Member Info for fleccy

I take back my criticism of the BOD for the £2 Billion Buyback program, it looks as though they've played a blinder in view of the current falls. The only issue, for me, is the number of shares in issue and future plans around issuance for bonus and sharesave schemes. If the current buybacks increase the EPS, therefore allowing higher dividends going forward, then I'm all for it.

"Fleccy
"Well Ryanair is over €18 again, will it reach the magic €20?"
I should think not at the current time. Reason being quite obvious to all except dopey doug."

The current situation in Ukraine highlights the point I made about investing in dividend Stocks. Just like Ryanair, my investments are getting hammered, but I will still receive dividends however long this lasts. I don't see my stocks suspending their dividends, like BT and Lloyds did going into Covid, so I will have opportunities to reinvest dividends while this plays out. At the moment, the World seems to roll from one crisis into another, with a dysfunctional algo driven market incapable of sensibly valuing stocks and sectors. BT is currently touching 20% down for the month, where's BT's exposure to Ukraine? I don't see any impact on BT from Ukraine, so I'll probably look at topping up after the 5th April, same with my VOD and Lloyds investments. Ryanair is down over 31% since the 10th Feb.

"ultimately its about not panicking and seeing this through to the other side, eventually this war will just become a ''normal'' thing and market will have to get used to it"

Indeed, the market panics with the outset of uncertainty, and then recovers once it's assessed the risks. Times like these should be viewed as an opportunity, since the market uses a scattergun approach and sells everything. As long as China doesn't invade Taiwan this year, we'd have to expect the markets will recover at some point later this year. The big question is how far will the markets fall, before sanity returns.

"Remember they are all interconnected and one will lead to another and then another."

Highly unlikely that there'd be contagion in the banking system. Since 2008 Central Banks have ensured Firewall's prevent contagion, and UK banks have been forced to increase their Countercyclical Capital Buffers.

https://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/assets/pdfs/investors/financial-performance/lloyds-banking-group-plc/2021/q4/2021-lbg-fy-pillar3.pdf

"Putin unlikely to steal company assets in Russia, he focus on Robbing Ukraine"

Actually, assuming Putin carries on and eventually takes over the country, he'll have to feed and home the population, as well as rebuilding destroyed infrastructure, assuming he decides to hold on to Ukraine. If Putin pulls out, after the war, the West will move in and invest, and Ukraine will likely enter Nato in short order, along with Sweden and Finland. Russia will likely come out of this worse off, once the dust settles.

"With respect....you do appear to have blinkers on right now, with regards to the waves of consequences that the war is likely to have ....that somehow the UK economy is going to blissfully carry on, as if nothing has happened..."

Anything could happen, but the UK economy is quite insulated from Russia imo. Obviously higher energy prices make a difference, but would people stop using the internet, and mobiles, or stop paying their mortgages? Some maybe, but a minority is my guess. I'm not worried about a recession, because I don't see a big impact on my stocks from one. Big Interest rate rises are more likely to lead to a recession than war in Ukraine, but the BOE might slow down on tightening under the current circumstances.

"Everything, more or less, is down as people prefer cash. It’s an understandable reaction to war."

All my investments are UK focused, so little or no direct exposure to Russia, since the UK isn't at risk of invasion. Should WW3 breakout, cash/investments wont matter since everything could be wiped out. Even property isn't a good investment in War, and should WW3 lead to a dystopian future Gold wouldn't be any good either.

"despite you having everything given to you on a plate, you want to complain about how tough you’ve had it."

As you know Bladechunner, it's fleccy. It's a while since someone on my filter list posted, so I thought I'd see who it was from, and what was said. Where have I said that I've had it tough? Actually I don't have a problem with sitting on a paper loss, since it's all part and parcel of investing. Opportunities require forward knowledge of events, it's how you react when the unexpected happens that matters. I didn't believe that Putin would go through with invading Ukraine, since it's the act of a mad man with dire consequences for Russia, as well as Ukraine, so I ignored the warnings from US/UK intelligence services.
Come 6th April, ISA's will be topped up and investments made where I see value, it could be BT, Lloyds, or Vodafone, or all three, much will depend on where I see the most value. I'm not worried, as I don't see any impact on any of our investments from the war, and I expect our paper loss will become a gain once the market shakes off its fear. BT, VOD, and Lloyds all took big hits on the back of covid, and are similarly being affected by this war, which seems irrational to me in both cases, since Covid didn't have a big effect, and this war wont directly affect my stocks either. During Covid, I made big top ups, I'll just do the same again this time. To state that I should have sold BT at £2, and buy again at £1.50 assumes that I'd know future events before making investment decisions, which only Putin knew in this particlar case. As far as BT dropping down to £1.50, well that remains to be seen and isn't a foregone conclusion. Should BT be below £1.50 on the 6th April, then we might buy up to £40,000 worth, or invest elsewhere if I see better value, time will tell. In the meantime, we'll just keep reinvesting dividends, as well as making capital top ups, and the lower the price the more shares purchased.

"Can't understand why NATO/US Can't fight in Ukraine!!
They did fight the 3rd world countries...Very strange...IMHO"

It isn't really surprising, Russia are a superpower and Nato are trying to avoid WW3. Should Russia attack a Nato country, then that'd be a different matter, since Nato would have no choice but to repel the Russian forces. It's really stupid, what the Russians have done, since when they eventually win the war, they'll have to feed the people and rebuild infrastructure, while under threat from insurgents, and under massive sanctions from the West. It made no sense for Russia to invade Ukraine, since they'll never have the sympathy of the Ukranian people.

"hes controlling the Wests gas prices now. simple as that and they are FOOKED!"

You say that, but infrastructure can be built very quickly. If Russian Oil and Gas is dropped, just watch the investment that'll pour into Small Modular Reactors and Renewables. There are also oil and gas reserves that are deemed to expensive to extract, but at $100 plus they become viable. The west will find a way around the relaiance on Russian resources.

"The Daily Telegraph is intimating that BT’s failure to cut off links/connections in Russia was responsible for the big drop yesterday."

I read the article, but I didn't see anything suggesting yesterdays drop was anything to do with interconnect agreements. All the big Telecom companies will have interconnects with RT, as well as agreements for backhaul management of links transiting Russian territories, since the Russians wont allow remote management of such links. Telecoms would likely be the last thing to be disconnected, as the various Governments still need to communicate with each other. Even countries like Iran, and North Korea, have interconnections with neighboring countries. What I would say though, is the Telegraph uses articles like this to kick BT under the table, hopefully you'll understand the metaphor. Really it's a non story imo.

"It isn't "market games" at all and no "cash isn't trash" ...cash is opportunity and you need not look at the war itself"

I use the expression "Cash is Trash", to express the long term prospects for cash holders, relying on interest rates for returns. Anyone sitting on cash long term, is sitting on a depreciating asset. When an investor sells their current stock holdings, they then have to decide where to invest with their new cash holding. Investing in the current market isn't easy, and any new investment opportunity could easily backfire and surprise to the downside.
Personally I'm just going to continue adding to my Lloyds, Vod, and BT holdings, and wait for a turn in sentiment. Currently my cash reserves are sitting in instant access accounts, waiting for the timing of our next top ups. For anyone sitting on cash over the long term, I'd say it is trash.
Should things escalate into WW3, then it doesn't really matter where your money's invested, for obvious reasons. Should we be plunged into a new cold war, I don't see how my investments would be affected long term, as they have minimal exposure to Russia, Belarus, or Ukraine.

"BT is an obvious sell, you can reduce your position knowing the SP is very unlikely to soar even if the Ukraine situation is resolved tomorrow ."

Why do you say that? Why is BT less likely to rise over other stocks? BT was over £2 recently, with a big player showing an interest and accumulating an 18% holding, can you say that about many of the other stocks less affected today?
If you compare BT, Lloyds, VOD, and DT, Lloyds have perfgormed around the same, up over 1%, with DT down more than 14%.

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BT.A:LON?comparison=LON%3AVOD%2CLON%3ALLOY%2CETR%3ADTE&window=6M

Over 1 year, BT outperforms the other three stocks, so your statement that, "BT is an obvious sell, you can reduce your position knowing the SP is very unlikely to soar even if the Ukraine situation is resolved tomorrow ", has no evidence to back it up.

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BT.A:LON?comparison=LON%3AVOD%2CLON%3ALLOY%2CETR%3ADTE&window=1Y

"Having it in cash will be useless too as everything else gone/going up."

Indeed, Cash is Trash. I'm a bit befuddled as to why BT is amongst the biggest FTSE fallers, with normalish Volumes. Unless someone can tell me how BT is directly affected by the War, I have to assume its market games. If DT, or Drahi were bailing, I'd expect massive volumes but that doesn't appear to be the case. Anyone any idea why BT is getting hammered, over other stocks, today?

"First, as divi investor you will note that today's fall wipes out a full year's divis in one swoop, yeah , the SP will recover, maybe this pm or tomorrow or next week/month/year. "

On that point, it's hard to judge the market and stocks can turn in quick time. As far as dividend paying stocks, they give you income to spend, or reinvest, in times such as these. I could bail out, but what would I invest in instead? I know that BT isn't directly affected by the war in Ukraine, so its as good an investment as any at the moment. I could take the cash in the hope that BT drops another 20%, and jump back in at a lower price, but there's no guarantee the price will keep dropping. As it is I have further funds, and will top up as and when I feel fit, it could be BT or one of my other holdings.
It's easy to suggest a strategy, but everything comes with a risk.

"Unless there is some serious political manoeuvring then we are in for a pretty tough time"
The problem for OPEC is $100 plus oil leads to demand destruction. The longer the price is high, the faster the move to other forms of energy. If prices at the pumps get too high, then people will stop using their cars as much, limiting their travel to essential journeys. I expect Iran will be allowed to trade more oil, and massive pressure will be applied to Opec to produce more.
This is a new world, but I view Telecoms among the safer investments, even though you wouldn't think it from the current price action.

"That said , to all those who continue to hold in full , good luck."

The beauty of dividend paying stocks, is the income during the bad times. Granted BT used Covid as an excuse to drop the dividend, when the real reason was required investment in FTTP/5G, but I don't expect that to happen again under the current circumstances. I don't need luck, I just need to wait out the current drops, collect dividends, and top up as time goes by.

"Any thoughts on the impact on Global and Uk markets if the Russian market does completely collapse on the next open (whenever that is)"

I don't think anyone knows where collateral damage and contagion might appear, hence all stocks being hit. I'm not sure why Telecom stocks, with no Russia/Ukraine exposure, are getting hammered though. I can understand banks taking a hit, but I'm not sure why Lloyds is getting badly hit, since it's business is mainly UK focused.

"What are other longer term traders doing?"

I'm going to do what I did during Covid, hold and top up as funds become available. In the end the prices will either recover, with the alternative being that cash, or shares, wont matter anyway lol. We're only adding to ISA'a now, so our next top up will be the 6th April, assuming the trajectory is still downward.

"looks like FTSE could go even down to covid levels again"

Anything's possible in this market. Even BT's been dropping like a stone, and I don't understand where they have any significant connection to Russia, or Ukraine.