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Gilt yields are now only 0.124% above where they were at the last published portfolio valuation of 63.3p. I think we’ll see a sale announced within the next couple of weeks at 60p.

It’s probably been done for a while but they’ve just been waiting to announce when gilts edged lower to keep everyone’s faces relatively egg free.

Surprised not to see a bigger move this morning. In line was effectively ahead as everyone was expecting a miss.

Wet winters have always been their Achilles heel, yet they’ve just negotiated the wettest on record without impacting trading.

So I’d expect shares to be trading higher than 5x net profits (excluding the one off gain)

ChatGPT says our new significant shareholder was instrumental in the life science REIT deal. Even if it’s too late stage for him to make an impact here, at least we have someone on board who has a successful history with REIT deal arbitrage.

Some decent volume going through for the first time in a while… announcement imminent perhaps?

This feels Octopus are forced sellers into a market bereft of buyers. The company itself is doing nothing wrong.

I think the ported mortgage makes it very unlikely the buyer will pull out, no matter the macro.

You’re just not getting those rates over that duration any other way.

This is getting silly now. You’re either a matter of weeks away from making 20% or you’ve got an ongoing 11.5% free cash flow yield if the deals fall through.

I’ve got in my notes that they said the 1.03p quarterly dividend is 1.5x covered. Implying they could pay 1.5p (6p annualised) if they wanted.

At that level who even cares what gilt yields are doing to an excel calculation of property values.

Looks correct to me except for one thing. If you’re deducting the finance income (which I agree is appropriate) you should also add back the tax paid on this too. So FCF figure should be a touch higher.

I think it's appropriate to strip out the seed investment capital gains but not the 9m investment income (which is interest and divi income from the seeds, which IMO are repeatable and should be considered ongoing profits). That gives 35.2m underlying PBT from the core fund management business and these repeating cash flows in H1. It's reasonable to assume H2 will be considerably better due to the increase in AuM. So let's say they do 45m underlying PBT in H2. So a 90m PBT run rate giving post tax annualised net underlying profits of 67.5m.

That puts it on a 28.2x multiple of underlying run rate net profits. Net profits which assume an improved H2 and add back 18m of profits the company itself sees fit to adjust out.

It does have a strong balance sheet but strong enough to justify that multiple...? I'm not so sure.

Surprised they are taking accepting a bid at trough valuation. I’d rather take the 10% annual yield ourselves than sell it off for someone else’s benefit.

H225 to December update said all divisions were slightly below expectations meaning they'll do 2.2b revenue for the year. Crucially they say at same margins so I estimate adjusted PBT will be 50-55m so no big drop. The good news was that their pipeline was up 40% from H1 to 16.5b, 250m cost savings have been achieved and the legacy pension contracts have been offloaded at a cost of 100m. Even if that pipeline can only deliver flat revenue, 2.2b next year with cost savings and the problem contracts gone should do their minimum 6% EBIT target which turns to 60m net profits after finance and tax. Those numbers get even bigger if revenue grows or they hit upper end EBIT target.

Interested to see how the market reacts here

Does it focus on the small but tangible revenue drop? Or the large but unbanked pipeline?

I mean imagine Dbay having to explain themselves to their clients if neither themselves or Cicor make a higher bid and the share price, inevitably, tanks…

‘So first off we simply told them we weren't accepting their bid. That didn't work.

Next we bought an extremely large blocking stake to show them we were serious. That didn't work.

Then we came out and pretended we were going to make an offer ourselves. That didn't work.

So anyway, long story short, we bought a huge stake right at the top of the market. No higher bids from either ourselves or Cicor materialised and we've lost 50% of your money.

You’re welcome. That’ll be two percent please.‘

Possibly. But to do so with no real intention to make a bid themselves if push comes to shove… that seems a high risk strategy with a stake their size. They’d essentially be risking watching their stake drop 30-60% in the hope of bluffing a 10-20% uplift.

I may be proved wrong but I think they’re serious.

I think DBAY must have every intention to make a bid now.

Why acquire a big stake up in the 140s blocking the cicor bid? Just to fake your own intention to make a bid that falls down in due diligence and watch the price drop back below 100 for the foreseeable future?

I have a feeling a holdings in company RNS is coming from Harwood. Which way is the sword going to fall though?

A very simple sum of the parts gets you at least 59m here. They’ve just delivered 2.2m EBIT with approximately 37m cash in the bank. Even putting that EBIT on a miserly 10x (which should be much more if forecast growth to 2.9m is achieved in the current period) makes the whole thing worth 59m.

I was sceptical, like everyone else, before they confirmed in line trading for FY25. Now it looks like an easy 20% gain and more if the next update is also in line.

I think the value is really good at these levels.

Good reason to believe 58m net profit could get to 70m this year as 3%+ lfl growth would more than offset 40m NI increase plus 10m other cost increases announced this morning. Also, I calculate at least 7m interest savings in FY26.

That’s a conservative 17m pre tax improvement.

Moreover, they purchased and cancelled 8% of the share count last year. Even if that drops to 5% this year, that would make today’s buyback adjusted market cap sub 700m.

So we’re being asked to pay less than 10x current period cash flows. That’s bonkers for the resilience this business has shown in the toughest of times for the toughest of sectors.

Feels like a bid rumour but can’t find anything…

Dbay need to stop bidding this price up or they’re gonna have to make a bid in the 200’s!

Shooting themselves in the foot!