Member Info for FJGooner

And yet more coverage in The Telegraph ...

Https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/06/16/return-holidays-abroad-people-fully-vaccinated/

Return of holidays abroad for people who are fully vaccinated

Double-jabbed tourists could be allowed to travel to amber list countries without quarantining under new government plans

Summer holidays abroad will be opened up for vaccinated Britons under plans being considered by the Government, The Telegraph understands.

Officials are drawing up proposals that could allow people who have had both Covid jabs to avoid having to quarantine on their return from amber list countries, although they will still have to be tested.

The change would effectively turn amber countries green for the vaccinated, opening up the possibility of quarantine-free travel to most major holiday destinations in Europe and the US.

The proposals to ease the restrictions for vaccinated people are said to be at an early stage. Matt Han****, the Health Secretary, who has fought for tough border restrictions, is said to be "open" to the change.

"They haven't definitely got there yet, but that's the direction of travel," a senior source told The Telegraph.

I'm sure that it will be 80% max for the June and July summer UK cruises. No chance of 100% for these in my opinion, as this was the basis on which they were marketed.

Thereafter, hopefully a return to the normal pax capacity of 999 from August 2nd onwards.

Further great news. The Scottish Highlands and Islands cruise aboard Spirit of Discovery departing June 27, 2021 has now also been amended to avoid Scotland and upgrade to warmer and more pleasant western and southern coastal English ports.

The amended itinerary will now see Spirit of Discovery visit the West Country and South Coast.

June 27, 2021. Tilbury. Depart 1800.
June 28. Portsmouth. Arrive 0800. Depart 1700.
June 29. Portland. Arrive 0800. Depart 1700.
June 30. Isles of Scilly*. Arrive 0800. Depart 1700.
July 1. Falmouth. Arrive 0800. Depart 1700.
July 2. Scenic cruising South Coast.
July 3. Tilbury. Arrive 0700.

Great news. The From the Northern Isles to the Fjords cruise aboard Spirit of Discovery departing July 3, 2021 has been amended to avoid Scotland and upgrade to warmer and more pleasant west coast English ports.

The amended itinerary will now see Spirit of Discovery visit the West Coast of England.

July 3, 2021. Tilbury. Depart 1800.
July 4. Portsmouth. Arrive 0800. Depart 1700.
July 5. Falmouth*. Arrive 0800. Depart 1700.
July 6. Scenic cruising North Cornwall.
July 7. Bristol. Arrive 0600. Depart 1700.
July 8. Scilly Isles*. Arrive 0800. Depart 1700.
July 9. Portland. Arrive 0800. Depart 1700.
July 10. Scenic cruising South Coast
July 11. Tilbury. Arrive 0700.

The Spirit Of Discovery is still sailing, currently just off the coast at Gravesend, steaming west at around 4 knots and looks set to re-enter Tilbury docks shortly.

It's great to see one of our superb ocean liners back out and about with just 2 weeks before passengers are set sail with Saga once more.

Love it ... if only :)

But it is currently off the Essex coast, about 50 nautical miles east of Frinton-on-sea.

The Spirit Of Discovery is at sea right now having left Tilbury 40 minutes ago (at 4:33pm). It is due to return to Tilbury at 4am tomorrow.

It is currently just south of Canvey Island and is steaming east at around 15 knots.

If you're on the Kent coast it may be worth nipping out to see if you can spot it during the next couple of hours.

The effect of the delay in adding additional countries to the green list will have a miniscule effect on the travel side of Saga.

All of Saga’s UK cruise programme is 100% unaffected and this will continue towards the end of August. With the Spirit of Discovery setting sail in just three weeks’ time I wouldn't want to risk being sat on the sidelines right now.

I fully understand someone wanting a lower buy back price to this recovery stock - I've been there, done that and have largely paid for the construction of the associated tee shirt factory. ?? But with the insurance arm of the business going well and ocean cruising about to restart, I will not be selling anytime soon.

As for the race between the virus and the vaccine, yesterday we passed two important milestones.

Firstly more than 50% of the UK population has now had two doses and is therefore already fully vaccinated. Also, it was announced that three-quarters of adults in the UK had received a first jab.

Secondly, we passed the global benchmark that 2 billion vaccine doses have been administered across 176 countries, according to Bloomberg. With the latest rate of roughly an additional 36.4 million doses a day. A fantastic global achievement.

Yes, it is annoying that Boris Johnson’s insistence on trying to continue with this trade mission to India unnecessarily opened us up to some local infections of a new variant. But case rates in hotspots like Bolton and Bedford already appear to be coming back down according to the BBC just yesterday.

As ever, no one can predict the future and things still may still take a turn for the worst. But that's not where we are now and I will not be persuaded into foolish decision making with my investments (again) by sensationalised media stories.

To those getting restless whilst the share price remains below £4.00 - just be patient.

This is a great share to own, now just 4 weeks away from Saga's ocean cruising restart, finally adding value back into a very strong positive cashflow just from the non-travel businesses over the last year.

I'd bet that dividends will restart within 2 years of cruising's resumption - mind you, by then the share price will likely be multiples of the currently very low levels.

The hugely wide spread ownership (see below) of this company know what a winner they are onto here, with all UK summer cruises already 100% sold out.

I was hoping to make the updated list below, but must have just missed out ... :)

26.31% Roger De Haan 36,855,555
5.36% Saga Plc., Employee Stock Ownership Plan 7,509,376
3.71% UBS Asset Management 5,197,333
3.16% Ignis Investment Services Limited 4,425,541
3% GWL Investment Management Ltd. 4,200,594
2.49% HBOS Investment Fund Managers Limited 3,486,745
2.21% BlackRock, Inc. 3,091,803
2.2% Pictet Asset Management Limited 3,088,270
2.06% A J Bell Holdings Limited, Asset Management Arm 2,890,274
2.01% Royal London Asset Management Limited 2,815,135
1.93% Barclays Bank PLC, Wealth and Investment Management Division 2,697,691
1.84% Standard Life Aberdeen plc 2,583,931
1.62% HSBC Global Asset Management (UK) Limited 2,271,172
1.5% Dimensional Fund Advisors L.P. 2,108,183
1.5% Legal & General Investment Management Limited 2,098,044
1.4% N.F.U. Mutual Unit Managers Limited 1,967,622
1.4% Majedie Asset Management Limited 1,962,014
1.35% Interactive Brokers Group, Inc., Asset Management Arm 1,894,218
1.08% Equiniti Group Limited, Asset Management Arm 1,516,121
1% Schroder Investment Management Limited 1,406,405
0.91% Aviva Investors Global Services Limited 1,279,142
0.84% Goldman Sachs Group, Investment Banking and Securities Investments 1,178,914
0.78% IG Group Holdings Plc, Asset Management Arm 1,090,363
0.76% The Royal Bank Of Scotland plc, Asset Management Arm 1,062,945
0.73% JPMorgan Chase & Co, Brokerage and Securities Investments 1,018,620

The latest UK and global vaccination update for those interested – a massive 862000+ vaccinations have been administered by our glorious NHS in the latest 24-hour period. Globally, nearly 30 million doses are now being given every day. An incredible achievement.

Total people in the UK that were newly vaccinated: 205,410
Total people in the UK that had newly received their second jab: 556,951
Total people in the UK vaccinated to date: 37,943,681
Total people in the UK that had received their second jab: 22,643,417

The biggest vaccination campaign in history is underway. More than 1.65 billion doses have been administered across 176 countries, according to data collected by Bloomberg. The latest rate was roughly 29.1 million doses a day.

United Kingdom Covid-19 Patients admitted to hospital (daily, total)
16-05-2021 78
15-05-2021 90
14-05-2021 94
Previously for comparison …
15-03-2021 494
14-03-2021 425
13-03-2021 460
12-03-2021 469

....

Mr Zahawi said: “Almost every day we get more and more encouraging evidence about the difference our Covid-19 vaccines are making to people’s lives.

“Today’s data is astounding and a true reflection of just how important it is to get both jabs when offered.”

It is the first time the two vaccines have been studied to see how effective they are against both the Kent and Indian variants.

Although the AstraZeneca vaccine performed less impressively, scientists who conducted the study said data may have been skewed against it because the rollout of its second dose was weeks behind Pfizer’s. Earlier research also shows AstraZeneca takes longer to reach optimum effectiveness.

Dr Jamie Lopez Bernal, lead author of the PHE research team, said the “key message” was that two doses were “highly effective” against the Indian variant and would offer “higher protection” against severe illness and hospitalisation.

Professor Susan Hopkins, PHE’s Covid-19 strategic response director, said the “trend” was “quite clear” and was heading in the “right direction”.

Responding to the data, Sir Iain told The Telegraph: “It is time for us to stop fearing all day and every day. We have to get on with our lives.

“It is time the scientists were put back in their laboratories again and told ‘leave the Government to us’.

“It is time for the British people to get back to work and to feel safe. And they won’t feel safe if every day some scientist comes up on the television to say, ‘Oh My God, we don’t know enough about this, we should stay locked down’.”

Mark Harper MP, chairman of the lockdown-sceptic Covid Recovery Group of more than 60 Tory MPs, added: “This new data, which confirms our vaccines are very effective against the B.1.617.2 variant first identified in India, means that the Government’s roadmap should proceed as planned and all domestic restrictions should end in June.

“I hope the Prime Minister will now be able to say more about this by the end of this month as he had originally planned. Early confirmation that 21 June will see the end of social distancing would be especially welcome for the hospitality industry, which can’t survive unaided if social distancing were to continue.

“Effective vaccines break the link between cases and serious disease, hospitalisation and death. They enable us to get back to living like normal again.”

Government sources said on Saturday night that any decision on June 21 was dependent on hospitalisation data due this week, to see if new infections were causing serious illness.

However, the researchers were reassured because so far there had been no signs of “increased severity in hospitalisations”.

Also discussed at length on The Andrew Marr program earlier today - it looks like all restrictions are likely to be lifted by June 21 after all - please nobody faint with surprise that last weeks batch of Sage "experts" were misleading.

From today's Telegraph:

Headline: Astounding result. Vaccines ‘highly effective’ against the Indian coronavirus variant

Britain back on course for a full reopening by June 21 after ‘astounding’ real-world data show protection offered by double dose of jabs

Https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/05/22/vaccines-highly-effective-against-indian-coronavirus-variant/

Britain’s vaccines are “highly effective” against the Indian coronavirus variant, government scientists hailed on Saturday night, putting the country back on course for a full reopening by June 21.

In a marked change in tone, Public Health England (PHE) scientists said the first real-world data showed double doses of Pfizer/BioNTech or AstraZeneca were nearly as effective against the emerging Indian strain as they were against the Kent variant.

The findings, from a study which included more than a thousand people who had contracted the Indian variant, were described as “groundbreaking” by a buoyant Matt Han****, the Health Secretary, and “astounding” by Nadhim Zahawi, the vaccines minister.

Dr Mary Ramsay, head of immunisation at PHE, urged people to get their “vital” second vaccine as soon as it was offered, saying it provided “maximum protection against all existing and emerging variants”.

Scientists found the Pfizer vaccine was 88 per cent effective against symptomatic disease from the Indian variant from two weeks after the second dose, compared to 93 per cent effective against the Kent strain.

The AstraZeneca vaccine was found to be 60 per cent effective against the Indian strain, compared to 66 per cent against the Kent variant, over the same period.

Scientists also insisted two jabs of either vaccine was expected to offer even greater protection against hospitalisation and death.

Number 10 was said on Saturday night to be “fairly confident” that June 21’s reopening was on track but cautioned that it was necessary to wait to check that hospitalisations had not gone up later this week before knowing if “we are out of the woods”.

On Saturday night, Sir Iain Duncan Smith, the former Tory leader, said the results meant “it is time the scientists were put back in their laboratories again and told ‘leave the Government to us’.”

Mr Han**** welcomed the PHE’s latest research, saying it “proves our Covid-19 vaccination programme is protecting people”.

He added: “We can now be confident that over 20 million people – more than one in three – have significant protection against this new variant, and that number is growing by the hundreds of thousands every single day as more and more people get that vital second dose.”

.... continues ....

QOTD (Question of the day) #2
How many Sage scientists does it take to change a light bulb ?

Noooo! Don't touch that bulb! The glass could literally explode killing everyone within 1000 miles (to the nearest 1970s Open University beard).

Run for the hills and ban electric lighting for the next millennium.

Agreed - one minute it's a full-blown new crisis, the next it's "Oh well, it wasn't so bad after all .. sorry." I fell for this in February, but am not going to be fooled again by the Sage scaremongers.

From The Telegraph.

----------

Indian variant may not be as dangerous as we thought, admit scientists

Https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/05/19/indian-variant-may-not-transmissible-scientists-say-cases-india/

Surge in UK infections has been linked to large, multi-generational households, and may not be because the variant is more transmissible

The Indian variant may not be as transmissible as first feared, with the recent surge in cases partly driven by the “founder effect”, scientists have said.

Fears that the mutated virus could be 40 to 50 per cent more infectious have led some experts to claim the Government should not have carried on with releasing restrictions on Monday.

Yet cases in India are declining rapidly, leading some experts to think that the variant may not be as dangerous as first thought.

Some argue that the recent spike is being driven by the founder effect, which occurs when a small number of people infect a larger number than normal, sparking a change in the dominant strain.

In Britain’s case, the effect may have been triggered by small numbers of infected people racing to return from India after the Government imposed new travel restrictions, and then passing it on to large, multi-generational households.

The effect is likely to be exacerbated by case numbers currently being so low in Britain, allowing the variant to easily take over from the Kent variant, despite no more increased transmissibility.

Prof Carl Heneghan, director of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said: “How can it be the case that it is 40 per cent more transmissible when the numbers are falling off at the speed they are in India?

Setanta finishing up their sell off perhaps?

We'll see soon enough, as when they have finished ... whoosh! :)

Icecool,

I agree. Setanta could certainly still be selling down the last tranche of their shares.

The list that Alnwick kindly posted actually goes further than shown in his post. It goes down to the lowest ownership entry of :

0.73% JPMorgan Chase & Co, Brokerage and Securities Investments

So Setanta could have any holding between zero and 0.72% in theory. That would be around 1,008,736 shares.

Either way, I'm guessing that we're within the last few weeks of their dumping, so should be nicely positioned for when we start cruising again next month.

Two naming plans are currently on the table – a virtual ceremony and “more of a real, hybrid event” – as the line waits for rules and restrictions for the summer to become clearer.

Something he can focus on with more surety is preparing Saga’s crew for their return.

Before speaking to TTG, Blanks had been on a crew training call to get ready, with 95% of Discovery’s crew due onboard by the end of May and Adventure fully crewed in June.

“We’re going to have to get that muscle memory back because the thing that we’ve always been very proud of is the service we offer.”

With enviable guest loyalty, you imagine many will be more than happy just to be onboard.

Since March 2020, the brand has retained “over 70%” of guests whose bookings had to be cancelled due to Covid. And in the most recent round of rebookings, what Blanks describes as “probably the most difficult ones”, almost 85% of customers booked for Spain retained their holiday, opting for UK sailings.

SUMMER PREDICTIONS

But when might clients be able to journey beyond British shores? Blanks predicts international cruising’s return later this summer, once further clarity is given on overseas travel.

“I think the signs are positive, [but] the beauty of a cruise ship is it’s a floating hotel. We can take the ship to wherever we need to go, wherever is open [and] we can avoid the places closed or that don’t want ships.

“Our first international cruises are not until August and, as I sit here now, I’m confident we’ll be able to operate those.” Looking even further ahead for Saga, with its second ocean vessel readying to sail – could yet more expansion be in the works post-pandemic?

Blanks says the line will use 2022 as a “proof of concept” year after its new-build ocean project, to prove to its board the buoyancy of the cruise industry.

The signs are good. With its British Isles programme for this summer sold out, Blanks says Saga’s 2022 capacity is already more than 40% sold.

“At the end of the day, in my mind, three ocean ships is a fleet and I’d like to be captain of the fleet one day,” he smiles. “My aspiration is to have at least another one [ship].”

“For now, we have to fill the ships, keep guests happy and coming back and show we can be the best British cruise line – that’s what we want to be.”

If his winning over Westminster officials is anything to go by, Blanks’ fleet dreams may soon become a reality.

Https://www.ttgmedia.com/news/saga-cruises-chief-weve-been-leading-the-way-28533

SAGA CRUISES CHIEF: 'WE'VE BEEN LEADING THE WAY'

From focusing government minds during an onboard "summit", to setting the course for Covid vaccination policies, Saga Cruises chief executive Nigel Blanks tells TTG about the line’s innovations and why cruise can be such an agile sector.

The importance of winning over the new-to-cruise market in securing the industry’s future is no secret to those familiar with the sector.

Last July Saga volunteered its ship, Spirit of Discovery, to host a crucial summit, bringing together first-time cruisers of a different kind – Department for Transport, Foreign Office and Public Health England representatives – to meet with cruise leaders.

“You’d be surprised how many people who attended had never been on a cruise ship,” recalls Saga Cruises chief executive Nigel Blanks. “That was a bit of an eye-opener for me because those people [in government] look after the industry, but they’d never been onboard before.”

Using its new flagship, Saga was able to “wow” the governmental delegation with its onboard experience and – most importantly – the line and the industry’s strict stance on safety.

Blanks believes the gathering was “the catalyst” for helping build trust and confidence, and played its part in this month’s long-awaited resumption of domestic sailings.

“It helped focus their minds and got the wheels in motion,” he explains proudly. “It’s really important the industry is properly understood… I think we’ve turned the tide [within government].”

CHARTING A COURSE

Saga’s approach to the restart of ocean cruising has arguably led the industry in recent months.

In January, its new requirement for passengers to be fully vaccinated became an almost universal approach.

“Nobody [in government] asked for it, we volunteered because we felt it was the right way to protect guests and the crew,” says Blanks, describing how 98% of Saga guests surveyed “resoundingly wanted us to do it”.

A previous accolade – becoming the first in the industry to achieve a Shield+ accreditation from maritime safety expert Lloyd’s Register – had strengthened the line’s Covid-secure credentials.

As Blanks puts it with a modest grin: “Little old Saga has been leading the way.”

“I think we’ve proven to people that we can create a super-safe environment and the protocols we have in place have helped us to do that – we’re in a strong place.”

BRITISH FOCUS

This approach bodes well for the line’s return to service later this summer, with Saga set for a series of round-UK itineraries starting in June, all of which have now sold out.

Among its voyages is the maiden sailing of Spirit of Adventure. With its arrival delayed by Covid (Saga actually took delivery of the vessel last September), Blanks is clearly filled with excitement at the prospect of “a second chance” to launch.

Horse,

You mentioned: "l’m unsure the percentage of travel staff who worked from home pre pandemic but l’d bet moving forward there will be significantly less staff in expensive buildings."

We had almost no staff working from home pre-pandemic - literally a handful.

The new model is now completely the opposite so the cost savings will be enormous as we move forward. Only Enbrook is being retained with all other buildings released to market and FM costs zeroised.

That sounds spot on. :)