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Even paid for broker research is only forecasting 15m pbt by the end of FY26. So today’s market cap is around 20x (post tax) a recovery that’s two years away.

I get the balance sheet is decent but why would anybody pay that?

JV has more than doubled our money in Luca now. Can’t argue with that 👍🏼👍🏼

Either this is trading 7.5x forecast net profits or a profit warning cat has escaped its bag

Hoping it’s the former but very much expecting it’s the latter

I see Pets was selected in Zeus’s highest conviction shared for 2025 today.

A cynic might say that Pets are (presumably) a client and therefore so what.

But then again I’m sure Zeus have many more clients than the handful of shares they’ve chosen today.

The board have piled the pressure on themselves now. The next 12-18 months will be very interesting.

I agree there is more to be had but it is reliant on margins being improved.

I’d be just as happy, or perhaps even more happy considering the scale benefit, to have that happen within the Volex structure.

Take the money and hold the volex shares. Maybe buy some more with the cash proceeds.

I’m personally really annoyed that it took Volex coming out publicly for us to be made aware of the bids. That shows me management at TT are working for their own interests more than they are shareholder’s. So not having them in control is now a priority for me.

I don’t know. Every Wetherspoons I’ve been in lately is absolutely heaving. I think they will raise prices quite easily and pick up business from customers priced out of other pubs dealing with the same NI/Living Wage issues.

It might take a trading period to get the balance right but I’d rather be in Wetherspoon’s shoes than any other pub chain or independent right now

So much more wiggle room on pricing and so many potential new customers to catch on their way down the value chain

Oak bloke, if you’re out there, thank you 👍🏼

We can’t be sure but the last few days of price strength is suggestive to me that those in the know believe a deal is being done in the background

It does indeed!

Good to hear the comments from brokers (who have presumably spoken to TT management) that they reckon 160-170p might do it. If that has come from TT management then it’s great to get the first tentative inkling they might be constructively engaging with Volex.

Thank you very much, really appreciated 👍🏼

There’s multiple catalysts for a share price re-rate but in the end they all come back to the same thing… selling our assets for the price at or above that which they’re valued in our NAV.

It’s not as though JV doesn’t know he needs to turn these paper profits to real cash. He just has very little control as to when or even if that happens.

Ideon is a private company in growth mode. He could try and sell out to a new investor at the next funding round. But why would Ideon allow a new investor to give their money to JV rather than issue more equity and take it themselves? That’s the whole point of the funding round after all.

Golden Sun is a nascent gold mine in Costa Rica. Who the hell do you sell that to?

They also owe us the first lot of gold that gets poured which is a separate deal from our ownership stake. If that gold comes quickly then that’s a monetisable event. It could be that it never comes and we end up with a few hundred hectares of Costa Rican mountainside.

Lagoa Salgada stake is the obvious one. Ascendant have paid up all their cash obligations to date on the agreement. Other than their own ability to raise capital there is no reason to believe they won’t stump up their contractually obligated 5% NPV when the time comes.

Then there’s the ESG accreditation thing which has the same issues, in terms of monetisation, as Ideon except more extreme because it’s even smaller

Outside of the Luca stake and our physical gold, I wouldn’t expect monetisation or share price catalysts for a while yet but when they come, if they come, they could be huge.

Does anyone know what was in yesterday’s IC article titled ‘Volex turns up the heat…’

Bit cheeky as it’s behind a paywall but thought I’d chance my arm

I’m having trouble getting through to Kate Moy at TT to tell the board I’d like for them to engage with Volex so I can accept the offer.

Is anyone else having the same problem? Just goes to show how little the company care about our interests and are solely concerned with their own.

All the more reason for us all to keep applying the pressure and make sure this approach is successful.

Dibs on a beach house if GSR don’t come through 🤣

This may not be the highest quality business but the value relative to market cap is just getting silly now.

11.75% capital return if you combine buybacks and dividend

8x PBT earnings multiple

And half the £48m market cap in net current assets

This move seems odd in the context of the wider market. Don’t get me wrong, I think it’s fully justified on a value basis, it just seems like strange timing considering how much fear there is around the budget at the moment.

Is it possible there’s a leaky shire sale in the works we don’t know about?

I’ve got no problem waiting a few years to turn 11p into 30p. The thing that concerns me is the largest part of that 30p may never come to fruition. If I knew with 100% certainty that Ascendant will pay the put option, I’d have a lot more than 3% of my portfolio invested here.

As it stands, risk reward is still pretty good because monetisation of the put option, golden sun, the ideon stake or Luca at 50% higher than it is right now would all be meaningful relative to the current market cap.

All of those things are possible but none of them are guaranteed.

Liontrust AUM is down a third in two years. That doesn’t mean they couldn’t be selling for Bango specific reasons. However, considering we also had a £38k director buy yesterday, I’d say the balance of probability is very much in favour of forced selling from Liontrust.

It definitely feels like the gold price is high enough now that some tangible benefit must be coming to MAFL

Whether that’s the Luca stake going parabolic, golden sun pulling a rabbit out the hat, an ideon capital raise/IPO/Buyout at a premium, EDM suddenly becoming much more chatty about the prospect of monetising their stake or Ascendant coming up with a funding deal

One or a few of those things must be getting increasingly likely right now

💡 City of Richmond-based businesses are developing the innovations of tomorrow! 🌟

Today, the Honourable Harjit S. Sajjan, Minister of Emergency Preparedness and Minister responsible for the Pacific Economic Development Agency of Canada (PacifiCan), announced $4.7 million in PacifiCan and Government of Canada funding to help two companies grow locally and compete globally, including:

🌎 $2,700,000 for Ideon Technologies to commercialize their innovative mining technology that allows mining exploration companies to locate deposits while minimizing environmental impact.