Member Info for FJGooner

Well that budget didn't include any targeted help whatsoever for the travel sector - the very sector that the government has put into hibernation. Very disappointing.

So I'd guess that the sector will now look forward to April 12th when the travel task force reports back to the government with their recommendations on whether travel will be permitted to restart as indicated as earliest from May 17th and with what constraints.

Seagull101,

I doubt that it'll help, but I have no position here either having "temporarily" retired my positions sub-300p pending Boris's roadmap.

So I know how you feel, but it's still great to see the others here doing so well.

Just do the opposite to me and you'll be fine ...

... I'll keep you updated.

Damn - mis-timed it.

Well done to all holders. :)

Slownsteady,

It is the cumulative number of COVID-19 patients admitted to hospital since records started last winter.

It's far less relevant than the daily figure that we, as a society, want to see drop down to very low numbers in the weeks ahead. This is currently going in the right direction with the latest daily figure dropping to around 1100 and may that drop long continue.

For reference, this seems to have been the peak:
12-01-2021 4,576 336,096

The latest UK and global vaccination update for those that are interested.

Total people in the UK that were newly vaccinated: 203,168
Total people in the UK that had newly received their second jab: 28,282
Total people in the UK vaccinated to date: 20,478,619
Total people in the UK that had received their second jab: 844,098

More than 245 million doses in 107 countries have been administered, according to data collected by Bloomberg. The latest rate was roughly 6.79 million doses a day, on average.

United Kingdom Covid-19 Patients admitted to hospital (daily, total)
23-02-2021 1,112 439,352
22-02-2021 1,118 438,240
21-02-2021 1,148 437,122
20-02-2021 1,080 435,974
19-02-2021 1,265 434,894
18-02-2021 1,332 433,629
17-02-2021 1,405 432,297
16-02-2021 1,494 430,892

I fully expect that within 5 years the EU will only contain the following states:

France.

If it helps, I was having this discussion with Roxbury a few days back when he misinterpreted a promotional web page that was highlighting 4 of this year's departures as "British Isles cruises".

But absolutely nothing had changed with Saga's cruise plans. The 4 cruises marketed on the page mentioned were:

Treasures of the British Isles - 20th May 2021
Romantic Ireland - 17th June 2021
A Taste of the British Isles - 2nd August 2021
Celtic Escape - 24th September 2021

... and were already part of the 2 ship's cruise calendars - see below. Most cruises are still destined for non-UK itineraries, including Spirit of Adventure's Inaugural Cruise.

Spirit of Discovery

June 17, 2021 Romantic Ireland *** one of the British Isles cruises ***
June 25, 2021 Authentic Spain and Beyond
July 13, 2021 Brittany and Guernsey in Bloom
July 18, 2021 Wonders of the Western Mediterranean
August 2, 2021 A Taste of the British Isles *** one of the British Isles cruises ***
August 15, 2021 Italian Charms
September 2, 2021 Coastlines of Croatia
September 24, 2021 Celtic Escape *** one of the British Isles cruises ***

Spirit of Adventure

May 4, 2021 Spirit of Adventure's Inaugural Cruise
May 20, 2021 Treasures of the British Isles *** one of the British Isles cruises ***
June 3, 2021 Majestic Norway
June 10, 2021 North Cape Explorer
June 26, 2021 Fjordland Focus
July 3, 2021 Inspirational Iceland
July 19, 2021 Baltic Symphony
August 3, 2021 Idyllic Norway
August 10, 2021 Greenland and the Midnight Sun
August 29, 2021 Postcards from the Baltic

If you'd like to see The Rhodesia Hotel, featured in that article, fly ...

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CeoLWHu6ZbQ&feature=youtu.be

The latest UK and global vaccination update for those interested.

Total people in the UK that were newly vaccinated: 407,503
Total people in the UK that had newly received their second jab: 27,322
Total people in the UK vaccinated to date: 20,089,551
Total people in the UK that had received their second jab: 796,132

More than 241 million doses in 103 countries have been administered, according to data collected by Bloomberg. The latest rate was roughly 6.73 million doses a day, on average.

United Kingdom Covid-19 Patients admitted to hospital (daily, total)
23-02-2021 1,112 439,352
22-02-2021 1,118 438,240
21-02-2021 1,148 437,122
20-02-2021 1,080 435,974
19-02-2021 1,265 434,894
18-02-2021 1,332 433,629
17-02-2021 1,405 432,297
16-02-2021 1,494 430,892

Okay. £3.796.

That should be safe. :)

Lol. I'm quite sure that you're right.

I assume that the only acceptable predictions are those way higher than today to avoid that accusation.

Okay. I'll go for £50. Then £200 by Easter.

Better?

Assuming the US markets continue their wobbles, I'll predict 325p.

Some positive and some negative themes in this article - worth a read.

When Will Cruising Restart in the UK?

https://www.cruisecritic.co.uk/news/5914/

I have to say that it really is quite heartwarming to hear these good stories for once. Great stuff and well done to all.

One small word of caution for tomorrow though (and hopefully no more than that), the US markets have just closed a really negative session - with the Nasdaq down 3.5% and the S&P down 2.45%.

I've always hated the way that when the US markets fly higher, our markets grudgingly inch up a tiny bit (probably in an embarrassed manner, apologising abjectly a la Hugh Grant) but when they drop we follow them enthusiastically through the floor.

I've never understood that.

The latest UK and global vaccination update for those interested.

Total people in the UK that were newly vaccinated: 448,962
Total people in the UK vaccinated to date: 18,691,835
Total people in the UK that had received their second jab: 700,718

More than 218 million doses in 99 countries have been administered, according to data collected by Bloomberg. The latest rate was roughly 6.15 million doses a day, on average.

United Kingdom Covid-19 Patients admitted to hospital (daily, total)
21-02-2021 1,142 437,075
20-02-2021 1,078 435,933
19-02-2021 1,261 434,855
18-02-2021 1,328 433,594
17-02-2021 1,397 432,213
16-02-2021 1,492 430,807
15-02-2021 1,491 429,315

Good morning Slownsteady,

I don't mind sharing that information with you - I always believe that (on a good BB like this) transparency is a pre-requisite for credibility.

As you probably know, I had held Saga for a long time. Sadly, I was obviously watching news flow far too obsessively and started to get spooked by the relentless Covid-related scare stories hitting the headlines.

I reduced some of my holding when the news was full of stories about surge testing for the South African and other Covid-19 variants around 3rd Feb. I think I cleared my SIPP out at around £2.74.

Stupidly, I actually paid credible attention to the words issuing from from the mouth's of government ministers on aspects that could affect Saga's travel operations return to activity. The PM was repeatedly making very cautious sounds. The minister responsible for the vaccination program explicitly stated that vaccine passports would not be supported. Grant Shapps, the transport secretary, said that people should not book holidays internationally or domestically for the summer.

So I decided that I would sell my remaining Saga shares with the intention of buying back the whole original amount - whatever the prevailing price (and with no explicit intention to scalp a small profit in the process, although that would have been a welcome bonus) once we received clarification from Boris on his roadmap.

So I sold the remaining bulk of my shares just below 300p.

I was watching the news flow carefully on Monday around 4pm, trying to garner the clarification on travel issues going forward. By the time I was reasonably happy with the prospects, the market had closed.

The next day the share price shot up very quickly before I could re-establish my holdings, so I thought I'd wait until the froth died down the next day. Well, that didn't work out, did it? :)

So now I'm stuck in the position of being out of the share that I value the most due to my lifetime association with this company.

I'm pretty sure that this sorry tale gains me admission (as I had suspected at the time) to the Losers Hall Of Fame that we were discussing here a couple of weeks ago.

These markets will afford many opportunities in the months ahead, so I'm content to be in cash for the time being.

I wish you good luck for your holdings in Saga and elsewhere.

RoxburyHouse,

Re your assertion: "... others trading a small part of their holding and just recently some are going for broke gambling their complete holding (FJG,Bigbadds)."

Thank you so much for your kind and sympathetic interpretation - very nice.

I wish you commensurate good fortune in all of your future portfolio management decisions.

Banbury,

First of all, congratulations in staying fully invested in Saga and reaping the reward.

I'd say that it's now simply the normal question of balancing further risk against potential further reward.

Boris's roadmap had "earliest" dates for each of the next four steps. The risk is clearly that at any given point, if Covid or vaccination data do not progress as expected, that these start slipping. I sincerely hope that they don't as I want my local pub to open in time for my birthday.

Step Three is of course the key one that includes "International leisure travel will resume no earlier than 17 May". The upside of this is that it has encouraged a flood of booking interest. The downside is that there will be no guarantees that any such departures will actually occur until the governmental review sometime in April.

If that hurdle is successfully cleared, then there's the wait on cruising itself getting a green light. I've seen no timetabling as yet for this.

And finally, there's the issue of which territories that UK cruises will be allowed to sail to as per travel corridor agreements with the third party countries.

As for the effect of the proposed refinancing, that could go either way I guess based upon how it's structured.

From my recent experience, trying to asses the likely moves made by this government is pointless. Vaccine passports were absolutely ruled out, now they're strongly back on the agenda. Booking a summer holiday was strongly advised against by the Transport Minister - days later we get a potential free-for-all date in June.

They seem to change their position so many times that a random number generator would be as useful for forward guidance.

The good news is that you've got a 45% buffer built in with the share price rise from 3 weeks ago of £2.50, so to some extent you're now on a rather pleasant no-lose gamble.

Good luck to you and let's get those pubs open in May.