And will be worth a fortune when the news drops
If they're getting excited about a 35% improvement, imagine how excited they'll be with a 79% improvement from a double blind trial. They did indicate other treatment options coming on stream and you can't believe that this isn't on their radar , accepting that the trial numbers weren't huge but the data quality is superior to the plasma trials