The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Roguemale1,
If it helps, I read this article this morning in The Telegraph.
The seven destinations likely to feature on the holiday 'green list' this summer
The 'traffic light system' has been confirmed for our summer holidays – which countries will get the go-ahead?
HTTps://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/advice/green-list-countries-which-red-amber-holiday-traffic-light-system-travel/
The Government has, as yet, given no clear indication as to which countries will be green, amber or red, but Telegraph Travel has crunched the numbers to assess which destinations look highly likely to get the go-ahead for a the green list.
Basically, they are saying the 7 countries may be:
Israel
Gibraltar
Madeira
The Caribbean
Iceland
Malta
USA
Hi Gordon,
Re your: " It’s really sad you sold your holding before 22Feb, but it’s your choice and too early to say you’re wrong."
Not really - I was definitely wrong to sell in February - that's already been 100% proven by the price rising at one point over 100p above the price at which I sold.
I wish you well with your investment with Saga - it is a great business model and now, with RDH back at the helm, it is or will shortly be a great company again once more.
You can't go wrong here long term.
Icecool,
Sadly that's not correct.
The government stated that the traffic light system is to be reviewed a further three times - by June 28, July 1 and October 1.
Annoyingly, this scenario looks set to drag on for some time - see the latest government statement:
HTTPS://www.gov.uk/government/news/global-travel-taskforce-sets-out-framework-to-safely-reopen-international-travel
"While the watchlist will warn travellers of potential changes in advance, the government will not hesitate to act immediately should the data show that countries risk ratings have changed.
The allocation of countries will be kept under review and respond to emerging evidence, with a particular focus on variants of concern.
Restrictions will be formally reviewed on 28 June 2021 to take account of the domestic and international health picture, and to see whether current measures could be rolled back. Further formal reviews will take place at checkpoints no later than 31 July and 1 October 2021."
What about all of the tours that have been contracted for? And river cruises? And resort stays? In territories not given the green light? All of these were originally slated for restart in March/April, then May 17th, now who knows when?
Has anyone got costings on revenue lost in these categories whilst the government fiddles about?
Saga staff will be having to contact each customer affected and try to re-arrange departures or offer refunds.
I'm still very positive on Saga for the future, but it's best not to forget the reality of all of these moving milestones for allowable travel. It's not just ocean cruising that is affected for Saga.
Roxbury,
I was working at Saga in 1985 and although Sidney had retired the year earlier, that was very much his ethos - no pulling the wool over a customer's eyes, acknowledging errors in a frank manner and resolving properly.
It was an ethos that stayed with all of us for the next 20 years at least.
Sadly, it was cleansed away by the last poisonous shower of money-chasing dimwits that lead the company down the wrong path. This was one of the reasons that I decided to leave the company a couple of years back - it really didn't feel like Saga any more to me.
I hope - and trust - that with RDH's influence, that ethos has been or will be re-embedded.
Roxbury,
I'm going to leave it until at least after Boris's update next Monday when the Travel Taskforce reports. It's anyone's guess whether or not Boris will be delaying international travel further back than May 17th.
In any case, the market has been behaving completely irrationally of late so any negative news next week may not have the expected affect. The only thing that we can seem to rely upon with this stock these days is volatility.
As an impartial observer, I have to say that I thought the results were actually quite good. I especially liked Roger's commentary - I always did and still do trust Roger De Haan.
Congratulations on winning the price prediction game today.
Hi Roxbury,
I hope that you have had a great Easter.
Roxbury, this is my take on a couple of points, hopefully for clarity:
Re: "Ok so everyone reading this knows (or should do) that there is no such thing as a “Market Maker” anymore."
That is I'm afraid utterly incorrect. There are 2 sub-markets within core LSE SETS where MMs operate - and in the lesser liquid stocks in the minor markets such as AIM, MMs still set the primary bid-offer spread prices against agreed NMS. MMs are not all algorithmically driven - at the lower ends of the markets some are not far removed from the more turf variant of accountant, if you get my drift. :)
Re: "now the reverse will happen making them more money when they take it back to £4."
With a disclaimer that of course I wish to buy my Saga shares cheaper than £2.60 (in a company that I trust and respect to bounce back strongly next year) , I really think that the direction of travel for later today - and the few weeks ahead before international travel ex UK is clarified - will be sharply lower.
For those that can hold for the long term, this is not an issue at all.
But Roxbury, who I fully respect, I think that by 4:30 this afternoon, I fear rather than a boom up towards the £4 you're more likely to see a drop towards 320p or even below on Boris's update today that was expected to deliver clarity on international travel ex UK but did the opposite.
Things will turn around for this excellent company that I admire - but negativity in the very short term is likely to drag the SP.
But on the plus side, I'm getting everything wrong recently, so...
Well worth a read about the general cruise market - all very positive for the future - and also briefly mentions Saga.
https://www.ft.com/content/099288fd-90e9-427b-85be-1527d0acf642
Nick Stace, chief executive of Saga’s travel business, says a survey showed 97 per cent of customers supported the idea that all passengers should be vaccinated. “I almost didn’t believe it to begin with because it felt like a Soviet-era poll,” he says. “[Vaccinations] really give the green light for cruise to restart.”
---------
And, no, I haven't bought back in yet - still awaiting the Global Travel Taskforce report on the 12th April. :)
Have a great weekend all.
Hi Banbury,
Many thanks, but I really am in no rush whatsoever to re-buy for the reasons I suggested yesterday.
I'll take a good look at the Global Travel Taskforce report on 12th April and take it from there.
Unless, of course, the share price retraces to well below the level that was in effect before the previous boost from travel optimism that now seems to have been well and truly set aside by the market.
Whatever happens, we have the joy of glorious springtime and longer, brighter evenings to look forward to in the weeks ahead. :)
JoeNinety & Beachbum1978,
Many thanks for the kind words. However, I’m in no rush to jump back in just yet.
Like I posted on Saturday, although I'm still looking for a re-entry to this stock, I continue to err on the side of caution pending the publication of the government’s international travel taskforce report on the 12th April.
I was hoping for some more feedback from others on this BB on that subject, but it seems that events have overtaken us. Many thanks to JoeSoap for your comments on this.
The taskforce’s report will be used to help the government determine when and how to resume safe international travel, as they say, no earlier than 17 May 2021.
So for me, now as a potential rather than an already committed investor to a travel-related stock, the main questions are:
1. Will any travel be permitted from 17th May?
2. If so, what outgoing restrictions will apply? Will all EU countries be open or just a handful via variable traffic light corridors? What non-EU countries will be accessible via such corridors?
3. Given the list of available territories, how good a fit will this be for Saga’s cruise operation? Will Saga’s river cruising program be able to go ahead in Europe later this year? What is the impact for all of Saga’s other travel products such as Escorted Tours?
4. What incoming restrictions, if any, may apply? Will return from some territories require self-isolation at home for several days? Will return from some territories require managed quarantine at a hotel? Hopefully neither of these will apply to any territory Saga intend to visit for obvious reasons.
5. What vaccination or testing requirements for travel will be implemented? Will vaccine passports be made available?
I held Saga stock for a long time before my ill-judged temporary set-aside last month pending Boris’s roadmap. When re-invested, the position taken will remain for another long period, so I am more than happy to see how current Euro-centric events unfold and to have full sight of the taskforce’s report before committing funds.
There was an article published on the BBC website this morning entitled "Covid: Summer holidays abroad 'unlikely', warns government adviser".
Https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56467813
Given the current news flow and the opinions expressed above, what are all of your views on the recommendations likely to be included in the April 12th report? All views are most welcome.
I'm still looking for a re-entry to this stock but am erring on the side of caution pending the publication of that report or reasonable analysis of its likely composition.
A reminder on the report's metrics from www.gov.uk:
The taskforce will provide a report to the Prime Minister on 12 April, which will be used to help government determine when and how to resume safe international travel no earlier than 17 May 2021.
The decision on when international travel can resume will be dependent on:
* the global and domestic epidemiological picture
* the prevalence and location of any ‘variants of concern’
* the progress of vaccine rollouts here and abroad
* what more the government has learned about the efficacy of vaccines on variants, and the impact on transmission, hospitalisation and deaths
The latest UK and global vaccination update for those interested - Special Edition.
Total people in the UK that were newly vaccinated: 528,260 (including me)
Total people in the UK that had newly received their second jab: 132,016
Total people in the UK vaccinated to date: 26,263,732
Total people in the UK that had received their second jab: 2,011,070
The biggest vaccination campaign in history is underway. More than 413 million doses have been administered across 132 countries, according to data collected by Bloomberg. The latest rate was roughly 9.94 million doses a day.
United Kingdom Covid-19 Patients admitted to hospital (daily, total)
15-03-2021 494 452,762
14-03-2021 425 452,268
13-03-2021 460 451,843
12-03-2021 469 451,383
11-03-2021 542 450,914
10-03-2021 566 450,372
09-03-2021 579 449,806