Member Info for fleccy

"Fleecy who knows everything about everything to do with BT - investing, technical and the comms market in general"

Thankyou for acknowledging my wealth of knowledge around everything, it's nice to be appreciated. Thankyou again.

"time to tighten the belts , time to be thrifty"

This may seem contrarian to many, but high inflation actually helps as long as there aren't crippling interest rate rises. After I purchased my first house, interest rates hit 15%, around 1990, and although my mortgage repayments increased, I had some really big pay rises in the following years. High inflation, and interest rates, although painful at the time, led to increased pay rises and effectively erodosion of my debt, since it made my mortgage more manageable when interest rates subsequently decreased, but on a higher wage. My wages doubled during the 90's, some of the pay rises were due to promotion, but most were due to inflation.

Just to add, I'm pretty sure the Government will find ways to punish P&O, if employment law is inadequate.

"If the P&O vessels concerned were not UK Flagged then UK Employment Law doe's not apply."

It's indefensible what P&O did, hopefully the Government will find a way to severely punish them. To my mind, if the job was advertised in the UK, and the employment was offered within the UK, then UK employment law should apply. You can't just throw someone out of a job, without any rights.

"Fleccy
Your comments are a disgrace. You are pig ignorant and know very little of how many millions of people live in this country. You should be ashamed of yourself."

Actually what I've said is true of many, I've seen it. Many seem incapable of managing money, living for the moment, with money slipping through their fingers like water through a sieve. These people live beyond their means, and worry about paying the bills tomorrow. The only difference between me and the many I'm talking about, is that I've kept debt to a minimum throughout my life, and only bought as and when I could afford something.

"Rishi Sunak branded 'out of touch' as many can't afford food 'let alone solar panels'"

Well they should give up boozing, fags, and takeaways then, or not overstretch themselves on their mortgages. I've seen many complaining about being short of money, with a fag in one hand, and a pint in the other.

"interesting to note that non executive director has just purchased shares to the extent of €500,000.
strong vote of confidence."

The problem for Airlines is the price of Oil. The EU is looking at options to eliminate the reliance on Russian Oil, and with the Oil sanctions from US, UK, etc, things may take years to settle. I think the uncertainty of $100 plus price of a barrel of oil will lead to higher air fares, and therefore demand destruction with the other cost of living rises/demands. Do you pay your mortgage, fuel and food bill's, or go on holiday? Some will just throw caution to the wind, take on debt to pay for their holiday, but most wont.

As someone who entered the housing market in the 80's, when you could purchase a property on a single wage, there have been many reasons for house price increases.
When I was at school, my grandparents (both sides) lived in council houses and flats. After I purchased in the 1980's, house prices almost immediately jumped, my first house purchase was £29,500, and I sold that two years later for £59,500. Over the years, people have been encouraged to purchase their council houses, which many have done, adding to the UK's obsession with owning their home.
Things that have added to house price growth, imo:

Increase in women entering workforce, with dual income driving house price growth.
Property seen as a low tax rental investment, with many individuals and funds competing against first time buyers, therefore supporting the bottom of the market.
Government incentives to encourage house purchase.
Low interest rates.
Etc, etc, etc

There are many more, but all of the above have added to the UK populations obsession with property, I don't see anything changing the culture, apart from ridiculously high interest rates.

I would guess they're currently on target for around 4 Billion shares.

I used to think UK house prices were overdue a crash, that was around 2007 to 2012, when I was a regular visitor to website housepricecrash.co.uk. Although I believed houses were overpriced, even back then, it didn't hold me back from buying a house in Cornwall, but I did read posts from people who'd sold their house, and moved into rented accommodation awaiting the imminent crash. Apparently house prices did drop slightly, due to the financial crisis, but I didn't see any evidence where I lived, or was looking. I think the sector that took the hit, were new build apartments sold as buy to let investments, but the housing market didn't generally drop imo.
Big money has poured into the UK housing market, with investment funds buying up huge property portfolios aimed at the rental market, and competing directly with first time buyers, so I don't see the UK house prices dropping while demand is so high. Renters want to buy, as renting is dead money, and big money is enticed by the long term revenue from the UK rental market, one feeds the other. Since the UK housing market has defied gravity, time and time again, I don't see that changing in the foreseeable future.

You should probably rethink your username, it reads as Pdo Sullivan. For example, I wouldn't recommend usernames like "A.S. Muncher", "Eaton Beaver", or "Dill Doe", either.

"There will be no forced sellers"

Forced sellers of what?

"(remember the promise of no tax rises,) "

It's not the UK Governments fault that a Pandemic originating in China, or Russia invading Ukraine, have caused Geo-political and financial upheaval. Governments make promises based on stability forecasts, if circumstances change you can't blame the Government, and I'd say things have changed a lot over the past two years. If you want to blame anyone, for forced UK policy changes, look at China and Putin. You can blame Boris for imprudent parties, but you can't blame the Government for external forces out of their control, and I would say that about any Government, or political party.

"No flying abroad, no driving at home, forced onto transport vehicles controlled by the govt, fuel only for the very rich, everyone back under house arrest"

It's a lot worse in Ukraine. The World is now a different place, post 24th February 2022. The West wont be forgive the levelling of cities like Mariupol, and it's clear that Russia has no chance of taking the whole of Ukraine, without resourting to chemical weapons or tactical nukes, you only have to look at the progress the Russian forces have made so far. Even if the Russians take Kyiv, there's still huge areas in West Ukraine that they'll struggle to capture, never mind hold, and the Western alliance will keep flooding Ukraine with ever more specialised weapons. Russia will soon be completely cut off from the West, so I expect Russian Oil and Gas will be cut off too. If Russia can survive without the rest of the World, then good on them because they've effectively boxed themselves in. Should they go full armageddon on Ukraine, it wont help Russia going forward, since the economy of Ukraine will be decimated beyond repair. It was mad for Russia to invade Ukraine, made no sense, and appears to be the act of one man's paranoid view of the World.

I thought I'd Google "Trading Bots", to see what's out there, and was presented with countless content about Crypto Trading Bots, in fact I had to search for "Stock Trading Bots" which led to alternatives related to normal stock trading, suggesting "Automated Trading System" as a more appropriate search criteria. I do wonder how many average Joe's are trading using Algo's, and is this the 21st century alternative to charting?
It's easy to see the attraction of going down to the Gym, shopping, or whatever, while a computer program churns data and spits out money. It makes me wonder how price movement is affected, as these Algo's become ever more popular. My guess is that most of these will be set up to trade on some sort of momentum trend, adding to momentum in one direction or the other. If automated trading becomes ever more popular, eventually the only thing driving prices will be algo driven short duration trades, with institutional large trades transacted off book.
In my opinion, On Exchange Automated trading in combination with Off Book institutional trades, can lead to large cap stock prices becoming detached from their fundamental value. If a stock is consistently hammered to the downside, allowing the big players to mop up, it stands to reason that eventually the tide will turn and prices will take off on the upside.
Hold Long, Collect Dividends, Top Up, and Sell when the time is right, in my Opinion.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/11/automated-trading-systems.asp

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8oY1NdPm0mA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Hv0BQwYlPw

"XPS Pensions’ DB:UK tracker has estimated that a further £100bn* could be removed from the long-term liabilities of UK pension schemes if longer-term gilt yields were to increase in line with today’s base rate change. This would be in addition to the £380bn already removed from the 0.65% increase in base rates since 16 December 2021."

https://www.actuarialpost.co.uk/article/rate-rise-could-remove-pension-scheme-long-term-liabilities-20624.htm

https://www.pensionsage.com/pa/Rising-interest-rates-could-wipe-further-100bn-from-DB-long-term-liabilities.php

https://www.portfolio-institutional.co.uk/news-and-analysis/elephant-in-the-room-how-db-schemes-are-hedging-inflation-risks/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=elephant-in-the-room-how-db-schemes-are-hedging-inflation-risks

"GLIL Infrastructure, for example, has grown rapidly following increased institutional demand and has now hit £2.5bn. Similarly, the BT Pension Scheme has £3.8bn, or 7% of its portfolio, invested in property, including investments in Kings Cross Estate, and another £1.5bn in infrastructure.

The scheme has increased its hedge ratio against interest rate and inflation risks to 85% and 78%, respectively, using a combination of inflation linked bonds, and inflation and interest rate derivatives. But while alternative inflation hedges have become a growing part of DB scheme portfolios, the fact that most schemes are closed to further accrual and many are winding down, means that bonds will continue to remain a cornerstone of their portfolio.

More than half of DB investors say that there is no alternative to government bonds for the defensive part of their portfolio, according to Mercer. This means that investor appetite for linkers will continue to grow, despite the challenges."

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/mar/01/uk-private-pension-scheme-russia-uss

"The managers of telecoms company BT’s pension scheme said exposure to Russia was already minimal because of “governance concerns and ownership rights associated with the region”. It has been cutting it back further “since the beginning of the year”, a spokesperson said in a statement. It holds only £30m in Russian securities, compared with £192m in December. It is understood that BP’s pension scheme is also aiming to cut its exposure."

Wouldn't be suprising to see stocks finishing lower at the end of play today, after all it is a Friday in the middle of a war, with a couple of non trading days ahead.

"Just some weapons. With those everything else is obtainable.."

I disagree, the best defence is to stock up and hide. Have weapons, but for defensive use. Let everyone starve or kill each other, and after 12 months everything should have settled down lol

"It will be interesting to see how the switchblade ( loitering drone) swarm attacks work out . You really wouldn't want to a tank commander these days"

It appears the Russians weren't prepared for the Ukranian response, but drones are currently slow and easily shot down, or disabled with the right tech. There are many ways to to prevent drone attacks using electronic warfare, and suitable air defences. I would guess the NLAW and Javelin anti tank weapons have caused the majority of problems for Russia, but even that could have apparently been avoided, using the correct infantry support. The Ukranians are probably receiving real time intelligence from Nato's surveillance assets, and probably have more up to date information than the Russian Generals. If you can believe the news reports, everyone's surprised Russia didn't win this in short order, and this has highlighted weakness within the Russian military machine. Like all wars, everyone will be watching and studying, so it may change the direction of future weapons development.

"fleccy
You'll not be rushing out then to buy a $20m DGLD then.. Very popular with the super rich."

I couldn't invest in something I don't believe in. As I've stated previously, blockchain has many uses in logistics, IOT, etc, etc, but I don't see useful as a currency.

"Currently I hold one other stock with an link to developing a new Crypto algorithm."

If you're invested in a company that creates blockchain for real world uses, then I can see an investment case there, but investing in Bitcoin as a currency, or some sort of store of value, makes no sense to me. There are stores of value a lot more stable than Bitcoin, and should your crystal ball suggest armageddon is around the corner, would you invest in Bitcoin, Gold, or fill your fallout shelter with tinned foods? Assuming armageddon isn't in view, but some sort of economic calamity, then Gold is the historical choice since you don't need electricity, or computers, to utilise it as currency.