Rainbow Rare Earths Phalaborwa project shaping up to be one of the lowest cost producers globally. Watch the video here.
A follow-up to the Pfizer vaccine story this morning, that dovetails superbly for the start of Saga cruises in February ..
Prof Jonathan Van-Tam suggested that Oxford University and AstraZeneca’s AZD1222 shot – based on a different technology – could be available in the UK “soon after Christmas”.
That timeframe would allow vaccination of elderly and vulnerable people as well as key workers to begin in the New Year, according to an article in the Sunday Times. The comments were made at a joint Commons and Lords national security strategy committee meeting.
HTTps://www.seatrade-cruise.com/ports-destinations/tui-commence-canary-islands-cruises-november
That's good to see Rupans.
It's great news to see TUI Cruises adding 9 new Canary Islands cruises starting next month.
That makes Saga's decision to commence its program with a cruise to the Canary Islands at the start of February look rather well judged.
Https://travel.saga.co.uk/cruises/ocean/where-we-go/canaries-cruises/spirit-of-adventures-inaugural-cruise.aspx
Furthermore, I've just seen yet another TV advert promoting cruises in the first quarter of 2021 - this time it was Hurtigruten Cruise Lines offering no-flight cruises from Dover.
So it looks like momentum for a re-start for cruises is really started to build.
I wonder whether governmental clearance been given a quiet nod ahead of time to allow cruise lines to prepare?
I suspect that he's got a great deal more than that. However, I doubt that he'll ever need to do what has been suggested in this thread, but I'm quite sure that he could easily afford to in such an unlikely scenario.
----------------
These are Kent's richest people - and here's how they made all their money
Ahead of The Sunday Times Rich List 2020 - here's a look at Kent's wealthiest people
By Ben Ashton & Andy Robinson Senior Reporter
16 MAY 2020
Https://www.kentlive.news/news/kent-news/kents-richest-people-heres-how-4139904
...
Sir Roger and Peter De Haan
2019 wealth: £884m
From 2018: Down £6m
The De Haan brothers sold their company Saga, which specialised in holidays for over 50s, in 2004 for £1.35bn and have since become well known in Kent for investing in their home town of Folkestone.
Roger, 71, is listed as spending £18m on sport projects and £42m on arts and creative industries in Folkestone.
His brother Peter, 68 runs a wine business and a property company.
Re: "The recent issue was only half subscribed"
Not true at all - it was 100% fully subscribed.
The key difference here is that a certain Sir Roger De Haan - now the Saga Chairman - bought up all of the additional shares permitted under the offer that private investors didn't want to or couldn't take up. So many small investors are cash-strapped in these difficult days that it's hardly surprising that not all could afford to do so. No doubt some others simply didn't want to, but it's likely to be a mix of the two reasons for abstaining.
But Roger De Haan wants Saga shares - in the recent Placing and Open Offer he bought:
First Firm Placing: 224,400,000 @ £0.27 = £60,588,000
Second Firm Placing: 124,183,026 @ £0.12 = £14,901,963
Placing and Open Offer: 204,250,307 @ £0.12 = £24,510,037
Which constitutes his full purchase of 552,833,333 shares for £100,000,000 at an average of 18.09p per share and constituting 26.40 per cent of the Enlarged Share Capital.
With an intimate knowledge of this Company going back decades and that appetite to acquire £100Million of Saga shares at 18.09p, I'd be amazed if further acquisitions at less than 18p didn't follow rather soon.
By my logical reasoning, that implies a potential 64% upside in the very short term.
Does anyone else here have some of their Saga shares in a Barclays ISA?
The Saga Entitlement shows but cannot be accessed and has the message "This product is no longer eligible in ISA".
Any ideas?
EXPECTED TIMETABLE OF PRINCIPAL EVENTS
Record Date for entitlements under the Open Offer ........................ 6.00 p.m. on 9 September 2020
Announcement of the Capital Raising and Saga Half-Year Results
2020 ................................................................................................... 10 September 2020
Announcement of the results of the conditional placing pursuant to
the Placing and Open Offer............................................................... 10 September 2020
Ex-Entitlement Date for the Open Offer ............................................ 8.00 a.m. on 11 September 2020
Publication of the Prospectus (including the Notice of General
Meeting, Form of Proxy and Application Form) ................................ 11 September 2020
Open Offer Entitlements credited to stock accounts of Qualifying
CREST Shareholders in CREST .......................................................
as soon as practicable after
8.00 a.m. on 15 September 2020
Recommended latest time for requesting withdrawal of Open Offer
Entitlements from CREST.................................................................. 4.30 p.m. on 24 September 2020
Latest time and date for depositing Open Offer Entitlements into
CREST ............................................................................................... 3.00 p.m. on 25 September 2020
Latest time and date for receipt of completed SSA Application
Forms and payment in full under the Open Offer for the SSA. 11.00 a.m. on 28 September 2020
Latest time and date for splitting of Application Forms (to satisfy
bona fide market claims only) ........................................................... 3.00 p.m. on 28 September 2020
Latest time and date for receipt of Forms of Direction..................... 10.30 a.m. on 29 September 2020
Latest time and date for receipt of Forms of Proxy.......................... 10.30 a.m. on 30 September 2020
Latest time and date for receipt of completed Application
Forms and payment in full under the Open Offer or settlement
of relevant CREST instruction (as appropriate).......................... 11.00 a.m. on 30 September 2020
Announcement of the results of the Placing and Open Offer .......... 2 October 2020
General Meeting .............................................................................. 10.30 a.m. on 2 October 2020
Announcement of the results of the General Meeting...................... 2 October 2020
Admission and commencement of dealings in New Shares.... by 8.00 a.m. on 5 October 2020
New Shares credited to CREST accounts (uncertificated holders
only)....................................................................................................
as soon as practicable after
8.00 a.m. on 5 October 2020
Good morning EJ (Alas Smith),
Many thanks for your excellent posts, as ever.
But just a couple of points, if I may.
Re your: "His career moved him from taking over the reins of Saga after the death of his father ..."
Roger was already the CEO of Saga when I started working there in the mid-1980s. His father Sidney passed away in 2002 - I think he retired from Saga around 1984.
Re your: "having lots of money (consequential on fathers acumen) does not qualify de Haan as a competent manager"
Saga developed and expanded massively under Roger's excellent leadership. In the mid-1980s, we worked from one old dilapidated mansion in Enbrook Park with a shabby car park for about 40 or 50 cars. By the time he sold the business, that site had been transformed to a huge, state of the art headquarters and we had several further satellite offices in the surrounding areas. The transformation was hugely impressive.
The organisation had not only greatly expanded, but had become far more professional, progressive and moved into the emerging digital sales & communication channels. Several completely new business areas were developed creating a truly diverse model for Saga.
Business revenues and profits had been consistently rising strongly and that is why Roger was able to sell the business for £1.35 billion and subsequently enjoyed "having lots of money".
I can personally assure you that he is a hugely capable leader and certainly qualifies as a "competent manager".
Today's news is great and, I must admit, a massive surprise to me.
Roger De Haan will completely turn this around. Have no doubt about that.
Unlike the shorters who know nothing at all about Saga, I worked for this company for nearly a quarter of a century.
During my earlier career at Saga, I was in several meetings with Roger leading up to 2004. He is an incredibly strong character and will ensure that the CEO and the top team at Saga will deliver for the Company, its investors, its employees and the towns in which it is by far the largest employer.
Everyone will be happy with this great news.
I haven't worked for Saga for several years now, but I would certainly consider returning now Sir Roger is going to be back in charge.
Many other ex-employees will feel the same, so Saga will have access to a highly talented pool of professionals once the economy starts to recover.
Personally, I don't care whether Tuesdays's share price is 14p, 27p or higher.
A floor has now been established under this business and, with that, concerns of liquidity have been extinguished.
If the CEO does not perform as required, he'll be gone as quickly as the last set of useless, beige, non-entities.
Saga has now been re-born as it always should have been - a De Haan thoroughbred company.
So, to put the likely Brent average of $75 for this Q2 or for $90 potentially in 2020 into perspective, recall from the slides that accompanied the 4th Quarter Results the very clear Shell metric: Price sensitivity: +/ -$10 Brent = +/ -~$6 billion CFFO ... along with the commentary in those results .... "This performance delivered around $28 billion in free cash flow in 2017 with oil at $54 per barrel. By 2020, we expect to deliver between $25 and $30 billion in organic free cash flow, at an oil price of $60 per barrel, real terms 2016. While this outlook is ambitious, our performance in 2017 gives us confidence that it is realistic. We have close to $10 billion in cash flow from new projects still to be delivered in the 2018 to 2020 timeframe, growth across our portfolio and continued cash delivery from operational improvements." ---- So we have: Oil price of $60 per barrel, real terms 2016 --> $25 to $30 billion in organic FCF Or for current average Brent prices look set to be around $75 per barrel: Oil price of $75 per barrel, real terms 2016 --> $34 to $39 billion in organic FCF Or for $90 a barrel as predicted by Morgan Stanley above: Oil price of $90 per barrel, real terms 2016 --> $43 to $48 billion in organic FCF So your �30 price for RDSB may seem pretty cheap sometime soon. FJ :)
You suggest �30 by August - well, why not? We're exactly halfway through Q2 and Brent stands at an average of $73.35 and sits currently way higher at $79.12, so we could be looking at a Q2 average of $75 or more. Levels not seen since 2014 Q4. And Morgan Stanley predicted today that Brent crude oil will average $90 a barrel in 2020 as demand for middle distillates like diesel and jet fuel grows. MS suggest that stockpiles of distillates are nearing five-year lows and that refineries are scrambling to satisfy growing consumption. Morgan Stanley also cautions that new pollution rules in the shipping industry will only increase demand for distillates. FJ
At last, here we go - happy days. FJ :) ---------------------------- Https://www.chron.com/business/energy/article/Crude-surges-as-Xi-allays-trade-war-fears-Saudis-12822346.php Crude surges as Xi allays trade war fears, Saudis seek $80 oil Jessica Summers, Bloomberg Published 2:55 pm, Tuesday, April 10, 2018 Oil jumped to the highest since 2014 as China struck a conciliatory tone on trade and Saudi Arabia was said to seek higher prices. Futures in London jumped by almost 4 percent on Tuesday as equities also climbed. Chinese President Xi Jinping said zero-sum mentalities were "out of place" and backed dialogue to resolve disputes, dissipating fears of a trade spat with the U.S. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is said to want to get prices near $80 to fund spending and support the valuation of its state oil giant's initial public offering. "It's a risk-on type day," said Bob Yawger, director of futures at Mizuho Securities USA Inc. in New York. "The biggest correlation is to the equity markets." In two days, the oil market dispelled the pessimism of two weeks largely dominated by concerns over U.S.-China tensions and a buildup of stockpiles at America's largest distribution hub in Oklahoma. Brent for June settlement climbed as much $2.69 to $71.34 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange, the highest since December 2014, after settling at $71.04. West Texas Intermediate for May delivery rose $2.09 to settle at $65.51 a barrel, the highest in two weeks, on the New York Mercantile Exchange. 'Opening Up' The Chinese leader pledged a "new phase of opening up" in a long-planned speech that was closely watched by traders for any response to U.S. President Donald Trump's plan to hit hundreds of Chinese products with duties. Following Xi's speech, Asian stocks and U.S. futures jumped. In conversations with OPEC delegates and oil market participants, Saudi officials had been careful to avoid pinpointing an exact price target. Yet people who have spoken to them said the inescapable conclusion from the conversations was that Riyadh is aiming for $80. "The day-to-day price action that we've seen is really about risk appetite and not so much fundamentals," said Michael Wittner, the head of commodities research at Societe Generale SA in New York. The S&P 500 Energy Index climbed as much as 4 percent, the biggest intraday advance since November 2016. The best performers include Devon Energy Corp., TechnipFMC Plc and Newfield Exploration Co., all posting gains of more than 6 percent. In the U.S., crude inventories probably fell by 1.25 million barrels last week, according to a Bloomberg survey ahead of government data that will be released on Wednesday. That would follow a surprise decrease of 4.6 million barrels a week earlier. Stockpiles held at the key Cushing, Oklahoma, pipeline hub likely rose by 2 million barrels last week, a fo
... all this flying in the face of portfolio diversification, that is. :) I added a further chunk of RDSB this week, but was already 100% RDSB. Why? Well, Shell is a company that has diversification built in since it operates in most geographical parts of the globe and spans every sector of energy from discovery to fuel cap. And the visibility in its core markets is very high, which gives confidence to long-term positions. For instance, we can currently see that 2018 Q1 Average Brent is currently running at $67.09 compared to an oil price of $60 per barrel that was given as a benchmark guidance in the 4th Quarter Results: "This performance delivered around $28 billion in free cash flow in 2017 with oil at $54 per barrel. By 2020, we expect to deliver between $25 and $30 billion in organic free cash flow, at an oil price of $60 per barrel, real terms 2016. While this outlook is ambitious, our performance in 2017 gives us confidence that it is realistic. We have close to $10 billion in cash flow from new projects still to be delivered in the 2018 to 2020 timeframe, growth across our portfolio and continued cash delivery from operational improvements." And we know from the slides that accompanied the 4th Quarter Results last month that price sensitivity varies from that benchmark guidance of $60: +/ -$10 Brent = +/ -~$6 billion CFFO So data for 2018Q1 is clearly pointing to a very strong performance. And that's why I sleep easy on a 100%, balls-out, all-in approach on this one. All the best, FJ
Yep - this is going to be fun. Crude Oil WTI Futures are now up 2.79% to $63.45. Brent is surging to $69.25. ----------- Coverage on tonight's API data: Oil Prices Rise After API Reports Staggering Crude Oil Draw By Julianne Geiger - Jan 09, 2018, 3:43 PM CST Https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Rise-After-API-Reports-Staggering-Crude-Oil-Draw.html The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a staggeringly large draw of 11.19 million barrels of United States crude oil inventories for the week ending January 5, marking six large draws in as many weeks, according to the API data. Analysts, had expected a much smaller drawdown of 3.89 million barrels in crude oil. Last week, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a large draw of 4.992 million barrels of crude oil, along with an increase in gasoline inventories of 1.87 million barrels. This week, the API is reporting another build in gasoline inventories of 4.338 million barrels for the week ending January 5. Analysts had expected a smaller, 2.625-million-barrel build. WTI and Brent soared to three-year highs on Tuesday before the data on the expectation that crude oil inventories would decline yet another week, along with EIA�s updated forecast for oil demand growth that shows an increase over previous figures of 100,000 bpd. WTI was trading up 2.33% (+$1.44) at $63.17 at 1:51pm EST. The Brent benchmark was trading up 1.76% (+$1.19) at $68.97. Still analysts are cautious of its long-term prospects as US shale is expected to continue to eat away at OPEC�s production cut efforts as prices rise, although that caution appears to be weakening somewhat as prices continue to hold. Distillate inventories also saw a build this week of 4.685 million barrels, against a forecast of a 1.464-million-barrel build. Inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma, site decreased by 2.516 million barrels this week.
... the fun should be starting soon as our great 2017Q4 results get closer to release (in 3 weeks' time). Not to mention that 2018Q1 has got off to a superb start with oil prices at multi-year highs - currently nearing WTI at $63 and Brent pushing toward $69. Happy days. FJ
.... How many sectors have such wonderful visibility? This is why I have focussed so strongly on this sector - you can see such a high percentage of events coming ahead of time. Of course there is an offset between higher crude reducing refining and other downstream margins and volatility affecting trading profits. But that's the whole point of being an integrated oil supermajor - to smooth the inescapable commodity curve. Furthermore, we can't foresee geo-political nonsense (such as a potential North Korean conflict, trade wars, regime change - like the current Saudi royal family purges etc.), shifts in legislation or, god forbid for reasons beyond investment concerns alone, major oil spills or other environmental disasters. By the way, as a long-term and heavy investor in this sector (I'm well over 18 stone), I rank environmental concerns hugely before profit. I was delighted with our exit from the Arctic nonsense and I want us to exit Nigeria as pipeline integrity there is virtually impossible due to both terrorism and due to localised, polluting theft. Sadly, I don't think we'll be doing so any time soon, but I can only hope. A company's integrity has to be beyond challenge in an ideal world. Happily, Shell is clearly far more committed to greener technology than any other global player and that's why my investment remains here and I remain an advocate with the caveats expressed. In that respect, the acquisition of this EV facilitator really is fantastic - have a read - this is definitely money well spent for the long-term future: Https://newmotion.com/en NewMotion is in pole position for the expansion of EV fleet and personal use across Europe (mainly NL right now) and the UK, no doubt dovetailing with our branded EV expansion. I'm quite tempted to get a charge point installed at my own home by them (or us) for less than �450 for when guests visit. I doubt Exxon would ever have thought of such an enlightened approach. Hopefully, Shell will replace Exxon at the top of the global table for energy companies in February when these Q4's hit the headlines. Back to the data - the key thing is that you CAN see the core data flows and that these give a very good idea of what will be coming the next quarterly results. Shell themselves have helpfully offered guidance of what a $10 shift in Brent means for earnings - so yet again, visibility. Take the average Brent price on New Year's Eve, apply that to your data model and then go out to celebrate a superb year. For disclosure, I remain "Never sell Shell". All the best, FJ :)
Looking at crude price data for Q4 so far: Date Price Open High Low Vol. Change % Nov 13, 2017 63.13 63.65 63.7 62.62 0 -0.61 Nov 10, 2017 63.52 63.8 64.27 63.35 307.97K -0.64 Nov 09, 2017 63.93 63.52 64.25 63.26 319.86K 0.69 Nov 08, 2017 63.49 63.69 64.64 62.95 418.07K -0.31 Nov 07, 2017 63.69 64.12 64.65 63.5 389.46K -0.9 Nov 06, 2017 64.27 62.27 64.44 62.08 356.99K 3.54 Nov 03, 2017 62.07 60.88 62.23 60.6 272.74K 2.39 Nov 02, 2017 60.62 60.5 60.86 60.02 289.30K 0.21 Nov 01, 2017 60.49 61.07 61.7 60 337.76K -1.43 Oct 31, 2017 61.37 60.86 61.41 60.53 29.12K 0.77 Oct 30, 2017 60.9 60.66 61 60.14 168.54K 0.76 Oct 27, 2017 60.44 59.37 60.65 58.82 209.89K 1.92 Oct 26, 2017 59.3 58.42 59.55 58.05 232.28K 1.47 Oct 25, 2017 58.44 58.44 58.74 57.85 260.55K 0.19 Oct 24, 2017 58.33 57.41 58.57 57.04 334.68K 1.67 Oct 23, 2017 57.37 57.95 58.05 57.27 353.07K -0.66 Oct 20, 2017 57.75 57.32 57.94 56.6 369.89K 0.91 Oct 19, 2017 57.23 58.24 58.3 57.02 430.67K -1.58 Oct 18, 2017 58.15 58.16 58.54 57.74 329.33K 0.47 Oct 17, 2017 57.88 57.78 58.35 57.18 405.22K 0.1 Oct 16, 2017 57.82 57.28 58.47 57.12 341.78K 1.14 Oct 13, 2017 57.17 56.44 57.57 56.34 332.60K 1.64 Oct 12, 2017 56.25 56.74 56.83 55.88 339.53K -1.21 Oct 11, 2017 56.94 56.56 57.09 56.14 310.14K 0.58 Oct 10, 2017 56.61 55.78 56.91 55.73 290.34K 1.47 Oct 09, 2017 55.79 55.5 55.98 55.06 301.15K 0.31 Oct 06, 2017 55.62 56.99 57.28 55.13 395.65K -2.42 Oct 05, 2017 57 55.77 57.24 55.7 379.30K 2.15 Oct 04, 2017 55.8 55.67 56.2 55.38 330.85K -0.36 Oct 03, 2017 56 56.1 56.4 55.7 275.42K -0.21 Oct 02, 2017 56.12 56.73 56.76 55.5 352.05K -2.47 Highest:64.65 Lowest:55.06 Difference:9.59 Average:59.14 Change %:9.71 This data set tells us that thus far in Q4, Brent is averaging $59.14 and has been consistently averaging higher day-on-day since Oct 26th, so this average is trending higher right now. This compares to the Q3 results that were predicated on Brent at an average price of $52. If you were to assume that Brent traded no higher and no lower than the current weekly average of $63.55 from today until Q4 ends on 31/12/2017, the average price of Brent will be around $61.48 compared to Q3's $52 - 18% higher. Therefore you can either project what you think Brent will trade at - whether higher or lower than the current $63.44 from today until Q4 and determine what your projected Q4 average price for Brent will be. I honestly cannot predict whether Brent prices will go up or down from here on any more than a toss of a sixpence. So I can't predict whether prices will trend higher, lower or stay roughly as is - and I don't need to. I will just watch the data accumulate day by day until we near the end of the year and then, there you have it. A full data set will be available a whole 5 weeks before Q4 and finals are reported so that you can feed into your mathematical models for this stock. .....