Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Apologies RollingInit, my description of ‘hierarchy’ was supposed to be tongue in cheek slightly. I wasn’t implying there is a hierarchy, more what you were alluding to.
But this is exactly my point. A British politician (in my opinion) who has ties with Oman would have no influence on an agreed sale of a small oil company in America. Who exactly is he tapping on the shoulder? There are about 7 different variables going into this, from COPL to Atomic, the financiers, the lawyers, the auditors.. any one of these cards could tumble the house. So my point was, who is he supposedly influencing and where is the evidence.
Muel
Well the point is there is no point, just like the theorising here. Firstly why would these payments matter at all? Secondly how do you know these payments exist? I’m more than happy to discuss it if evidence is provided but implying accusations against a British politician (that is also a lord) does not just go unnoticed in my book.
For the record Shouston I didn’t get out of the bed the wrong way and I don’t dislike you, let’s keep the personal jabs to a minimum please.
Muel
Just for balance hopingforbags.
We only own 5% of OPL 226 rising to 15% (I believe) if certain payments are met. Just incase someone is new to the board, I wouldn’t want them to be mislead.
Muel
Tbf every time I want to buy an oil field in America I call my English lord mate to sort it out..
I’m all for evidence backed theorising but it’s getting a bit silly now. Even if you are correct, who cares?
Far be it for me to be negative, but I take misinterpretation of our British hierarchy annoying. Maybe I haven’t researched enough on the guy but just a simple google says he was a politician. Maybe we should give Tony Blair a call too, see what he can sort in the Middle East.
Let’s keep it real guys.
Muel
I’m not sure they would announce completion of the finance prior the the deal being finalised. Mainly because this is a key mile stone which may invariably effect the share price due to what you have pointed out.
I would presume they would have to be in tandem as not to effect the SP for the shares we are issuing the Atomic owner. I’m sure there will be legality around such matters but just my opinion.
Muel
What an earth is wrong with people?
This is exactly why I didn’t comment on the 5% rise the other day while everyone was buzzing. This is another day in the life, people need to take their heads for a wobble.
The fundamentals remain the same. The deal is on until it’s off. Just be patient.
Maybe one of Tilburns summary posts will cheer us up.
FYI CawCaw was perfectly justified in what he said, no offence to him but I doubt his comments on this board would have any bearing on SP. There’s only one person I know who could influence a SP and that’s PaddyGall.
Muel
Petro, I have done my research hence the comment.
I find it odd you spout MADT on both COPL and here, but not COPL on here when there is equally as much to be gained there.
Nothing is certain in this game. Just because MADT have proven oil where as COPL is going through an acquisition it doesn’t make either one a more certain proposition.
For the record I am fond of you Petro but this endless MADT charge makes me question you integrity on these boards somewhat.
Have a pleasant day.
Muel
And it’s just started snowing, time to get really giddy =D
I have a general question on valuations, your comment Shaa about 4p was touted around for Nigeria being a gusher..
So if 5 wells are drilled does that mean 5 x 4p if the fundamentals of the wells are all the same? If you are increasing the BOPD via additional wells that means addition profit right? So under normal circumstances how would that be valued?
Similarly, if they drilled 10, 20 or even 30 which I believe you mentioned? Just generally curious. Because surely if it was 30 wells and the valuation theory above is applied than that would be an absurd share price.
Thanks,
Muel
“Why all the sells?”
Multiple reasons Palmer, probably for the same reasons you sold. Hard times in the second lockdown / Jan, some people are happy with little profit? I don’t have the answers for you unfortunately.
It just seems with every step forward we take a bunch of conspiracy theorists have to come out the woodwork.
Glad you’re still in, best of luck to us all.
Muel
Fantastic post rumbled, I’m not quite sure where some of these negative vibes are coming from tbh. It seems to me like swing traders getting impatient with the lack of news.
If you are a long term investor here, even one that’s been battered and bruised in the past I would fail to see how you couldn’t be optimistic at last. Bold statement I know.
CawCaw, personally I take it as a personal rule not to listen to anyone who quotes Zak Mir on BB’s. You keep giving us the authentic CawCaw, ignore the wind up merchants.
Muel
Hi Shaa,
Agreed, and to me that’s what would make it even harder to hijack.
I am fully aware I don’t normally post this much, I just want to assure people that even if you have no knowledge of the sector you can break this down into some pretty simple principles.
COPL now makes up around 50% of my portfolio and I have no ambition to sell out, I will be in here until I can buy a house 10p+. (Queue the derampy brigade “OmG sOmEoNe sAiD 10p”)
It’s perfectly reasonable to have a plan and ambition, it’s also perfectly reasonable to sell your shares at 0.26 if you want to.
Enjoy the rest of your weekend all.
Muel
I don’t want to bang on about this but I’ve been thinking about this most of yesterday. For the record I have little to no knowledge of the oil and gas sector but what I do know is people.
What sort of deal do you think would have to be put on the table to stop the COPL deal? Let’s imagine hypothetically the $3m in shares are dishes out at 0.25; now imagine the share price when the deal is signed off. Add in potential Nigeria, margins etc and again, if I was the Atomic owner I would be very happy. At that point it wouldn’t be a gamble for him as he is providing the keys to ensure he’s own prosperity for the future.
The asset is $143m (ish) right? How much money has he ploughed in to develop it? COPL SP at 2.5p gets out boy $30m, 5p = $60m.. plus the deposit they received. I doubt our boy at Atomic will be loosing any sleep over this deal.
So again, what would it take to derail the deal? $50m cash (I think not). I would take this deal any day, to the point where any other offer would probably be unattainable for a 3rd party to hijack.
Maybe they just like COPL and their potential. The problem is we don’t know, so to sell on the fact something is too good to be true is absurd in my eyes.
Have a good day all,
Muel
Again Palmer, not calling you out as you are fully welcome to invest as you please.
I understand your logic, I just don’t agree with it. I think what is ruffling my feathers slightly is people not acknowledging the fundamentals.
If the Atomic deal falls through we still have 15% which keep the lights on at COPL indefinitely. In the process of negotiating this deal we managed to secure debt refinance of $40m right? With an additional war chest of $20m?
So, even with Atomic falling through and without Nigeria we are still no worse off. What I do see however is COPL having the ability to raise significant amounts of cash, so we could chase another distressed asset. Even if this requires another placing we wont be worse off, because I believe a similar deal will be negotiated.
Again I accept I could be wrong, but surely these are simple business fundamentals I am highlighting. Best case scenario we get both Atomic and Nigeria. Anything after that is gravy.
Regarding the article I’ve not read it yet but my understand too was regarding new licences.
Just a side note, the general purpose of forums is to go and turn over stones.. then we bring all our stuff together and scrutinise it. If you would be so kind to share information you are quoting it makes it easier for the collective to discuss.
Muel
No worries Palmer. I respect your view but I do find it odd that you would randomly sell 75% of your holding when there has been no news.
If you believe in OPL 226 even on the free surely you would of waited for that day no? I don’t own your money or your decisions but there’s something that just strikes me as peculiar about some of those statements then declaring you’ve sold 75% of your holding.
I’m not calling you out by any means, but simply saying it’s all available on google is all well and dandy but a document saying not to sign off any deals until a dispute is resolved also stinks a little too. I would doubt such information would be public and if it is why not provide it?
Again, not calling you out. Just simply stating what I see.
Enjoy fixing your car, I can’t stand working on mine!
Muel
Palmer, is the documentation you have seen open information?
Muel
Nice one CawCaw, sounded like you were mulling it over yesterday.
Muel
Isn’t the Atomic fella getting his shares locked in based on closing price 31st Jan? So essentially closing price today?
Muel
I was thinking this myself, being sat at 0.24 and then the sudden jump to buy may have been slightly off putting. I presume the market will adjust soon.
Muel
I’d hate to quash anyone’s ambition but I fail to see how going to court with an insurance firm would relate to deal confirmation?
I am quite naive around such matters however.
Muel