Member Info for Forensic505

Just read the Zeus updated research report out this morning on ALK.

100% positive. Financing well advanced. Once financing announced this will break 600p.

Great credit to Zeus. Previously they had a 1.9p target. That proved very accurate.

We are now well on the way to their revised and updated 4.8p target.

Wrong. The new broker rates this BUY with a share price target of 130p.

@Tungstenman - much obliged. Thank you.

Historic yield looks too high to me now at 6%. Interest rates don’t seem likely to be coming down as quickly as previously thought in the USA and the UK. I think share price of MNG and PHNX in particular are due a cold bath correction. The sheep have wandered out of the pen…

At a current market capitalisation of just £40m a “base case” EBITDA of $66m (£50m) this company is clearly highly undervalued.

Yes there is much execution still to do but the management seem to be partnering with top tier business partners (eg Glencore - which says it all).

Terms of the financing will be important, of course, but Paul clearly states in today’s RNS that the financing will be completed imminently.

A wonderful investment opportunity.

@Tungstenman

I’m trying to find the SP Angel 13p note on Research Tree. Do you recall when it was published roughly please? Thanks in advance.

The debt provider is keeping this dog on a very tight leash.

Why tomorrow?

Zurich rule 2.8 day not until 16/2.

Selling down will crystallise a big loss for FW. Their investment in price is 500p.

They only raised their last fund of $1.2 Billion 15 months ago…

They clearly have a long term strategy here. Often the first M&A battle is not the decisive one.

1. The Board members have almost no skin this game. They are protecting their inflated salaries and NED fees.

2. The Board are there with the paramount duty to maximise shareholder value. Period.

3. The Board RNS refers to “constructive engagement” with FW. I don’t see that. Nothing suggests that they have assisted FW in building a bridge from the current share price to a fair takeover price. They gave no access to due diligence.

4. FW’s position is now worth cared consideration. 22% is an odd shareholding. They need to:

(a) build to 25% to block a competing (board approved) bid.

(b) Ideally, they should buy up to 29.9% over these next 6 months to: (average down their final investment costs, which is currently over 500p) and to have a considerably stronger negotiating hand come July 2026.

The bid disclosed that this company is heavily undervalued (which is why the board rejected the bid as opportunistic).

ATG is traded at a 50% discount to its listed peers.

The board need to do a very much better job of presenting the company to the investment community. Starting now.

Key points of the week for me:

After RNS 1 this week Zeus increased target price to 4.8p

Next day: RNS 2: Zeus said “further under pinned 4.8p”

Their previous price target of 1.8p had been comfortably surpassed (how often do you see that?…very seldom).

Ladies and gents we are in a fantastic position. As others here have postulated: “Share of the Year” contender. Even though we aren’t even in February yet, that a strong shout out.

Now….

G&T time x

Good analysis. Thank you @JMUK26

* little patience

We’ve had a lot of good info.

Now a little required.

Time for a skiing trip. No phones !

Wishing all a great weekend.

This does indeed look a Placing incoming.

Board needs to communicate now.

I have always liked and respected the Zeus guys but they got a tarnished reputation six or seven years ago for over pumping the price of their IPO’s. Since then they have, very correctly, addressed there target share pricing and if anything they have somewhat over corrected by being a little too conservative in certain situations. I think the consensus here is that is the case with SML. However, there is so much abundant upside on offer here. I am very comfortable with the position Zeus are taking: under promise and overdeliver. Which is precisely what the terrific new management team here are producing. Bravo to the company and their advisors.

My guess (for what it’s worth) of how this plays out now (assuming ATG Board and FW behave rationally and professionally):

1. Monday 2 Feb: ATG announce that Takeover Panel has granted 2 week extension for diligence and negotiation. Standard procedure.

2. Monday 16 Feb: recommended deal announced in the price range of 475-525p

Buckle up ! 🚀