The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
Unfortunately until he actually spits it out he isn't referring to SNG. He's talking about remdesivir and dexamethasone which we all know are later stage treatments and don't compare to SNG's 79% recovery rate. We need him to give approval get it formally mentioned in the HoC
Following on from one of pmjh or WedME's very informative posts a thought for consideration.
Once we have approval, based on the assumption that the data set is accepted, validated and then expanded along with the home trial, is there a case for the distributor and SNG to agree that individual's could purchase this to have available at home?
We need to address hospital and care home needs first but Tedros is expecting the long haul, reports of second infections, vaccine trials being halted. When supply scaled up, which would be as exponential as the transmission rate, then I'd pay £1,500 to have it available for my loved ones. Although with scale I wouldn't expect it to be that much.
And taking the Numis note, you can foresee how they get to a bullish £50/share.
Therefore ignore mild daily fluctuations, have patience and stay safe
Brilliant summary WedMe. Glen's 2nd point stole my thunder in terms of the caution in progressing from phase II to emergency use. However as WedMe articulates much better than the rest of us, we will need more than one treatment because it's a global problem and the vaccine route will take ages to be effective, if ever.
By that time though SNG will have become established as a primary treatment for respiratory illnesses of all descriptions and future variants.
The lottery analogy feels apprpriate. On 20th July, a lot of you got 4 numbers and shared your selections with the rest of us. When we get the next bit of big news, either EUA or government contracts, it'll be 5 numbers, then further orders adds the bonus ball until finally all 6 come in in the form of a multi billion pound buyout as a pharma takes it on for Covid, COPD, ARDS, etc. In the meantime, we all keep playing the same 6 numbers
Good summary. Report from Rome covered on BBC today into Long Covid issues reflects this and imv adds weight to SNG being administered as early as possible to reduce incidence. Wasn't long ago someone stood up in the Commons and referred to 60,000 still suffering with after effects. That itself will be a drain on the NHS and he welfare state so would be worth the expense. Especially as we don't know who is going to suffer long term until after they've had it, mild or severe
Sparkle - I'm in Skiathos enjoying a break before the world stops and decided a good meal out was time better spent
If we can replace vaccine theories with SNG treatment for the whole world and the share price rockets to several thousand a share I've decided no football club is worth my money, or yours either probably
And when/if it takes off and the share price rockets I'll buy Utd a couple of decent defenders.....
Oxford - my take is that RM and co have tried to preempt the Catch 22 question by taking the steps they've taken already to demonstrate that it can be scaled up. This has been in progress so big pharma know what they're getting into. And the scale required has increased dramatically since April across the globe especially the America's and Asia and we're heading into winter across the worst affected countries. I doubt that 500,000 treatments a month would be enough the way this virus transmits and the general lockdown fatigue that hits everywhere at different stages and reignites it
...and should gave added why during the Sachs interview Richard referred to 100,000 treatments a month.
Problem with that is that worldwide demand will likely be much higher so needs partners and assurances for governments to commit. Don't care if France is the first so long as it does what it says on the tin, saves lives, relieves long term illness, allows us to return to normal and makes all readers a comfortable return
...and why Richard said in the post 20th July interviews we took the risk to step up production and manufacturing capabilities in April in anticipation of a good outcome. This was reinforced with Stephen's interview in May when he mentioned manufacturers worldwide.
Government and medical officers/advisors must be all over this waiting for the nod to release it. Now we have Clinigen, and Numis appointed as brokers, I expect to hear that we're being used in hospital settings and that data will then lead to home use. By January anyone testing positive will/should ve given the option, targeted by:
Age
Ethnicity
Co-morbidities
....which could mean if Trump doesn't respond or has a relapse, they have supplies on hand to administer. The guy is a fruitcake but if his medkcal team use SNG to pull him through it would be incredible. He'd compare the cost of Remdesivir and Regeneron to SNG and make multi billion pound order straightaway
No adverse reactions but the trial results were on a much less at risk population, average age 45. Not with same profile as Trump.
Given that he's had a ****tail of experimental drugs and the wider coverage that interferon gave had you'd hope that they have requested a treatment for him, or his missus. FDA must know about it and be happy to let him have it on a Right to Try vasis
Her comment is on similar lines to an alternative vaccine option. Advantage being that it provides a naturally occurring protein that has been seen to be effective, and will be more so in the coming weeks with the French ATU. Licence deals will spring up all over the place and if Boris has stockpiled 4 months worth of PPE, imagine how much of this he'll stockpile (when he finally gets his finger out).
Woodie - wouldn't mind a cash raise when the business is already worth multiples of today's SP but we will have licensed or sold off part to a large pharma and they'll take care of the funding
CEO on CNN being interviewed about their trial. 275 patients but average age is 45 and none were sick enough to be hospitalised. They're working with Roche and seeking FDA approval. Setting up similar arrangements to SNG and Clinigen by the sounds of it. However, when you look at the patient profile, and probably production processes, feels like we're ahead in terms of patient risk and need. Would hope now that Clinigen agreement is in place this is being shouted from the rooftops. Next few weeks should give us the answer
Suspension of shares due to new contracts from UK government and the European Commission in excess of £2b preferred due to likely excessive spike that would accompany them. Buy out can come after deals with US, Brazil and India.
Carlsberg don't do Synairgen RNS' but if they did.....
Was driving back from a weekend in Center Parcs listening to the scientific briefing. Good practices in place but so so much quieter than any previous visit there. As they said possibly 50,000 cases a day my immediate reaction was that will be a massive order for SNG001 so part of the approval will be having all the manufacturing and distribution processes in place. With the efficacy and safety data this it is surely a matter of time before we get the news that Richard alluded to in his Proactive interview. And at a decent percentage of 50,000 a day just in the UK then I fully expect licensing deals with a major pharma to be part of that news
Should be! My hypothesis is that they have been busy setting up the infrastructure to ensure that when they announce they will be in a position to deliver for thousands and thousands of patients and be able to respond to global requests. Alongside that, the readout for COPD was needed so on that basis I expect news any day to take us up to the next level. Europe needs this treatment now
Post on SAR today refers to combination treatments and references a drug costing around $12750 a month from AZN which has significant side effects.
Compare this to SNG at around £1500 for a 14day course with a very good data set. The combination treatmenr should be SNG. Less side effects and better chance of recovery. More cases greater the efficacy evidence. If you get worse, dexamethasone. Combined cost a little over a tenth of the AZN trial therefore highly cost effective even if the ultimate ticket cost to governments runs into billions across the world.
Haven't seen it but is there any further monitoring of the double blind trial to see how each cohort has continued to progress with regard to 'long covid' complications. That would add another huge plus into the data set and efficacy debate (if continuing along same path as 20th July readout)
Agreed Johnsam and as noted SNG puts plans in place upscale up back in April.
As Manifesto indicated, this has been planned with some foresight. If we have 3m doses, that could treat around 215,000 people, half of the number of recorded positive tests so far in the UK. This itself would be worth around £300m to the company and is a big bargaining chip with the cluster of pharmas to take it global.
Most office based businesses aren't expecting their staff back anytime soon (my personal view is Aprl/May at the earliest after the winter season) so I think we have quite a few months before we need to worry about how much a takeover may be for
Imperial College also reporting today trials on inhaled vaccine to go direct to target area. Along with this news can only be a matter of time before we have an EUA for SNG. That will also out to bed the last two hours of speculation - but of course lead to the next bout of speculation from a higher base.
If we're going to have an inhaled vaccine we may as well go for the mass production of SNG001 which we know is effective. An sure some economies of scale could be agreed upon.....
If this has EUA now bet Israel would have a big order in as they go into their second lockdown. It wouldn't be unreasonable for every developed economy to place orders for between £100m to £500m if the second wave is as bad/worse as the 1st one. SNG would have to partner but there would be a very juicy share of the profits (and it will be considerably north of today's price or the recent high)