Member Info for Foresight22

...is anyone following next well in Guyana - any insight into likely Tullow spud dates?

...calculate on crystal ball with risk factors between 5 - 95% and someone(?) might take you seriously.. What's your assumption on WD OWC, sounds like HE might be finding that out soon, they love their rocks!

...tooooo much rum! Way hey up she rises, way hey

Logging crew for Transocean Leader (WD)? Plus more specialist fishing kit for AM sport?

Luckily I wear pants! Sorry adoubleuk. Too long at sea...

...minus three to four weeks mucking around on ‘data collection’. FOIL was supposed to be fully operational with first tanker offloaded. Need First Flaring very soon... collecting rocks is fun but does not pay the bills nor raise SP anymore.

..more specialist fishing tackle? Still couple weeks to go before 2H 2019 starts.

AM should flare the first couple of hours flow when initial hydrocarbons reach surface - cleaning-up the kill fluids in well. After that - for next 20 days may not see too much flaring at all... seems too quiet at moment, obviously must have big snagging list! ..or they just love fishing.

...either fishing again or waiting for first light. Maybe they forgot to set their alarm this morning?

Looks like GCIII finished on gauges and HE should now have well pressures to AM, why otherwise do survey on lines?.. All done - trades today would support that view too. Information certainly seems leaky.. Those fishing boats must have had long telescopes.. all set for First Hydrocarbons, let’s hope they do not wait for the weekend.. HE should start flaring with GCIII still near location before release (?). Way-Hey and up She rises!

Very good results - maybe last couple months Board refocusing on their current stores. SP should start to increase again over next few months. Re-investing always good sign!

RE. FTHP, all good chat - but we are trying to flow oil not gas; 100 psi surface pressure drop sounds about right too..

Lots of fishing boats in GLA, fish must now something(?). Scouting?

400-550 psi FTHP, any better guesses..

..would make sense if keep GCIII with ROV on seabed when flow back first well. Seabed surface equipment will only have been pressure tested with water, not hydrocarbons... expensive boat -- so should not stay toooo long, gone tomorrow? way-hay and up she rises.

...great posts today, all makes sense now plus should also mean AM is now dusted down! Still think Grampian Sovereign playing role - possibly picking up signals from subsurface gauges.. once subsea gauges installed - no more fishing!!! Very exciting week plus GCIII leaving Lancaster Area later this week will be very positive sign.

OGA reports always confusing - 'spin & wind' come to mind - but nice colours & figures.

WoS Northern Gas Hub Action Plan hangs by thread on needing gas discovery on Lyon Prospect - a high (highly) risk prospective seismic anomaly, in ultra or extreme deep water where development costs are prohibitive and normal reserves reduced due to additional flow assurance issues.

S&W on a number of other concerns over this report:
(1) possible UK CCUS sanctioned post 2023, would mean that 1 CCUS (sink - economic rent negative) project has equivalent expenditure to around 3 major new offshore wind (source - economic rent positive) projects. UK Government already sanctioning new Offshore Wind projects (press release Feb 2019) to reach 154 GW by 2030, increased from 22GW 2018. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/offshore-wind-energy-revolution-to-provide-a-third-of-all-uk-electricity-by-2030

(2) OGA overseen 3.9 Billion BOE 'reserve' additions since 2015 (?): OGA was set up late 2015 to add 3-4 Billion BOE over 20 years [28/1/16] - now claiming 3.9 Billion BOE achieved already in first 5 years! But 8/11/18 OGA reserves & resources report based on 2017 - had 2P decreasing by 0.3 Billion BOE from 2016? In this April 2019 report now claiming 0.9 Billion BOE from 'future exploration' - that's Prospective Resource!, plus 0.9 billion from 'other factors' [unspecified!]?.

Seems only 1.45 billion BOE actually claimed is added by the four original categories back in late 2015 (where some 300-475 new exploration wells were predicted! over 20 years!), plus 0.61 billion BOE from New Project Sanction - majority discovered ie Contingent Resource from before OGA conceived. Since 2015, some 1.7 Billion BOE actually produced (from around 6.3 billion BOE being developed or on-production in late 2015), therefore the 1.45 Billion BOE actually claimed added (which should show up in next OGA Reserves Report Nov 2019?) equates to some 85% - which could sounds reasonable, but, not the 3.9 Billion BOE -- being highly Prospective + Speculative Resources.

Time will tell, but, not easy analysis - clearly I have toooo much free time in my life waiting for AM to be dusted down.

ps shame UK Shale Gas did not bail OGA out - hopefully they will now look to HE to do that in their next 5 year period, their contribution paid for by industry funds yet they are independent(?)

"Can no-one can explain why their share price predictions have so far been so wrong instead of insulting me?"

Yes, as with other shares (eg UOG today - some 20 BCF Resources added with no real SP movement) - no value given to Resources, only Reserves, maybe even only Proven Reserves. This probably caused by disaster of AIM Oil & Gas Shares over last 4-5 years! With HUR SP - should move up this more petro-monies in bank and with 100 MMBO reserves sanctioned by HE Board. Time will tell... When HE achieves forward selling Lancaster EWT Production SP will have to go up as have more money in bank than some SP predictions on this BB!

1. EPS inplace, AM dusting itself down, all paid for.
2. Two producers, well tested at great commercial rates, waiting to flow Petro-monies
3. 3-6 months of earning significant Petro-monies while proving up commerciality of FFD
4. Carry on three E&A wells, with rig drilling!, to add significant new contingent resources
Etc
Etc

Large Uncertainty - but monies about to flow into HUR => Long Term Hold!

Well done United, good result. Proven reserves on production next year, Petro-monies flowing into bank. More Contingent & Prospective Resources to tie-back hopefully post FGAS, focus on Jamaica now!. Considering the investment Cuadrilla and Igas spending on UK Shale in Bowland these production flow rates for United have been very smart and impressive! - give United credit..