Member Info for Florence141414

You can probably buy for a 4m market cap right now. Either there is something horrific going on in the background of which the market is unaware or this is the biggest opportunity that we are ever likely to see in the market.

Far be it from me to recommend what other people should do with their money but hopefully someone finds a quick summary useful.

Just to recap: 2.2m of listed equities, 2.7m earn ins due by year end (majority of the total ascendant commitment has already gone into the project), CEO strongly intimated that the Ideon stake is being re-rerated from 270k to 1.2m by September, unquantifiable 5-8% stake in Costa Rican gold mine that is operationally breakeven, residual ownership of Mine in Portugal with current value anywhere from 0-30m

Short of an outright fraud it can’t envisage a scenario in which it’s worth less than 2m and it could be worth as much as 40m with a favourable rub of the green.

That’s on offer right now for 4m. Market madness in my humble opinion.

I agree. They haven’t had any problems raising capital to date and I would expect that those drilling results just made it easier not more difficult.

Very interesting comments regarding the Ideon stake.

so he just said that Ideon will likely get a valuation of 50-100m in the next round of funding.

He says it had a 6m valuation at 0.37

They invested at 0.37 and 1.00

So our blended average is probably in the 60s or a 12m valuation which was carried as £237k a year ago

I.e. If it gets valued at 60m (the lower end of the range stated) our 237k Ideon NAV will represent 1.2m NAV in the next set of accounts.

That is of course an unlisted and therefore illiquid holding but at least the valuation will have been verified by people actually putting their money where their mouth is as opposed to some obscure accounting protocol.

Fair enough but you have to marry that with the current value proposition. At 4.18m market cap, all you need is the 2.7m earn ins, the 2.2m equity portfolio and the combined value of Ideon/golden sun circa 1m to give you a 5.9m value approaching yesterday’s highs.

As long as you believe the earn ins will come, the proposition is completely de-risked for anyone buying in at these prices. The cash in the bank and equities alone will exceed the current market cap by year end. Any risk of producing, or failing to produce, a working mine will be Ascendant’s not MAFL’s.

‘the $3.5m is already included in the net asset value, just moving from receipts to real cash - if the amount is paid!’

Yes but it’s currently held at a discount so their will be a transfer from receipts to cash but there will also be a NAV increase as the cash received will be a higher figure than the current carry value that will be deducted from receipts.

`hopping around like a scalded cat’ is not something anyone has ever said about MAFL before today. In fact, the usual criticism is the exact opposite.

I agree Shaz. It sounds like the chance of a mine actually materialising has significantly increased in recent months.

We have a 2.2m share portfolio and 2.7m of earn ins due by year end. Even at 5% ownership and taking into account the chance the project might not happen you’ve got to think the increasing likelihood is now worth 2m of equity at least.

This share has to be worth 7m with the information currently available and a darn sight more if we ever see a zinc mine. Let alone a successful negotiation with the government.

I also noticed the lack of guidance which admittedly was a little disappointing.

Having said that, I think that a return to more normal trading conditions is to be expected, and more importantly, already priced in at these levels.

I think the dividend payment this year will cost them roughly £3.2m. Profits after tax will be about £8m. That means that we can afford to make 60% less next year and still fully cover a 6% dividend from operations without having to dip into the huge cash pile.

Tide turning?

Absolutely shocked to see it trading hands for 3m quid today. Their listed equity portfolio alone was worth 2.1m on December 31st, that doesn’t account for the uplift in all the gold miners since then either. Barrack is up 50% in that time for example.Ascendant have shown no sign of slowing down in their commitments to the earn in, in fact , quite the opposite. So the 2.7m gbp by year end looks as good as banked. That doesn’t say anything for the promising unlisted stakes in Ideon and Golden Sun. Cap Energy does look to be dead in the water but the odd misfire is to be expected in this sector.And then there’s the residual ownership stake in LS which is a ton of money at 5%, 15% or anywhere in between.Once the earn in money is banked it would take multiple catastrophes for the equity here to be worth anything less than 6m.

Hopefully some good read across from today’s quixant results. Their outlook and current trading for 2022 sounded very bullish to me.

Did anybody see the Cenkos results and subsequent share price movement? Could be some interesting read across for Finncap… similar operations, similarly strong balance sheets, both have likely just had exceptional one off years but Cenkos trades at 9/10x that exceptional year’s profits whereas Finncap trades at 5/6x that number.

The only difference I can see is a bit of Simon Thompson backing, although admittedly I don’t know the businesses inside out.

Explorer/producer

Hi Cane, I believe that as the windfall tax is included in cost of sales, it is not therefore omitted from the EBITDA number. I believe the tax left out is just the tax expense figure of 419k. Although that is not to say that an EBITDA calculation for an oil and gas explorer/product is not plenty egregious in a number of other ways.

I've just run a quick sum of the parts valuation to make sure I have'nt missed anything so thought i'd share in case others might get some clarity out of it.

Taking the listed equities (mostly pires) from the last HY report at 2.5m that number is probably down to about 1.7m. The pre-ipo investments were 2.5m with imminent ipos that will likely turn this from 2.5m unlisted equity to 4m of listed equity. So that's probably 5.7m of total listed equity holdings once the ipos complete.

Then you have the 6.4m loan book.

Plus 2m of cash minus 1.5m of payables. So let's say 0.5m net cash.

So we might have 12.6m of tangible equity if the ipos go ahead as expected. Whilst the current market cap is a big discount to this figure it is not altogether unusual for low market cap investment firms to trade at such discounts.

However, here is what I believe separates RGO from these types of companies. Most of these discounted investment companies cost shareholders money each year because they have little to no regular income and any they do have is far exceeded by admin expenses which chips away at the tangible equity. If you look past the changes in value of the equity holdings in the last HY report and focus only on the 900k of interest and advisory income minus the 600k of admin and advisory fees, RGO are operationally profitable to the tune of 300k in the HY or 600k annualised. Moreover this is not accrued non cash interest that may never materialise if the underlying loan fails in the future. These are actual cash payments received in the period.

I think it’s a great opportunity. Thoughts welcome.

They don’t have any debt. In fact they have a huge pile of cash.

Ha

I wish I was, I’d be in Portugal right now digging us up that zinc at these prices!

http://www.canadianwarrants.com/company/a/ASND.html

A bit more info here, just some warrants that came to market upon the 2017 listing that had an expiration date of today March 7 2022. Completely separate from the actual share listing.

https://money.tmx.com/en/quote/ASND.WT

Yep they are warrants not shares. Nothing to worry about. Cerrado up 14% today too!

Must be incorrect as you can see a few trades going through right up to the close.