Member Info for FJGooner

What - no oil price update from caitlin1? How strange? Let's have a little peek for ourselves, shall we? Oh. $34.59 +5.72% Wonder why caitlin1 forgot today's update?

I note that you appear every time that there's a drop in spot prices for Crude, spouting your "bloodbath tomorrow" routine. Strange that you don't appear with your hourly updates at all when spot prices for Crude are strongly gaining. Can anyone guess why?

Voted YES to the deal as an RDSB long-term income investor (rather than a day-trader) who believes that assembling a huge market position in LNG over the years ahead will be the key to Shell building positive cash flow ever higher. LNG-based energy policies in the UK are representative of wider moves to bridge the gap between decommissioning dirty coal-fired electrical generation and immature green / unwelcome nuclear alternatives.

The number of US rigs in production continues to fall - now less than a third compared to just over a year ago: U.S. Baker Hughes Rig Count Jan 22, 2016 18:00 510 515 Jan 15, 2016 18:00 515 516 Jan 08, 2016 18:00 516 536 Dec 31, 2015 18:00 536 538 Dec 23, 2015 18:00 538 541 Dec 18, 2015 18:00 541 524 Dec 11, 2015 18:00 524 545 Dec 04, 2015 18:00 545 555 Nov 25, 2015 18:00 555 564 Nov 20, 2015 18:00 564 574 Nov 13, 2015 18:00 574 572 Nov 06, 2015 18:00 572 578 Oct 30, 2015 17:30 578 594 Oct 23, 2015 17:30 594 595 Oct 16, 2015 17:30 595 605 Oct 09, 2015 17:00 605 614 Oct 02, 2015 17:00 614 641 Sep 25, 2015 17:00 641 644 Sep 18, 2015 17:00 644 652 Sep 11, 2015 17:00 652 662 Sep 04, 2015 17:00 662 675 Aug 28, 2015 17:00 675 674 Aug 21, 2015 17:00 674 672 Aug 14, 2015 17:00 672 670 Aug 07, 2015 17:00 670 664 Jul 31, 2015 17:00 664 659 Jul 24, 2015 17:00 659 638 Jul 17, 2015 17:00 638 645 Jul 10, 2015 17:00 645 640 Jul 02, 2015 17:00 640 628 Jun 26, 2015 17:00 628 631 Jun 19, 2015 17:00 631 635 Jun 12, 2015 17:00 635 642 Jun 05, 2015 17:00 642 646 May 29, 2015 17:00 646 659 May 22, 2015 17:00 659 660 May 15, 2015 17:00 660 668 May 08, 2015 17:00 668 679 May 01, 2015 17:00 679 703 Apr 24, 2015 17:00 703 734 Apr 17, 2015 17:00 734 760 Apr 10, 2015 17:00 760 802 Apr 02, 2015 17:00 802 813 Mar 27, 2015 17:00 813 825 Mar 20, 2015 17:00 825 866 Mar 13, 2015 17:00 866 922 Mar 06, 2015 17:00 922 986 Feb 27, 2015 17:00 986 1019 Feb 20, 2015 17:00 1019 1056 Feb 13, 2015 17:00 1056 1140 Feb 06, 2015 17:00 1140 1223 Jan 30, 2015 17:00 1223 1317 Jan 23, 2015 17:00 1317 1366 Jan 16, 2015 17:00 1366 1421 Jan 09, 2015 17:00 1421 1482 Jan 02, 2015 17:00 1482 1499 Dec 26, 2014 17:00 1499 1536 Dec 19, 2014 17:00 1536 1546 Dec 12, 2014 17:00 1546 1575

Just discussing further on the subject of the dividend. Debate on that subject should be ended until at least 2017Q1 as the Company has repeatedly issued guidance that the dividend will be maintained or increased across that timeframe. Dividend credibility has been at the core of Shell for many years - and has not been violated by any Shell board since World War 2. And as for the BG deal, I am resolutely in the YES camp. Natural Gas prices have been booming over the last weeks and are set for much greater gains over the immediate short-term according to the commentaries that I have had sight of. LNG has surged already by over 16% in the last month, including 5% or so yesterday alone. Any dividend cut within that timeframe is unimaginable if the board is to remain in post. Safest dividend in the FTSE100 in my own view.

5 hours ago ... https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-sees-bg-deal-working-192423292.html Extract below - see link for the full article, but note the following sentence: *** Shell plans to keep the size of its dividend unchanged *** LONDON (Reuters) - Royal Dutch Shell has told investors its purchase of BG can work even if oil prices average $50 a barrel for two years, its lowest estimate to date as it seeks to secure shareholder support for the $51 billion deal amid plunging crude markets. The Anglo-Dutch group is confident investors will back the deal at a Jan. 27 meeting, even though crude prices are languishing near 12 year lows around $32 a barrel and it faces a cut to its credit ratings due to higher debts, sources with knowledge of its meetings with analysts and investors said. When Shell (RDSa.L) announced the deal in April 2015, with oil trading around $55 a barrel, many investors saw it as a bold move to buy a weakened rival on the expectation that prices would recover to around $90 per barrel within three years. Initially, Shell indicated the combined group would be profitable with prices in the mid $70s a barrel. Last month, it said the merger would work in the low $60s, as it identified new synergies and cost cutting opportunities. On Wednesday, finance chief Simon Henry told analysts Shell had conducted stress tests that showed it could withstand oil at $50 a barrel over the next two years, the sources told Reuters. A Reuters poll on Monday showed analysts expect benchmark North Sea Brent crude futures to average $52.52 a barrel this year. To weather such an environment, Shell plans to cut capital spending further below the planned $35 billion for 2016, delay share buybacks and extend scrip dividends, where investors are offered discounted shares instead of cash, Henry told analysts. Shell plans to keep the size of its dividend unchanged, however. Henry also met this week in London with several of Shell's top 10 investors, including BlackRock and Capital Group, seeking to address concerns about the deal. Chief Executive Ben van Beurden is expected to meet other leading investors in London on Friday and both he and Henry will hold phone briefings with U.S. investors next week, according to company sources. The investors are being asked how they plan to vote on the deal. Several so far have confirmed their support, but most have refused to disclose their plans, according to the sources. Despite weak oil prices, the deal is expected to win the backing of a majority of Shell's shareholders.

Oil futures are gushing up right now Brent +3.25% to $50.38. Looking good.

Here's the one I use - hope some of you find it useful. It also works great on mobiles. http://uk.investing.com/commodities/brent-oil-candlestick

Ah - the old pub info sketch. Always worth some careful consideration. I should add that my deceased aunt's budgie said that it's mate overheard a high-flyer in these parts suggest that many local opinions point to an oil price hike in line with values available as in-line swaps from 01 - 811- 8055. Ask Noel. FFS.

Oil extends gains, set for biggest weekly rise since 2009 http://uk.investing.com/news/commodities-news/crude-oil-futures-rise-after-bullish-forecast,-fed-minutes-71820 Oct 09, 2015 10:07 By Karolin Schaps LONDON (Reuters) - Oil extended gains on Friday and was set for its biggest weekly rise in over six years, after U.S. Federal Reserve minutes suggested there was no hurry to raise interest rates and an influential forecaster predicted a price rally. Brent crude, the global benchmark, was up 60 cents at $53.65 a barrel at 0844 GMT, on track to rise 11 percent this week alone. U.S. crude was up 77 cents at $50.20 a barrel after rising as far as $50.58, the highest level in more than two months. The U.S. central bank's meeting minutes showed more policymakers than expected agreed to keep the first interest rate hike in a decade on hold. The news also supported equity markets on Friday, with top European stocks climbing to a one-month high. Forecaster PIRA Energy Group issued a bullish oil price prediction on Thursday, saying oil would hit $70 a barrel by the end of next year and to trade at $75 in 2017. "The Fed minutes and the PIRA price forecast are driving prices today," said Tamas Varga, oil analyst at London brokerage PVM Oil Associates. "The rally may sustain for the short term but it should run out of steam some time next week because we are in a generally oversupplied market." Energy Aspects is forecasting Brent to average $68 in 2016 and $98 in 2017, analyst Richard Mallinson told the Platts Asian Crude Oil Summit in Singapore on Friday. After the July nuclear agreement, Iran will ramp up exports much slower than expected by the market, Mallinson said. If sanctions are eased, Iran will be able to increase crude exports by 250,000 to 400,000 barrels a day by around mid-2016. After that, significant extra volumes will only come in 2017 or 2018, Mallinson said. Investors were awaiting indications on U.S. production with the weekly Baker Hughes rig count expected later on Friday.

http://www.voanews.com/content/reu-opec-sec-gen-sees-oil-market-improving-low-price-will-not-persist/2993574.html OPEC Sees Oil Market Improving, Low Price Will Not Persist Quote today by OPEC secretary-general Abdullah al-Badri : “We will see the effect of the cut on production,” Badri said. “This will mean less supply in the near future.” “We are seeing now a low price. After a few months, we will not see this. We will see a higher price again.” Extract The International Energy Agency, which advises industrialized countries on oil policy, sees an even larger impact on non-OPEC supply in 2016 from low prices. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol, also at the conference, said the drop in upstream oil investment in 2015 would be at least 20 percent versus 2014, the biggest ever fall. OPEC expects global demand for its crude, under pressure in recent years because of rising supplies from outside the group, to rise to 30.3 million barrels per day in 2016, about 1 million bpd more than in 2015.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/oct/06/shell-boss-ben-van-beurden-sees-signs-of-oil-price-recovery-but-warns-of-spike Shell boss sees signs of oil price recovery but warns of 'spike' Ben van Beurden points to first mixed signals of a recovery though raises concern that prolonged low prices could lead to a sudden increase

Oil price forecaster declares crude at a 'turning point' http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/oil-price-forecaster-declares-crude-at-a-turning-point-1.3258298 Between improving demand and declines in U.S. oil supplies, the market could rebalance in 2016

http://sharecast.com/news/shell-doing-all-it-can-to-shield-dividend-ceo/23400222.html Shell doing all it can to safeguard dividend amid low oil prices, says CEO Extract (ShareCast News) - The chief executive officer of Shell said the oil giant is "pulling out all the stops" to safeguard its dividends and buy-back programme, and to keep its investment programme steady for the future. In an emailed version of his speech at the Oil and Money conference in London, Ben van Beurden outlined Shell's strategy to cope with an extended period of low oil prices. Beurden said that despite lower oil prices, the company's gearing ratio - debt related to equity capital - is essentially unchanged since the end of 2015 and stands at 12.7%. This reflects good operational performance, which in turn leads to cash generation and re-introduction of the scrip dividend, it said. Beurden said this brings more short-term flexibility to Shell and ultimately protects dividends. He also spoke about reducing operating costs. Beurden noted that costs fell in the first half of this year and said he expects them to drop by over $4bn, or around 10% over the full year. "Costs are now back at the levels that we saw in 2011. And cost will go down further next year as we continue to work on the supply chain, on our overheads, and on targeted programmes in certain areas," he said. Shell is also focusing on a reduction in capital investment, which it expects to be around $30bn in 2015. That's 20% lower than last year and 35% lower than in 2013.

Well worth a read - especially for those long in oil stocks. FJ :) How a ‘price spike’ threat lurks even in a world awash in oil http://business.financialpost.com/news/energy/how-a-price-spike-threat-lurks-even-in-a-world-awash-in-oil?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+FP_TopStories+%28Financial+Post+-+Top+Stories%29

Oil Rig Count Falls by 4; Hedge Funds Bet on Rising Prices Read more: http://247wallst.com/energy-economy/2015/09/26/oil-rig-count-falls-by-4-hedge-funds-bet-on-rising-prices/ A couple of extracts below but see full article at link above. FJ ---------- In the week ended September 25, the number of rigs drilling for oil in the United States totaled 640, compared with 644 in the prior week and 1,592 a year ago. Including 198 other rigs mostly drilling for natural gas, there are a total of 838 working rigs in the country, down by four week over week and down 1,093 year over year. The data come from the latest Baker Hughes Inc. (NYSE: BHI) North American Rotary Rig Count. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for November delivery bounced to a high of around $47.15 a barrel last week before settling at $45.34 on Friday, up about 1.5% for the week. The price spiked immediately following Wednesday’s announcement of U.S. crude inventories. ..... Hedge funds — under the Managed Money heading in the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) weekly Commitments of Traders report — dumped 10,168 short contracts last week and added 9,386 contracts to their long positions. The movement reflects changes as of the September 22 settlement date. Managed money holds 269,393 long positions compared with 105,552 short positions.