Member Info for Forensic505

When your market cap is £20m, don’t just put details of a “£1-9m (seven figure) settlement figure” in your monthly newsletter….

That 7 figure settlement is a highly material result and must be published to the stock market first as obviously (positive thankfully) price sensitive information.

For all investors know, that single settlement represents 50% of the market value of the entire company.

The Nomad is obviously fast asleep at the wheel as well.

Yup. My main effort in this space: SML and ALK.

Way to go @Supra3 🤣👏👏👏

It’s 9% up this morning so I’m not complaining. I might break tradition and even by a round at 5pm Friday drinkies tonight 😉🍷

@ontarget - I doff my cap to your trusts knowledge. Thank you.

All further comments please to Mr Thompson. I was the good-hearted message boy on this one !

@ontarget - I would recommend all read the full article. As with any portfolio, there are all sorts of valuation dynamics in play and quite often the time honoured 80/20 rule applies: 80% of the value comes from 20% of the resource investment.

They are in TUN

SML’s next door neighbour

Very interesting Investors Chronicle article out this morning. Top of their bargain shares is a company called Baker Steel Resources Trust (BSRT).

BSRT is a closed end investment company with shareholdings in a portfolio of operating companies in the gold silver and, you guessed it, tungsten sector.

BSRT seems to have completely flown under the radar because when you value its portfolio on a share by share basis, BSRT’s share price is 50% below the sum of the parts value of all those individual holdings.

Therefore we could have a pretty damn obvious 50% upside in BSRT. I suspect that one will need to move quickly before this evaluation gap is recognised and filled by the market…

I have a very strong peg on my nose whenever I read the Investors Chronicle, but on this relatively rare occasion, I think Simon Thompson Has spotted a genuine and material valuation anomaly.

If you have been late to the minerals mining gold silver tin and tungsten party, BSRT could present a very smart backdoor way into a sensible position.

DYOR But I have taken a fairly significant position this morning.

BSRT is top of Investors Chronicle list of “Bargain Shares” released this morning.

50% discount to NAV is clearly an anomaly.

With the very greatest respect to our most learned colleagues at TikTok, my focus is:

1) Zeus: 4.8p fully justified now. 4 more drill results and MRE to come shortly that will “most likely lead to a very significant further re-rating”.

2) SP Angel (specialist sector broker or joint broker to almost all of the respectable quoted mining sector) value SML’s Cornish assets at 13p alone.

3) The SP Angel Net Present Value analysis used to derive that 13p valuation was based on an average Tungsten price over the past 12 months. That is extremely conservative. The price of Tungsten has increased exponentially over the past quarter.

Looks like we’re on the charge again….3.20 bid

Looks a little desperate announcing a non-binding LoI….

The highly conservative Zeus note today this yet further underpins their immediate valuation of SML at 4.8p per share. That is an immediate 40% upside. After the important MRE (which is due very soon now), we will see the bridge built from Zeus’ 4.8p to SP Angel’s 13p (which is actually only just based on the Cornwall assets). That is a 4x from where the share price is today.

Agree with 3-10 bagger medium to longer term.

I have stuck close to the excellent analyst at Zeus so far on SML. He called 1.9p. We traded to slightly above that. He then raised his target to 4.8p after the two RNSs last week. Therefore: I see a short term 50% upside followed by 5 drilling reports and the MRE that could take us to the 3-5x level referred to below.

@MoodyBlue14-10-2 🤣🤣

Massive Weller respect to @toileronthesea…be careful all. He’s a Strangler 😉

The walls come tumbling down…look out 4p, you’re next.

I agree. Glencore deal gilt edged ALK paper.

This is potentially just stage one…

Zurich are acting with undue haste…

What we need now is a competing bid to emerge from a huge American or Japanese financial services gorilla. Then £15 will be in sight.

I agree with @JDF7 - the synergies from the combination will be enormous and give Zurich unprecedented Lloyds access.

They need to pay a fair price for that.

I would like to hope that Beazley' advisors and board are working hard to attract and engage with other bidders. The combination benefits for Zurich are far from unique to Zurich. So that would introduce some much needed competitive tension to this process, which would certainly help to deliver fair value to Beazley stockholders.

@Tungstenman - I have read the SP Angel report for 29 Oct. I can't see that they themselves explicitly state the "13p" valuation that you refer to. Please understand that I am not questioning the validity of your statement whatsoever, I am simply trying to reference and understand it. Is the 13p your own calculation based on the various cashflows and NPV scenarios that SP Angel set out in the note ? Many thanks.