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The bod would be well advised not to discount from the SP too deeply on any equity raise anyway. They have skin in the game. And part of what they're trying to achieve is attract new LTH shareholders to a new sector and build credibility. Best for all stakeholders for this to be a steady riser as alt foods take off. It's not your typical (sh) it or bust pie in the sky traders dream AIM natural resource play raising money for a wildcat oil drill.

From the results announcement. Worth a re-read:

Award under the International Arbitration

On 23rd December, Cairn announced that the tribunal established to rule on its claim against the GoI had found in Cairn's favour.



The tribunal ruled unanimously that India had breached its obligations to Cairn under the UK-India Bilateral Investment Treaty and awarded to Cairn damages of US$1.2 billion plus interest and costs, which immediately became payable. The total due at the year-end was US$1.7 billion.



Cairn has engaged directly with the GoI regarding satisfaction of the Award, which is also enforceable against Indian-owned assets in more than 160 countries that have signed and ratified the 1958 New York Convention on the Recognition and Enforcement of Foreign Arbitral Awards. Cairn has already taken steps to have the Award recognised in certain major jurisdictions in which Indian sovereign assets have been identified.



Cairn is extremely confident that satisfaction of the award will be achieved either by negotiated settlement or by enforcement against Indian assets (with potential financing and risk sharing options available to accelerate access to cash recovered through enforcement). However, neither route to recovery is sufficiently well defined in terms of the timing and amount of expected settlement to provide the virtual certainty required by IAS 37 "Provisions, Contingent Liabilities and Contingent Assets" which would allow recognition of an asset on the Balance Sheet. The receivable under the Award therefore remains classified as a contingent asset at this time.



The taxation of future receipts in respect of the Award is currently uncertain. Further work will be undertaken to assess the tax treatment of future receipts in respect of the Award, which may include discussions with relevant tax authorities.

Still not showing in my HL account :(
Par for the course with HL sadly.

A quick look at ORR yesterday suggested to me that Tim Livesey and the ORR team have picked a good asset there (Senala), although have been let down by slow progress from the JV partner (Iamgold, who have an option to earn a 70% interest). Hopefully, this indicates that Tim and the ORM team have similarly good ability and judgement picking the right assets, and that ROC is therefore also good. Certainly looks good from what we've been told so far. ORM will however need to pick the right partners in ROC and hold them to account. If this deal ever gets signed of course.

But the harm and equity decrease is historic and irrelevant now. What's the relevance going forward? ORM now has approx €5m cash, some other assets and negligible debt. The SP's already collapsed and the retained losses reflect the loss made on the W mine disaster. (Sh) It happened, but it's over now. We are where we are, moving on to a completely new project. Going forward, there's now only "positive value" left in the retained losses, as they can be offset against future profits to reduce tax liability. Shareholders will benefit from ORM keeping more of the future profits, of course they'll benefit, and €37m is a lot of profit to soak up before tax is payable. And a company with €5m + other assets and no debt is not at risk of bankruptcy, despite having €37m retained losses. Why would any potential lender or stakeholder view retained losses negatively, knowing we're now looking at a totally new and different project, nothing whatsoever to do with Barruecopardo and how the losses arose? The €37m is not a liability.

If you're right, ORM would simply hive down its assets into a new company, float that, and put ORM into voluntary liquidation.

Maybe the way to look at this, on the Silicon Valley comparison, and a 10 year timeframe, is to say...

In Mar 2011, Apple shares were $12, in Mar 2021, they are $120....

On a 20 year timeframe, your starting point is < 50c....

ANIC have laid out the best part of £8m in the last 5 months; perhaps the 5 actual investments are the 5 pipeline investments tabled in the October RNS to be completed by Q1 2021. There is not much more than £0.5m left now for delivering any further investments, even though previously stated aspirations are to increase current investment from $100m to $500m by the end of this year. Maybe we'll hear the next investment proposals soon.

So realistically funding will be needed shortly imo. The question is how that's achieved, not if funding will be obtained, imo. We don't know the answer, but I imagine various funding options will be carefully considered, taking everything into account including NAV and SP. I also can't see a raise overly discounted to the SP. It's an AIM co sure, but so much better than many.

I remember saying on this chatboard around Oct last year, words to the effect of "cautiously add below 6p imo". Well I got that wrong, should have said "fill yer boots", and it's looking more and more likely that this will balloon in short order.

It'll be interesting to see how the next funds are raised. Yes it might be another simple equity raise at a discount. I wonder if it might be a bit more sophisticated this round, eg some longer term debt in the mix perhaps. And time for a big new cornerstone investor not connected to Jim or his mates maybe.

It may also be time to fund by taking profits in the not too distant future - to start selling some investee company shares (eg if BlueNalu IPO later this year at a good price). Or selling out of a perceived "fold" investee (as opposed to the "bold" or "sold" ones, to use Jim's simple categorisations). Jim mentioned in the MI event there are some concerns. Not all will succeed.

Not a share to try and trade imo. Buy, or hold and add on dips.

SP's up again today :)

It's coming on the radar and gaining traction, and will be unstoppable if the comparison with Silicon Valley in the 1970s is valid.

ORM has minimal debt, if any.

No realistic prospect of a divi anytime soon, certainly. It's a new project, and most important at this stage is to build cash, and the less tax paid, the better. This is a growth prospect atm. If an early dividend is important to you, yes best to sell.
ORM can carry forward the €37m retained losses for tax purposes. They can be set off against profits in future, to reduce tax, such that ORM can keep more of those profits. To have the losses available, and the fact it's such a large figure, is really useful imo, indeed part of the investment case.

BarneyR
Are you misreading the €37m retained loss to be a debt or other liability perhaps?
Bad to make a loss at the time of the loss of course. I know, I was there in the great tungsten mine debacle :(
But it's good news now, as it can be deducted from profits in the new project going forward to reduce at least some tax otherwise payable :)

BarneyR
I'm not sure you're reading this right.
Correct there's no trading profit, which was because previously ORM had a tungsten mine which they exited before it got going, and they are now looking at the ROC assets deal. So there's not a lot to be read in to historic trading profit (or lack of it) now.
The retained losses are a good thing, because they may be tax deductible.
The sellers WANT ORM shares, they agree with ORM the equity/cash formula is best.
The TA issue is that TA won't approve the resolution authorising ORM to issue shares. The deal could proceed with cash. So TA's concern is perhaps not to give away equity, rather than parting with too much cash. ORM want to retain some cash to fund the project down the line.
And I don't think you can compare historic cash burn to work out what cash might be now. Building a W mine in Spain cf negotiating a Cu deal in ROC. It's chalk and cheese.

I agree with much of what you say Joe666, although Jim has serious skin in the game via his investment companies' shareholdings. He's also genuinely committed to animal welfare and environmental issues, so there's a degree of philanthropy and altruism too. There's no management fees in ANIC, and the back end performance fee is reasonable imo. The SP's up 200% since the last fund raise, the sector's gaining traction, and the range of investees is attractive, from start ups to cusp-of-production. This is a buy for spectacular returns in 5 or 10 years imo, if like Jim, you believe alternative food production is the direction of travel the world's headed in.

MMs accumulating maybe. The impatient may sell, but the reward may come from time in the market, rather than timing the market.

The most recent raise was in Oct '20 @ 6pps, after which ANIC had £8.15m available for investment (net). Since then, they've invested approx £7.5m (in BlueNalu, CellX, Supermeat, Meatable and Vitrolabs) according to the subsequent RNSs, so if that's a complete list they have approx £0.5m left. According to Jim Mellon on last week's MI event, ANIC has a total of about $100m invested now. That's up from $50m in Nov '20, when they were targetting $500m by end 2021. So yes expect significant fundraising soon.

If Jim and others are right when they compare the alternative foods sector to Silicon Valley in the 1970s, it's a strong buy.

ANIC is also the only public company in this space for retail investors to get exposure.

All in my understanding/opinion DYOR.

I applied for the max possible in my HL Sipp. Earlier today the entry for the new shares stated the full max number of new shares, and said "Interim Line". That's now changed to "ASSD line". Does this mean I'll be getting all the shares I applied for? An earlier HL message said any new shares would hit my account by the end of this week.

https://www.malcysblog.com/2021/03/oil-price-cairn-gkp-president-and-finally/

Fingers crossed for a big simple and quick settlement/resolution with India. Could get very messy with asset seizures, finance and risk sharing agreements with repo agents, champerty lawsuits from India in response.

I imagine there'll already be a fixed agreed effective date of completion (eg a date in Feb), and if so changes in copper prices alone wouldn't therefore affect the likelihood of the deal getting done or not. We've no way of knowing the relative bargaining strength of the parties. Indeed ORM are perhaps the stronger, as we've been told the deal could proceed with cash. Because it hasn't yet, ORM perhaps have the time to work on TA to accept the optimum equity/cash formula.

I take your point about management time needing to be focussed with so much going on, although so far CNE are handling the Award situation very well imo. The steer from CNE's IIs is seemingly towards taking the "strongest" approach to enforcing it. CNE are engaging intensively with GOI to explore the best way forward for shareholders, given all the circumstances and competing arguments for full hard enforcement vs compromise and settlement. Crucially at this stage, CNE aren't losing time, by simultaneously getting on with obtaining the court orders needed for enforcement, if that becomes the preferred approach. It's the right and reasonable thing to do, a kind of insurance policy if settlement talks break down. It's a lever in the negotiations, done openly and "amicably" with full explanation to GOI, no doubt.

The other point which occurs is that there's potentially going to be an enormous amount of cash coming in in the short term from NS divestment and the Award settlement. As Egypt will be funded by new facilities and some existing cash, this may translate into another significant special divi, soon.