Member Info for FJGooner

As I'm not currently a holder, I'll go for £2.78. :)

Hi Roxbury,

I hope that you have had a great Easter.

Roxbury, this is my take on a couple of points, hopefully for clarity:

Re: "Ok so everyone reading this knows (or should do) that there is no such thing as a “Market Maker” anymore."

That is I'm afraid utterly incorrect. There are 2 sub-markets within core LSE SETS where MMs operate - and in the lesser liquid stocks in the minor markets such as AIM, MMs still set the primary bid-offer spread prices against agreed NMS. MMs are not all algorithmically driven - at the lower ends of the markets some are not far removed from the more turf variant of accountant, if you get my drift. :)

Re: "now the reverse will happen making them more money when they take it back to £4."

With a disclaimer that of course I wish to buy my Saga shares cheaper than £2.60 (in a company that I trust and respect to bounce back strongly next year) , I really think that the direction of travel for later today - and the few weeks ahead before international travel ex UK is clarified - will be sharply lower.

For those that can hold for the long term, this is not an issue at all.

But Roxbury, who I fully respect, I think that by 4:30 this afternoon, I fear rather than a boom up towards the £4 you're more likely to see a drop towards 320p or even below on Boris's update today that was expected to deliver clarity on international travel ex UK but did the opposite.

Things will turn around for this excellent company that I admire - but negativity in the very short term is likely to drag the SP.

But on the plus side, I'm getting everything wrong recently, so...

Unless you're a French fisherman of course!

In which case, what is mine is "mien" and what is yours is "mien aussi".

Well worth a read about the general cruise market - all very positive for the future - and also briefly mentions Saga.

https://www.ft.com/content/099288fd-90e9-427b-85be-1527d0acf642

Nick Stace, chief executive of Saga’s travel business, says a survey showed 97 per cent of customers supported the idea that all passengers should be vaccinated. “I almost didn’t believe it to begin with because it felt like a Soviet-era poll,” he says. “[Vaccinations] really give the green light for cruise to restart.”

---------

And, no, I haven't bought back in yet - still awaiting the Global Travel Taskforce report on the 12th April. :)

Have a great weekend all.

So does this mean that Saga will be sailing only UK cruises until September - from June 27th on Spirit of Discovery and July 26th on Spirit of Adventure?

Hi Banbury,

Many thanks, but I really am in no rush whatsoever to re-buy for the reasons I suggested yesterday.

I'll take a good look at the Global Travel Taskforce report on 12th April and take it from there.

Unless, of course, the share price retraces to well below the level that was in effect before the previous boost from travel optimism that now seems to have been well and truly set aside by the market.

Whatever happens, we have the joy of glorious springtime and longer, brighter evenings to look forward to in the weeks ahead. :)

JoeNinety & Beachbum1978,

Many thanks for the kind words. However, I’m in no rush to jump back in just yet.

Like I posted on Saturday, although I'm still looking for a re-entry to this stock, I continue to err on the side of caution pending the publication of the government’s international travel taskforce report on the 12th April.

I was hoping for some more feedback from others on this BB on that subject, but it seems that events have overtaken us. Many thanks to JoeSoap for your comments on this.

The taskforce’s report will be used to help the government determine when and how to resume safe international travel, as they say, no earlier than 17 May 2021.

So for me, now as a potential rather than an already committed investor to a travel-related stock, the main questions are:

1. Will any travel be permitted from 17th May?

2. If so, what outgoing restrictions will apply? Will all EU countries be open or just a handful via variable traffic light corridors? What non-EU countries will be accessible via such corridors?

3. Given the list of available territories, how good a fit will this be for Saga’s cruise operation? Will Saga’s river cruising program be able to go ahead in Europe later this year? What is the impact for all of Saga’s other travel products such as Escorted Tours?

4. What incoming restrictions, if any, may apply? Will return from some territories require self-isolation at home for several days? Will return from some territories require managed quarantine at a hotel? Hopefully neither of these will apply to any territory Saga intend to visit for obvious reasons.

5. What vaccination or testing requirements for travel will be implemented? Will vaccine passports be made available?

I held Saga stock for a long time before my ill-judged temporary set-aside last month pending Boris’s roadmap. When re-invested, the position taken will remain for another long period, so I am more than happy to see how current Euro-centric events unfold and to have full sight of the taskforce’s report before committing funds.

There was an article published on the BBC website this morning entitled "Covid: Summer holidays abroad 'unlikely', warns government adviser".

Https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56467813

Given the current news flow and the opinions expressed above, what are all of your views on the recommendations likely to be included in the April 12th report? All views are most welcome.

I'm still looking for a re-entry to this stock but am erring on the side of caution pending the publication of that report or reasonable analysis of its likely composition.

A reminder on the report's metrics from www.gov.uk:

The taskforce will provide a report to the Prime Minister on 12 April, which will be used to help government determine when and how to resume safe international travel no earlier than 17 May 2021.

The decision on when international travel can resume will be dependent on:

* the global and domestic epidemiological picture
* the prevalence and location of any ‘variants of concern’
* the progress of vaccine rollouts here and abroad
* what more the government has learned about the efficacy of vaccines on variants, and the impact on transmission, hospitalisation and deaths

The latest UK and global vaccination update for those interested - Special Edition.

Total people in the UK that were newly vaccinated: 528,260 (including me)
Total people in the UK that had newly received their second jab: 132,016
Total people in the UK vaccinated to date: 26,263,732
Total people in the UK that had received their second jab: 2,011,070

The biggest vaccination campaign in history is underway. More than 413 million doses have been administered across 132 countries, according to data collected by Bloomberg. The latest rate was roughly 9.94 million doses a day.

United Kingdom Covid-19 Patients admitted to hospital (daily, total)
15-03-2021 494 452,762
14-03-2021 425 452,268
13-03-2021 460 451,843
12-03-2021 469 451,383
11-03-2021 542 450,914
10-03-2021 566 450,372
09-03-2021 579 449,806

I couldn't agree more - and these actually people get paid!

Following this disposal, my notes (please see below) indicate that there should be no more than 4 similar sized disposals from Setanta and that there have been 3 such disposals so far this year.

Therefore, this overhang could be cleared by the summer.

Issue of equity: 140,102,227

Setanta positions

Position of previous notification before 01/02/2021: 6.951% 9,738,506

Resulting situation on 01/02/2021 (notified 03/02/2021): 5.9923958% 8,395,480
Share sells notified: 1,343,026
Further lots to go: 6.25

Resulting situation on 03/02/2021 (notified 05/02/2021): 4.9586699% 6,947,207
Share sells notified: 1,448,273
Further lots to go: 4.80

Resulting situation on 11/03/2021 (notified 15/03/2021): 3.9263080% 5,500,845
Share sells notified: 1,446,362
Further lots to go: 3.80

Banbury,

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Saga first bought or part-bought the building in 1986 as you suggest.

I moved into that building in 1986 from our previous headquarters at the old Enbrook mansion.

If I recall correctly, we initially occupied all but one floor in 1986. The ground floor was used at first as a bar to replace our old social club on Sandgate seafront.

I really have no idea what sums may have been paid at that time and as you say the 2013 sales appear to be, ahem, inter-company.

Great savings on rates, car parking and FM going forward as you highlight - good work.

Banbury,

I'd agree on a 300k value of 2 bed premium level flats in the area, based on standard 2 bed flats going for 150K to 200K.

However, I couldn't ever predict how many flats would be achievable in that block and what likely overall value would be achieved in a sale.

I certainly don't recall ever discussing "a land value to Saga of circa £20m". That seems outrageously high and I don't want to be associated with such an exaggerated valuation. Maybe it was the poster who was a builder that put that value in your mind.

According to the link below, this building was purchased for £3.75 million on 15 January 2013.

For clarification, this is what I posted at the time:

"In total, 3 major offices (Middelburg, Cheriton Parc & the Thanet Contact Centre) have been retired and put up for sale. I read recently, but can't confirm, that the collective price that these buildings "changed hands" for between 2008 and 2013 was around £14.8 million. Today's values - higher or lower - who knows?"

Back in January, I also posted this link that described Saga's acquisition of these properties which may be worth reading for those interested:

Https://shepwayvox.org/2020/12/24/the-great-saga-sell-off/

I hope that helps put things in a more realistic perspective.

The latest UK and global vaccination update for those interested.

Total people in the UK that were newly vaccinated: 164,143
Total people in the UK that had newly received their second jab: 20,241
Total people in the UK vaccinated to date: 22,377,255
Total people in the UK that had received their second jab: 1,142,643

More than 312 million doses in 116 countries have been administered, according to data collected by Bloomberg. The latest rate was roughly 8.08 million doses a day, on average.

United Kingdom Covid-19 Patients admitted to hospital (daily, total)
04-03-2021 688 446,795
03-03-2021 707 446,107
02-03-2021 826 445,400
01-03-2021 816 444,574
28-02-2021 769 443,758
27-02-2021 743 442,989
26-02-2021 867 442,246
25-02-2021 972 441,379

I'd guess that they'd run at 80% capacity initially. The website still reads: "For these cruises, we have reduced both our ships’ guest capacity by a fifth, to a maximum of 800 guests per ship."

One question springs to mind though - Saga say that they "will commence our cruising programme from June 27th with Spirit of Discovery, and the inaugural cruise of Spirit of Adventure will now take place on July 26th."

I don't understand why they don't get both ships underway in late June - surely that would save on one further month of costs for Spirit of Adventure being laid up in Tilbury until late July.

Any ideas?

With new advisory:

Update March 5, 2021
A message to all guests booked on cruises aboard Spirit of Discovery in June 2021, and cruises aboard Spirit of Adventure from May 2021 to July 2021.

I hope that you have continued to keep safe and well since I last wrote to you in January and that you have started to receive your COVID-19 vaccinations.

The Government’s recent announcement of the roadmap out of lockdown and the timelines contained within it have enabled us to further review our plans to return to service.

As you will know, we had planned our first cruise in May with Spirit of Adventure’s inaugural sailing and June for Spirit of Discovery. Whilst the Government’s announcement indicated that the earliest date international travel could restart was May 17th, it is unclear exactly what this means for the cruising industry. What is clear is that after June 21st social distancing rules will be relaxed, which will in turn allow us to offer an onboard experience as close as possible to what you would have previously experienced.

With this in mind, having carefully considered our options, we have taken the decision to delay our return to service once more and will commence our cruising programme from June 27th with Spirit of Discovery, and the inaugural cruise of Spirit of Adventure will now take place on July 26th.

Seagull101,

Oh no. I'm really sorry to hear that. I don't know what to say really, but you have my utmost sympathy. Most of us have been there a few times and have later re-entered the fray with better luck.

I wish you well for the future.

The Nasdaq really is entering dangerous territory. The problem is that when it goes down the pan for being massively over-priced and as investors rotate away to other instruments, it will take down the S&P and wider markets with it. And as usual, Euro & UK indices tank in sympathy.

All very frustrating.

The latest UK and global vaccination update for those interested.

Total people in the UK that were newly vaccinated: 278,956
Total people in the UK that had newly received their second jab: 68,450
Total people in the UK vaccinated to date: 20,982,571
Total people in the UK that had received their second jab: 963,862

More than 273 million doses in 108 countries have been administered, according to data collected by Bloomberg. The latest rate was roughly 6.39 million doses a day, on average.

United Kingdom Covid-19 Patients admitted to hospital (daily, total)
28-02-2021 757 443,701
27-02-2021 728 442,944
26-02-2021 853 442,216
25-02-2021 965 441,363
24-02-2021 1,018 440,398
23-02-2021 1,114 439,380
22-02-2021 1,122 438,266
21-02-2021 1,151 437,144

"@FJGooner did say I waffle and bluster"

Eh? I think that you're confusing me with another poster.

But not a problem - it's always good to read your posts on Saga.

I also did not suggest a start in May for cruises - I'd rate that a 0% chance of happening.

But I'd fully agree with your suggestion that "Saga will re-engineer their summer cruising programme to less contentious destinations".

Just this afternoon, P&O confirmed that they have cancelled more than 90 planned cruises, some until the end of August and others until the end of September.

They now plan to run some "staycation" sailings around UK coastal waters instead.

Covid: P&O Cruises extends halt to international voyages
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-56263813