@Horses,
Some excellent work there.
And the cruise booking figures are undoubtedly very strong, but I suspect that your calculations are possibly ignoring 2 aspects.
(1) You appear to be collating only Twin cabin availability and then comparing to a total cabin count that includes both singles and twins;
(2) Your figures appear to be based on the 100% capacity of 999 rather than the temporarily reduced capacity of guests onboard to a maximum of 800 (as advised by Saga whilst Covid-secure issues are addressed).
Of course this reduced capacity is reviewed every month and may not even apply before cruises re-commence, but I'd recommend building the 80% as the base-case and the 100% as the best-case to avoid disappointment later.
So to apply these criteria to one of your examples, say the Mediterranean Ancient Wonders Monday 12 April 2021 for 24 nights on the Spirit of Discovery, these are the worked data:
Mediterranean Ancient Wonders Normal Covid capped @ 80%
Total Twin cabins 445 356
Total Single cabins 109 87
Total cabins 554 443
As at 06/12/20
Total Twin cabins available 110 110
Total Single cabins available 5 5
Total Twin cabins booked 335 246
Total Single cabins booked 104 82
Total cabins booked 439 328
Total Twin cabins booked percentage 75.28% 69.10%
Total Single cabins booked percentage 95.41% 94.27%
Total cabins booked percentage 79.24% 74.05%
I hope that this helps in your calculations and please keep up the excellent work.
@RoxburyHouse,
Many thanks - I look forward to adding to the discussions and debates on this board as we go through a remarkably interesting and hopefully profitable few months ahead.
@Slownsteady,
Your kind comment is much appreciated - although by no means necessary, it was very nice of you.
Now that we are within 9 days of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine having its first doses being administered, we are undoubtedly entering a distinctly different phase. Very exciting.
@RoxburyHouse,
Re your: "FJ I would like you to apologise please for the “turncoat” comment. I would NEVER deramp a Stock once sold. It’s something I really frown upon."
Of course.
On reflection, I believe that you are 100% correct.
I have had a look back at our series of posts several weeks ago. Whilst we disagreed strongly on many points of that valuation discussion, you made no comments that would be characterized as I had suggested.
Therefore, I unreservedly withdraw my comment which seems wholly unjustified - I guess I was mixing up our debates on valuations with comments made by some other poster.
You seem like a decent and honest poster. So I hope that you will accept my sincere apology.
If not, in accordance with proper conduct and decency, I'll regretfully withdraw from posting any further on this board.
All the best,
FJ
Roxbury,
I'm pleased to see you back with a small holding in Saga - I sincerely hope that it goes very well for you.
However, and if I may be so bold, your conduct here wasn't quite as squeaky clean as your earlier post suggested, was it?
You were super positive on this stock until very early this month and then starkly switched to suddenly questioning valuations on every daily lift in share price.
I wondered why at the time, but your post humbly admits how painful that must have been to watch.
We've all been there, but I've found that it's best not to turncoat in that manner. I held an enormous amount of stock in Shell (RDSB) until late March - since liquidating that entire position I have never once made a negative post on Shell - indeed, I occasionally stumble across items of interest and post these onto the RDSB boards for the benefit of those other long-term holders I respect.
I'm afraid that the correct retelling of your story on this forum needs to include point (2) below in addition to your own points (1) and (3).
-----------------
(1) BANG The Vaccine announcement.
(2) I [Roxbury] repeatedly posted tables of "real" pre- and post- values, seemingly implying that the prevailing price of the company was WAY higher than reality by taking into account additional rights shares issued against £140M of cash raised, whilst simultaneously ignoring that £140M of raised cash.
(3) Sat and watched it eventually goto what was it ? £3.20?
But that is now in the past and I hope that your next milestone will be:
(4) Watching our immaculate cruise ships sailing out of harbour on a beautifully warm, late Spring morning, sipping on a cool drink with my Saga shares well over treble that I paid in late November.
All the best to you.
Fully agree on that "monolithic brown building" - I hated it when we moved there from the old Enbrook House in 1986. For me, Saga and Enbrook have always been the ideal fit - but of course, even with the new building in 1999, expansion made it impossible not to need the other locations.
Perhaps the new post-Covid world means that Saga will finally be able to be fully housed in Enbrook Park - I hope so.
I know that there have been some dramatic transformations in the Studio area in recent years with a major adoption of some Adobe technologies- maybe that area had been significantly streamlined even before this year?
That said, I was also surprised when I was told that the travel division now has little more than 100 employees - maybe you could call your contact(s) to shed some further light?
If I recall correctly, divisional boundaries often made a clear distinction between "Travel" and "Cruise" from time to time over the years. So maybe the 100 staff number quoted does not include those employees.
Either way, it is clearly a dramatically reduced headcount.
DoofusWinchmore,
I am told by ex-colleagues that since the end of March all of Saga's offices have been closed with everyone now successfully working from home.
This is with the sole exception of Enbrook Park that, outside of fully locked down periods, can operate with some core HQ functionality and can offer some very limited availability for hot desking - the latter subject to such extensive form-filling that few would wish to partake.
The Middleburg Square and Cheriton Park office buildings are definitely completely empty and unused.
I am also told that the travel division now has little more than 100 employees after 2 heavy rounds of redundancies during the course of this year.
Please feel free to confirm with your "quick call".
All in all, I'd imagine that operating costs going forward are going to be far lower than they have been for many years - probably going back to when you or I worked there! :)
... part two.
However, the antibody ****tail will not be rolled out to a large proportion of the population because it is far more expensive and difficult to make than vaccines. While a vaccine costs just a few pounds, a dose of antibodies can cost hundreds of pounds.
But there are around 350,000 people in Britain who are unable to be vaccinated so, if successful, they are likely to be offered the treatment.
Phase Three trials on 1,000 volunteers are taking place at nine sites across Britain, but the team is planning to recruit a further 4,000 participants globally, and researchers are urgently calling on more people to volunteer.
Sir Mene also said the Oxford vaccine team was still "on track" to have final results before Christmas, adding: "We're still hoping we might be able to dose, if we show the vaccine is safe and effective, towards the end of the year.
"We're not going to be able to vaccinate the whole population of the UK immediately. There is a large group of people who will have to wait a while to receive the vaccination."
Full article on this great news. Part one .....
UK trials antibody ****tail that could halt Covid outbreaks in care homes and on cruise ships
Sarah Knapton,
21 November 2020
An antibody ****tail that gives immediate protection against coronavirus and could bring outbreaks on cruise ships and in care homes to a halt is being trialled in Britain.
The treatment has been developed by pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca from Covid-fighting antibodies found in the blood of a patient who survived the virus.
With a vaccine, the body takes around six weeks to develop immunity after an injection. With the ****tail, it is thought that the antibodies are able to fight off the virus immediately and may last for a year before needing to be replenished.
The Government hopes the treatment could protect hundreds of thousands of people who cannot be vaccinated because their immune systems are compromised.
It could also be used to prevent vulnerable patients from catching Covid in hospitals and care homes, or be issued quickly to cruise ship passengers and crew should a traveller be diagnosed with the virus.
The first trial participant is due to be given the drug at North Manchester General Hospital on Saturday, and results are expected in the spring.
Describing how the drug could be used, Sir Mene Pangalos, an executive vice president at AstraZeneca, said: "So imagine a cruise ship that has an outbreak where half the people have been vaccinated and half haven't because of access to the vaccine. You'd be able to go and immunise the whole cruise ship with this antibody and everyone will be protected straight away.
"Or where there has been a case confirmed in a care home, you will go and immunise everybody in the care home to protect them from progressing on with the disease, or in a hospital or a school. Or someone comes to the doctor or hospital with confirmed Covid disease and symptoms, and we treat them with the antibody and then they go home and we hopefully stop them getting sicker.
"There's also going to be a significant number of people, even in a world where vaccines are highly effective, who will not respond to vaccines, or will not take vaccines, and so having potential therapeutics I think it is important."
Kate Bingham, who chairs the Government's Vaccine Taskforce, said the antibody ****tail could also be used to give front line workers immediate protection, adding: "It will work instantly, so there may be examples of the military or healthcare workers or people that need immediate protection, and you could use this antibody ****tail, as opposed to waiting. This is part of the portfolio to protect the whole UK."
The team at AstraZeneca screened thousands of antibodies to find the most effective at fighting coronavirus, and eventually used two types from a Covid survivor who had an extremely potent immune response.
Roxbury,
When doing your calculations you must either compare:
Pre-rights issue company value vs Pre-rights shares in issue
OR
Post-rights issue company value vs Post-rights shares in issue
Taking your example.
"Current share price £1.98
So current MCAP = 1.98 x 139,594,769 = £276M"
>>> Fine - that's indisputable.
"To get the OLD pre-dilution share price we have to divide it by the pre-dilution number of shares.
So
276,397,643/1,122,003,328 = 24.36p"
>>> That is wrong. You are comparing:
Post-rights issue company value vs Pre-rights shares in issue
"So £1.98 pre-dilution is 24.36p FACT."
>>> Therefore that is also wrong.
You must discount the net £140 Million cash added into the business at the rights issue before making that calculation, so:
(276,397,643-140,000,000)/1,122,003,328 = 12.16p
So £1.98 pre-dilution is 12.16p.
You really must take into account that £140,000,000 - actual money in the real world - was NOT available, accessible, extant, visible, there at all - when making calculations against the pre-dilution shares issue of 1,122,003,328.
All in my humble opinion and I'm happy to be persuaded otherwise.
It really doesn't matter to be honest, but you seem to repeat the same errors each time this subject comes up.
You are correct.
A few weeks ago, I calculated the actual price that Roger De Haan paid for his shares as 18.09p per share in old money - or £2.713 in new money.
Roger’s First Firm Placing: 224,400,000 @ £0.27 = £60,588,000
Roger’s Second Firm Placing: 124,183,026 @ £0.12 = £14,901,963
Roger’s Placing and Open Offer: 204,250,307 @ £0.12 = £24,510,037
Which constitutes the full purchase of 552,833,333 shares for (exactly) £100,000,000 at an average of 18.09p per share and constituting 26.40 per cent of the Enlarged Share Capital.
18.09p consolidated at 15:1 equates to £2.713.
I hope that helps.
RoxburyHouse,
If I may, I'll try to assist.
You say: "The figures in Column A are today’s share price and are calculated using the actual Mcap and number of shares both which I have no control over. Remember Column A and B are today’s share price. The only difference is that one is divided by 15."
>>> That is correct.
You then say: "It’s ridiculous when people say to get the old share price you simply divide the existing share price by 15."
>>> No it's not. You've only just stated that the only difference between Column A and B is that one is divided by 15. That is correct because the only difference is the consolidation.
However, columns A, B and D seem reasonable to me. It's column C where the unintentional misrepresentation occurs.
You are mis-combining the consolidation with the capital raise - which, to be fair, is easily done. I mean no criticism here.
Your Column C is non-sensical as it is applying a multiple on one side of the calculation without accounting for the reason of the financial event on the other side.
Taking one line from your example columns A to C:
145.00 9.60 18.00
I believe that the correct value in column C properly reconciling the capital raised is:
145.00 9.60 5.556
(Just to be clear, below is all adjusted for consolidation of course)
Your figure of 18 .00 is derived by choosing ONLY to acknowledge the effect of pre-dilution number of shares in issue. But to sensibly revert to the pre-dilution scenario, one ALSO has to discount the net £140 million cash added into the business (BECAUSE IT WASN'T PRESENT BEFORE). This needs to be extracted from the prevailing market cap before division by pre-dilution share issue to make correct comparisons.
Correcting this calculation (at base 145p) gives an effective share price of around 5.56p (not 18p) which clearly illustrates the massive under pricing of this stock. "The city" has got this wrong in a big way in my opinion and will correct over the months ahead.
The market cap of this company today is roughly £200 million. Take away that net £140 million cash added this month yields just £60 million - this last fortnight's share price has been the lowest in the company's public history and is absurd.
This is ludicrously undervalued in my opinion.
So, for your calculations, always consider that in its simplest form, that £140 Million cash is real money that has been delivered into a real business and must be recognised as such when doing "old / new money" comparisons.
To ignore its effect is utter folly, as in the old scenario that huge amount of money was not present, whilst in the new scenario it is present.
No. I don't need a calculator.
I was rather simply referring to the hick post by kidsandcastles with that incredible, insightful "I reckon" level of analysis.
My core mathematical and analysis skills, at the purest level or - at a push - at my more practised applied variations of theoretical mechanics, can surely be no match for the much vaunted derivatives of the "I reckon" or "what's this divided by 15" offered by some experts on here ... some presumably on day release from a provincial zoo park.
Anyhow, let us forget mathematics for analysing these meagre endeavours.
A simple predicate calculus is all you need when evaluating such truth propositions.
Have a great weekend.
Coronavirus: Canary Islands added to UK's safe travel list
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54650531
UK tourists seeking winter sun have been given a boost, after Spain's Canary Islands and the Maldives were added to the government's safe travel list.
It means visitors will no longer need to quarantine for 14 days on their return, with the Greek island of Mykonos and Denmark also deemed safe.
The changes apply to anyone arriving in the UK after 04:00 BST on Sunday.
I'm not sure who that was, but you can currently see (from the website, Prices and Availability button) that there are only 212 cabins remaining for the inaugural cruise including just 12 of the more expensive Mid Ship Suites, 5 of which have sold in the last 2 weeks.
I'd imagine that booking rates will start to ramp up as cruise visibility continues to increase in the manner observed this week.