Member Info for fleccy

"Please do NOT critisize Gary Lineker."

Gary Lineker is entitled to his opinion, but it's the opinion of an ex footballer who knows nothing. He should stick to what he knows about, Football, and keep his gob shut when it comes to politics. At the very least, the media shouldn't report his opinion, since he's no more qualified to comment on such things than Tom, Dick & Harry down the pub.

Chid, your post make laugh out loud, please stop the hilarity over laughing can lead to health complications.
Try stopping paying your mortgage and see how long you're allowed to stay in your house. At best you might be able to negotiate lower monthly interest payments, but ultimately any missed or lower payments will cost you more in the long run.
In the US can you post your keys back to the bank, jingle mail, and the Bank takes ownership. In the UK you'd have to declare bankruptcy to have your loan written off and you forget that the average LTV under 42% for Lloyds mortgages. It's clear anyone struggling with their mortgage, will be incentivised to sell rather than camp out and paying nothing, thinking they'll get away with it.

"Tophat - that’s exactly why I made my sarcastic remark .Problems with banks like SVB were always going to happen & this has a knock on effect to the large regulated Banks ."

SVB is insignificant to the banking sector in general, it may be a canary in the coal mine for small banks heavily invested in high risk growth stocks, but that's more on the investment side of things. I can't see any way that SVB contagion would affect Lloyds in any way, since Lloyds is predominantly a domestic UK bank. As far as the Investment Giants, like Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, etc, they're just so big I don't see any impact on them either. This is just an indicator of how nervous the market is. Maybe we're on the cusp of a rotation from Growth to Value.

"Talking about some of the research, he has done, ‘i will not put it on the QBT board because it will upset the guys’’’.
What absolute nonsense from this person."

Take it or leave it, makes no odds to me either way, but we're all entitled to our own opinions. Only time will tell in respect of QBT's software success, I have my opinion, no doubt you have yours. Nice to know someone's watching my posts, I wondered who it was giving me recommends on the BTC chat page.

Lloyds down 4.66% on news about a US regional Bank who does business with high risk venture capital. Todays fall shows how dysfunctional the investing environment is. Lloyds a UK based domestic bank primarily doing business within the UK wont be affected by this, in fact I'd argue that none of the big US banks will either. Lets hope the current stock price drops are sustained post the 5th April, I'm itching to top up our ISA's

"We can wait, we are in no hurry. When FG is ready he will deliver ."

The halving comes in next year, so time is an issue. If QBT are successful, they will have to reach agreements with the miners on QBT's share of the Bitcoin Mining reward. If QBT do achieve their goal and prove a 30% increase in efficiency, post the next halving that efficiency reduces to 15% relative to the current mining reward. QBT will then need to negotiate a share of the extra Mined Bitcoin, as a result of their software, and QBT's share will depend on how much miners want to hand over.

Indeed.

Using Total Equity it comes to 70.95p

"as at 31st December - total equity = £47.5 Billion"

You're correct, I used the Ordinary shareholders equity listed as 41.98 Billion on the 31st December 2022, since that's what Lloyds used in their TNAV per share calculation.

Just Kidding, I was right the first time, sometimes I confuse myself.

The NAV will be around 63.3p per share, if you leave in intangibles and Goodwill.

41980 + 396 = 42,376

42376 ÷ 66944 = 0.633

The NAV will be around 63.3p per share, if you exclude intangibles and Goodwill is what I meant to say. DOH

41980 + 396 = 42,376

42376 ÷ 66944 = 0.633

The NAV will be around 63.3p per share, if you leave in intangibles and Goodwill.

41980 + 396 = 42,376

42376 ÷ 66944 = 0.633

"If the share price is LOWER than the NAV per share, then it is said to trade at a DISCOUNT, suggests a lack of demand for the shares and the company is out of favour with the market."

Obviously that doesn't apply to Lloyds, being amongst the most actively traded shares on the FTSE.

"https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/stock-market-summary/ftse-100/top-volume"

Missed out can:

It's clear that Lloyds loan book is good quality, so I think we CAN forget about a mass default as a risk for Lloyds.

"Mass Default is Lloyds problem going forward and thus reflected in the S P"

There's absolutely zero chance of that:

"Total loans and advances increased to £312.7 billion
(31 December 2021: £308.8 billion), with a small reduction in
average LTV to 41.6 per cent (31 December 2021: 42.1 per cent).
The proportion of balances with a LTV greater than 90 per
cent increased to 1.4 per cent (31 December 2021: 0.5 per cent).
The average LTV of new business decreased to 61.7 per cent
(31 December 2021: 63.3 per cent)"

https://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/assets/pdfs/investors/financial-performance/lloyds-banking-group-plc/2022/full-year/2022-lbg-annual-report.pdf

It's clear that Lloyds loan book is good quality, so I think we forget about a mass default as a risk for Lloyds.

"I love that word. Never a date, just imminent. There is a reason why some stocks are undervalued. Anything from a rubbish economy, a rubbish market, a rubbish government, a rubbish management."

By imminent, I'm thinking there'll be a move from growth to value dividend stocks this year, and money will look for undervalued stocks to invest in. I also believe the publicity around UK companies listing in the US, will put the Government under increasing pressure and they'll have to make moves to encourage UK investment. The UK has been an investment pariah for years, I think it's reached the point where the Government can't sit on their hands anymore. Of course this is just my opinion, but the signs are there.

Chid, the problem with your Permabear arguments is that they assume Lloyds will drop going into the rest of this year, which is possible, but highly unlikely in my humble opinion. What you seem to forget is that UK stocks, like Lloyds, are undervalued by any measure, and various market participants are starting to question the UK undervaluation argument. L&G CEO, Nigel Wilson, was on CNBC this morning and he went to great pains to highlight the undervaluation of UK stocks, and I've seen many other market commentators saying the same recently. It's up to you if you want to ignore the signals pointing to an imminent upward revaluation of UK stocks.

"I see Powell is having another go later on today, perhaps a toned down message from yesterday's spiel."

I don't think so. Over the last decade lots of cheap money has found its way into high risk assets, like various tech companies that'll never make a profit, and Crypto, I think the FED wants to discourage Crypto and zombie tech investments. Because of the success of the Tech Giants, money's piling into startups who'll never make a profit and these investments will eventually come back to bite, and the more money tied up in such investments the worse the bite. Even the so called smart money has thrown bucket loads of cash at risky ventures, look at the likes of Softbank, Cathy Wood, Michael Saylor, etc, etc, etc.

Read stepped down over two months ago and the news has gone quiet on his replacement. Since the announcement that Read's going, E& have increased their holding from 10% to 14% and Liberty has built a holding of 4.92%, you'd think there'd be news on the CEO replacement by now.
The RNS advising that the CEO is stepping down was on the 5th December, so I assume they've been looking for a replacement for at least 3 months and Read is only acting as an advisor until the until 31st March, so you'd expect they would have found a replacement by now. I still suspect there's something else in the pipeline, like a merger with another big player; Back in December I speculated that Verizon may be in the frame and until they announce a replacement for Read, I'll be suspicious about the events around Reads rapid departure.

"Shorting markets from here is the only play"

I agree if you're talking about US markets, especially the Nasdaq, but the UK market is clearly undervalued and has been for a long time. There are some indications that investment is rotating out of growth, into value dividend stocks, and It isn't like big money is going to make a rotation from Growth into value obvious, they'll do it in a carefully controlled way until it becomes obvious to the wider market. Of course this is purely speculative on my part, but growth may finally be losing its lustre.