Member Info for Foresight22

..strangely good timing for Sunday Times article which is very well informed - full of oily lingo & language!

...once HE has laid all drilling anchors for Warrick Deep, hopefully they can then concentrate on FOIL (first hydrocarbons), so hopefully ‘see’ something this week. Then twenty days of production testing; then on with topping up the tanks to FOIL (oil offloading). Looking forward too some good news rather than all this hopefull-ness...

...back to 4p ASK. Good day for UOG

Boat over wells, 60.2025, -3.8673. Assume (?) start of prep for First Hydrocarbons?

..we heard yesterday that the EPS infrastructure is robust for 10 years, x2 plus the original 2 well Lancaster EPS. The 10 year, 100 million BO reserves (proven) would therefore be Phase 1 FFD (effectively). Producing longer at a lower flow rate (Phase1) may be more robust that spending billions again on new FFD Phase 2 facilities. It seems to me, until Warrick has been fully appraised, Phase 2 FFD cannot be assessed realistically. Also, now with partners involved, they have a voice too which HE cannot give HUR press releases without full partner approval, in particular if Spirit will be the operator and will be tasked with driving Phase 2 FFD ahead.

I’m very happy HUR should have 100+ million BO proven reserves once OGA approve Phase 1 FFD..

..probably valves on wellheads or manifold, let’s see where dive support vessels shows. Coordinates anyone? - buoy was bang-on.

...from the Q&A this morning, still need dive-support vessel to achieve First Hydrocarbons [technical FOIL]. Should see that event on MarineTraffic. Very informative day by HE Team, well done!

...good buy’s today, need ASK to get back to 4, then on with Jamaica!

Wulbert

..have to sell it first, commercial oil => petro-monies.

Based on latest HE presentation, FOIL definition based on ‘stable flow from both wells’ akin to more commercial/post well clean-up/commissioning definition rather than normal technical definition. HE definition is some two weeks after initial production testing, clean-up and transient flow phases of the two producers—delivering petro-monies from oil to AM storage tanks (?). Just have two wells to ‘tie-in’ (66 days on Catcher for 12 wells) on Lancaster so HE defined project commencement of First Hydrocarbons [FH] = FOIL (Technical) must be in days not weeks if weather holds!

adoubleuk makes very good and strong points of view, 'Warwick Deep' below 2258m TVDSS has the main elements of 'exploration', but, likewise when proven through new drilling, securing evidence of a deeper OWC in Warwick, but also in Lincoln whose contiguous accumulation is still based on an ODT. The likelihood of finding deeper oil in Warwick must be very very high as only an ODT has been appraised in Lincoln todate. The exploration element of 'Warwick Deep' must therefore have a very good likelihood based on 'Geological Risking (Pg)'. These opportunities are very rare in Mature Basins where other exploration wells have much more risk when considering associated Pg.

The appraisal of Warrick above the ODT of 2258m TVDSS (as secured in Lincoln) will add significant Contingent Resources too. Interesting times!

Both Catcher and Kraken were new build FPSOs, the latter being viscous oil field development. Catcher crude is more viscous than Lancaster too. We shall see... hopefully soon!

'proven' FPSO is key, FOIL very soon with only one well flowing at these low rates planned. Keep up surveillance...

Lancaster Field ops will not be different from any other development, first FOIL; then ramp-up stage (initial production testing with one well flowing - other closed-in [interference testing]); then long term EWT with both wells flowing. Initial ramp-up reservoir/well performance being validated (/or not) during EWT ongoing reservoir/well performance; then water cut development securing most likely future reserves (ie some months post FOIL).

Key is FOIL date as then petro-monies will start flowing! Don't think HE think this is simply an experiment, backers will want returns from their investments; HUR sp growth built on increasing proven reserves with time post FOIL...

Good weather around AM in forecast (next 10 days), HE need to deliver FOIL now, certainly would help HUR SP!, plus on negative PR on their delivery 'record'. WoS is not easy due to bad weather, which is now behind them...

Anyone watching for flaring?

Motley Fool does not seem to understand RISK, where Risk Assessment is based on Consequences AND LIKELYHOODs. The Fool's 'Worst Case Scenario' has the least chance of occurrence - in fact very, very rare (much safer than consequences of crossing the road! "likelihood"). Then on top of the Risk Assessment, all E&P companies carry out Risk Management based on the outcomes of the Risk Assessment, managing the factors behind Likelihood & Consequences.

AM has survived 'Winds-of-March', onwards now to FOIL! ..generating petro-monies to HUR bank account.

Think it will be hard to suppress public information around FOIL. Sure that if weather calm end next week, HE will be keen to get the tanker system tested ASAP - giving necessary cash flow plus reduce costs of unnecessary support vessels; also so team can concentrate too on the upcoming appraisal drilling. 3000-9000 BOPD does not sound like a difficult commissioning start up process in relatively calm seas.

...very strange time to write such an article viewpoint - post successful anchoring and having just entered the initial clean-up and production phase. Once this weekend's winds blow-over -- on with the main show! ...peak value & investment risks now behind us, monies flowing to bank shortly.. HE has very little longterm debt - some 5 MMBO worth.

Think we will see start of flaring next week once the ‘Winds of March’ reduce post this weekend. Sure they will be testing both wells over this 20 day ramp-up period, with pressure build-ups to scope likely Reserves. ...then on with EWT.

"Once the vessel is hooked up to the buoy at Lancaster, the start-up process is expected to take 20-22 days. That’s about gradually bringing the two production wells on stream individually, checking for flow assurance, and how the Lancaster reservoir’s pressures behaves."

FOIL, then ramping wells up, all over next 20-22 days..