Member Info for Florence141414

It’s unclear to me whether or not they still hold that as elsewhere in that presentation they refer to information only up to the 31st of December, the reporting period in which they also mentioned closing a short copper position although that appeared to be a put and the one in the presentation is a short etf so they may well be different positions.

Even so it is one of 14 positions that make up their tactical portfolio which itself is only 19% of NAV so it’s very small. Shouldn’t do too much harm.

Cerrado, Barrick Gold and Ascendant all having really good weeks, all direct shareholdings for MAFL, all good for the NAV

Hi nom,

Haha yes I was trying to be conservative so as not to be accused of `pumping’ but yeah all the noises since the PEA suggest that it could be even better!

Agreed but I think liquidity is a problem that solves itself when the numbers are this attractive. Maybe not today or tomorrow but once the market sees an 8-9m NAV update that is made up of cash and mostly public assets, it becomes too attractive to ignore (I hope!)

They’ve appointed a guy from redcorp due to his expertise of Portuguese mining. They even specifically mentioned the 80% earn in as part of the press release. As far as I can make out, the NAV is now almost guaranteed to become 9m GBP in the very near future which is the 5.6m at 31st December plus the remaining 4.5m dollars (3.24m GBP) of the earn in from Ascendant.

If Lagoa Salgada goes ahead we will also be due 20% of the 202m dollars of post tax cash flow generation over 9 years per the PEA published on the Ascendant website. If accurate this would equate to a further 4.48m dollars (3.23m GBP) every year for 9 years.

Am I missing something or is this one of the best bargains in the market right now!?

Thanks GS

That’s really helpful

Did you happen to notice when they mentioned the 38m dollars in the bank towards the end? When I saw that in the results I had assumed that was after the placing but before the 26m acquisition so today’s cash balance would be 12m dollars but he seemed to be suggesting that it’s 38m post acquisition.

If anyone has clarification on this it would greatly appreciated. Thanks.

Hi Bismarck,

Personally I’m invested because despite some restructuring costs and write downs, the underlying business has remained cash flow positive throughout. I agree that a lot of the problems were pre Covid but a significant amount of the recent drop in profits is due to fewer people on the roads etc.

If you discount the exceptional items from the 2019 figures (I think mostly impairment of goodwill and some restructuring) then the underlying operations made a circa £9m profit, if they return to those numbers once the Covid/restructuring is out of the way then it’s very, very cheap, in fact around a 4x EV/net income multiple.

Of course though that is a big 'if' as the new legislation regarding road traffic accidents will likely cost them some business, exactly how much remains to be seen. In my opinion the share price is currently factoring in a catastrophe where we may only see serious distress.

All IMO of course ????

Hi All, I'm new to MAFL. looks good to me, 5.6m of NAV which could soon be more like 6.8m if the Cap Energy write down gets reversed with oil prices buoyant again plus a $1m cash payment due in June (assuming all other holdings being equal of course) and that's all before the potential large earn out from Lagoda Salgada. Also has a couple of years of operating expenses in the bank and mostly publicly traded assets so the stated NAV is reasonably transparent.

If there are any risk factors LTHs think I've missed i'd be grateful of any input. Thanks and GLA

Does anybody know how many warrants we have in Whitehawk please? It looks as though we are quite onside on those if these sums are correct: 49% up as of 31 July 2020 when sp was 0.14 making warrant price circa 0.095. So at today’s whitehawk sp of 0.30 we are over 3x our executable price of 0.095.

1. Is that correct?

2. I’ve tried looking but can’t find the number of warrants we actually have, any help would be appreciated.

Thanks all.

Yes it does seem a little contradictory to say that visibility is poor but we’re also confident of at least 4.2m PBT for the year.

It is also a little down in the mouth on that basis too. If you take him at his word that this is the base case for the year it represents an 8x EV/PBT. Not bad for a worst case scenario IMO.

One of RGOs investments Tanzanian Gold just went up 130% because some Reddit guys thought it was a crypto coin with a similar EPIC!

Not sure if RGO hold warrants in them but if so let's hope someone was on the ball!