Member Info for FJGooner

The price immediately before Covid (late February) was around 45p in old money - or £6.80.

Moderna vaccine results are out and are superb. 94.5%% effective!

Roxbury,

When doing your calculations you must either compare:

Pre-rights issue company value vs Pre-rights shares in issue
OR
Post-rights issue company value vs Post-rights shares in issue

Taking your example.
"Current share price £1.98
So current MCAP = 1.98 x 139,594,769 = £276M"
>>> Fine - that's indisputable.

"To get the OLD pre-dilution share price we have to divide it by the pre-dilution number of shares.
So
276,397,643/1,122,003,328 = 24.36p"
>>> That is wrong. You are comparing:
Post-rights issue company value vs Pre-rights shares in issue

"So £1.98 pre-dilution is 24.36p FACT."
>>> Therefore that is also wrong.

You must discount the net £140 Million cash added into the business at the rights issue before making that calculation, so:
(276,397,643-140,000,000)/1,122,003,328 = 12.16p

So £1.98 pre-dilution is 12.16p.

You really must take into account that £140,000,000 - actual money in the real world - was NOT available, accessible, extant, visible, there at all - when making calculations against the pre-dilution shares issue of 1,122,003,328.

All in my humble opinion and I'm happy to be persuaded otherwise.

It really doesn't matter to be honest, but you seem to repeat the same errors each time this subject comes up.

You are correct.

A few weeks ago, I calculated the actual price that Roger De Haan paid for his shares as 18.09p per share in old money - or £2.713 in new money.

Roger’s First Firm Placing: 224,400,000 @ £0.27 = £60,588,000

Roger’s Second Firm Placing: 124,183,026 @ £0.12 = £14,901,963

Roger’s Placing and Open Offer: 204,250,307 @ £0.12 = £24,510,037

Which constitutes the full purchase of 552,833,333 shares for (exactly) £100,000,000 at an average of 18.09p per share and constituting 26.40 per cent of the Enlarged Share Capital.

18.09p consolidated at 15:1 equates to £2.713.

I hope that helps.

Ah diddums.

Is no-one interested in reading your puerile drivel any more?

What a shame.

RoxburyHouse,

If I may, I'll try to assist.

You say: "The figures in Column A are today’s share price and are calculated using the actual Mcap and number of shares both which I have no control over. Remember Column A and B are today’s share price. The only difference is that one is divided by 15."
>>> That is correct.

You then say: "It’s ridiculous when people say to get the old share price you simply divide the existing share price by 15."

>>> No it's not. You've only just stated that the only difference between Column A and B is that one is divided by 15. That is correct because the only difference is the consolidation.

However, columns A, B and D seem reasonable to me. It's column C where the unintentional misrepresentation occurs.

You are mis-combining the consolidation with the capital raise - which, to be fair, is easily done. I mean no criticism here.

Your Column C is non-sensical as it is applying a multiple on one side of the calculation without accounting for the reason of the financial event on the other side.

Taking one line from your example columns A to C:

145.00 9.60 18.00

I believe that the correct value in column C properly reconciling the capital raised is:

145.00 9.60 5.556

(Just to be clear, below is all adjusted for consolidation of course)
Your figure of 18 .00 is derived by choosing ONLY to acknowledge the effect of pre-dilution number of shares in issue. But to sensibly revert to the pre-dilution scenario, one ALSO has to discount the net £140 million cash added into the business (BECAUSE IT WASN'T PRESENT BEFORE). This needs to be extracted from the prevailing market cap before division by pre-dilution share issue to make correct comparisons.

Correcting this calculation (at base 145p) gives an effective share price of around 5.56p (not 18p) which clearly illustrates the massive under pricing of this stock. "The city" has got this wrong in a big way in my opinion and will correct over the months ahead.

The market cap of this company today is roughly £200 million. Take away that net £140 million cash added this month yields just £60 million - this last fortnight's share price has been the lowest in the company's public history and is absurd.

This is ludicrously undervalued in my opinion.

So, for your calculations, always consider that in its simplest form, that £140 Million cash is real money that has been delivered into a real business and must be recognised as such when doing "old / new money" comparisons.

To ignore its effect is utter folly, as in the old scenario that huge amount of money was not present, whilst in the new scenario it is present.

No. I don't need a calculator.

I was rather simply referring to the hick post by kidsandcastles with that incredible, insightful "I reckon" level of analysis.

My core mathematical and analysis skills, at the purest level or - at a push - at my more practised applied variations of theoretical mechanics, can surely be no match for the much vaunted derivatives of the "I reckon" or "what's this divided by 15" offered by some experts on here ... some presumably on day release from a provincial zoo park.

Anyhow, let us forget mathematics for analysing these meagre endeavours.

A simple predicate calculus is all you need when evaluating such truth propositions.

Have a great weekend.

What a brilliant insightful, piece of analysis.

Well done.

Coronavirus: Canary Islands added to UK's safe travel list
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54650531

UK tourists seeking winter sun have been given a boost, after Spain's Canary Islands and the Maldives were added to the government's safe travel list.

It means visitors will no longer need to quarantine for 14 days on their return, with the Greek island of Mykonos and Denmark also deemed safe.

The changes apply to anyone arriving in the UK after 04:00 BST on Sunday.

I'm not sure who that was, but you can currently see (from the website, Prices and Availability button) that there are only 212 cabins remaining for the inaugural cruise including just 12 of the more expensive Mid Ship Suites, 5 of which have sold in the last 2 weeks.

I'd imagine that booking rates will start to ramp up as cruise visibility continues to increase in the manner observed this week.

A follow-up to the Pfizer vaccine story this morning, that dovetails superbly for the start of Saga cruises in February ..

Prof Jonathan Van-Tam suggested that Oxford University and AstraZeneca’s AZD1222 shot – based on a different technology – could be available in the UK “soon after Christmas”.

That timeframe would allow vaccination of elderly and vulnerable people as well as key workers to begin in the New Year, according to an article in the Sunday Times. The comments were made at a joint Commons and Lords national security strategy committee meeting.

HTTps://www.seatrade-cruise.com/ports-destinations/tui-commence-canary-islands-cruises-november

That's good to see Rupans.

It's great news to see TUI Cruises adding 9 new Canary Islands cruises starting next month.

That makes Saga's decision to commence its program with a cruise to the Canary Islands at the start of February look rather well judged.

Https://travel.saga.co.uk/cruises/ocean/where-we-go/canaries-cruises/spirit-of-adventures-inaugural-cruise.aspx

Furthermore, I've just seen yet another TV advert promoting cruises in the first quarter of 2021 - this time it was Hurtigruten Cruise Lines offering no-flight cruises from Dover.

So it looks like momentum for a re-start for cruises is really started to build.

I wonder whether governmental clearance been given a quiet nod ahead of time to allow cruise lines to prepare?

I suspect that he's got a great deal more than that. However, I doubt that he'll ever need to do what has been suggested in this thread, but I'm quite sure that he could easily afford to in such an unlikely scenario.
----------------
These are Kent's richest people - and here's how they made all their money
Ahead of The Sunday Times Rich List 2020 - here's a look at Kent's wealthiest people

By Ben Ashton & Andy Robinson Senior Reporter
16 MAY 2020

Https://www.kentlive.news/news/kent-news/kents-richest-people-heres-how-4139904

...

Sir Roger and Peter De Haan
2019 wealth: £884m
From 2018: Down £6m

The De Haan brothers sold their company Saga, which specialised in holidays for over 50s, in 2004 for £1.35bn and have since become well known in Kent for investing in their home town of Folkestone.
Roger, 71, is listed as spending £18m on sport projects and £42m on arts and creative industries in Folkestone.
His brother Peter, 68 runs a wine business and a property company.

Yes, he is.

Re: "The recent issue was only half subscribed"

Not true at all - it was 100% fully subscribed.

The key difference here is that a certain Sir Roger De Haan - now the Saga Chairman - bought up all of the additional shares permitted under the offer that private investors didn't want to or couldn't take up. So many small investors are cash-strapped in these difficult days that it's hardly surprising that not all could afford to do so. No doubt some others simply didn't want to, but it's likely to be a mix of the two reasons for abstaining.

But Roger De Haan wants Saga shares - in the recent Placing and Open Offer he bought:

First Firm Placing: 224,400,000 @ £0.27 = £60,588,000

Second Firm Placing: 124,183,026 @ £0.12 = £14,901,963

Placing and Open Offer: 204,250,307 @ £0.12 = £24,510,037

Which constitutes his full purchase of 552,833,333 shares for £100,000,000 at an average of 18.09p per share and constituting 26.40 per cent of the Enlarged Share Capital.

With an intimate knowledge of this Company going back decades and that appetite to acquire £100Million of Saga shares at 18.09p, I'd be amazed if further acquisitions at less than 18p didn't follow rather soon.

By my logical reasoning, that implies a potential 64% upside in the very short term.

That's great sheltie.

I re-tried as suggested and it works perfectly.

Many thanks for your advice and all others who replied.

Have a great Sunday.

Does anyone else here have some of their Saga shares in a Barclays ISA?

The Saga Entitlement shows but cannot be accessed and has the message "This product is no longer eligible in ISA".

Any ideas?

Typo: meant:

£40m of EBITDA per cruise ship per annum

Yes. But in "normal times" the depreciation of £10m is offset against profits. Thus the £20m ebitda per vessel.

EXPECTED TIMETABLE OF PRINCIPAL EVENTS

Record Date for entitlements under the Open Offer ........................ 6.00 p.m. on 9 September 2020
Announcement of the Capital Raising and Saga Half-Year Results
2020 ................................................................................................... 10 September 2020
Announcement of the results of the conditional placing pursuant to
the Placing and Open Offer............................................................... 10 September 2020
Ex-Entitlement Date for the Open Offer ............................................ 8.00 a.m. on 11 September 2020
Publication of the Prospectus (including the Notice of General
Meeting, Form of Proxy and Application Form) ................................ 11 September 2020
Open Offer Entitlements credited to stock accounts of Qualifying
CREST Shareholders in CREST .......................................................
as soon as practicable after
8.00 a.m. on 15 September 2020
Recommended latest time for requesting withdrawal of Open Offer
Entitlements from CREST.................................................................. 4.30 p.m. on 24 September 2020
Latest time and date for depositing Open Offer Entitlements into
CREST ............................................................................................... 3.00 p.m. on 25 September 2020
Latest time and date for receipt of completed SSA Application
Forms and payment in full under the Open Offer for the SSA. 11.00 a.m. on 28 September 2020
Latest time and date for splitting of Application Forms (to satisfy
bona fide market claims only) ........................................................... 3.00 p.m. on 28 September 2020
Latest time and date for receipt of Forms of Direction..................... 10.30 a.m. on 29 September 2020
Latest time and date for receipt of Forms of Proxy.......................... 10.30 a.m. on 30 September 2020
Latest time and date for receipt of completed Application
Forms and payment in full under the Open Offer or settlement
of relevant CREST instruction (as appropriate).......................... 11.00 a.m. on 30 September 2020
Announcement of the results of the Placing and Open Offer .......... 2 October 2020
General Meeting .............................................................................. 10.30 a.m. on 2 October 2020
Announcement of the results of the General Meeting...................... 2 October 2020
Admission and commencement of dealings in New Shares.... by 8.00 a.m. on 5 October 2020
New Shares credited to CREST accounts (uncertificated holders
only)....................................................................................................
as soon as practicable after
8.00 a.m. on 5 October 2020