Member Info for FJGooner

Good morning EJ (Alas Smith),

Many thanks for your excellent posts, as ever.

But just a couple of points, if I may.

Re your: "His career moved him from taking over the reins of Saga after the death of his father ..."

Roger was already the CEO of Saga when I started working there in the mid-1980s. His father Sidney passed away in 2002 - I think he retired from Saga around 1984.

Re your: "having lots of money (consequential on fathers acumen) does not qualify de Haan as a competent manager"

Saga developed and expanded massively under Roger's excellent leadership. In the mid-1980s, we worked from one old dilapidated mansion in Enbrook Park with a shabby car park for about 40 or 50 cars. By the time he sold the business, that site had been transformed to a huge, state of the art headquarters and we had several further satellite offices in the surrounding areas. The transformation was hugely impressive.

The organisation had not only greatly expanded, but had become far more professional, progressive and moved into the emerging digital sales & communication channels. Several completely new business areas were developed creating a truly diverse model for Saga.

Business revenues and profits had been consistently rising strongly and that is why Roger was able to sell the business for £1.35 billion and subsequently enjoyed "having lots of money".

I can personally assure you that he is a hugely capable leader and certainly qualifies as a "competent manager".

Today's news is great and, I must admit, a massive surprise to me.

Roger De Haan will completely turn this around. Have no doubt about that.

Unlike the shorters who know nothing at all about Saga, I worked for this company for nearly a quarter of a century.

During my earlier career at Saga, I was in several meetings with Roger leading up to 2004. He is an incredibly strong character and will ensure that the CEO and the top team at Saga will deliver for the Company, its investors, its employees and the towns in which it is by far the largest employer.

Everyone will be happy with this great news.

I haven't worked for Saga for several years now, but I would certainly consider returning now Sir Roger is going to be back in charge.

Many other ex-employees will feel the same, so Saga will have access to a highly talented pool of professionals once the economy starts to recover.

Personally, I don't care whether Tuesdays's share price is 14p, 27p or higher.

A floor has now been established under this business and, with that, concerns of liquidity have been extinguished.

If the CEO does not perform as required, he'll be gone as quickly as the last set of useless, beige, non-entities.

Saga has now been re-born as it always should have been - a De Haan thoroughbred company.

So, to put the likely Brent average of $75 for this Q2 or for $90 potentially in 2020 into perspective, recall from the slides that accompanied the 4th Quarter Results the very clear Shell metric: Price sensitivity: +/ -$10 Brent = +/ -~$6 billion CFFO ... along with the commentary in those results .... "This performance delivered around $28 billion in free cash flow in 2017 with oil at $54 per barrel. By 2020, we expect to deliver between $25 and $30 billion in organic free cash flow, at an oil price of $60 per barrel, real terms 2016. While this outlook is ambitious, our performance in 2017 gives us confidence that it is realistic. We have close to $10 billion in cash flow from new projects still to be delivered in the 2018 to 2020 timeframe, growth across our portfolio and continued cash delivery from operational improvements." ---- So we have: Oil price of $60 per barrel, real terms 2016 --> $25 to $30 billion in organic FCF Or for current average Brent prices look set to be around $75 per barrel: Oil price of $75 per barrel, real terms 2016 --> $34 to $39 billion in organic FCF Or for $90 a barrel as predicted by Morgan Stanley above: Oil price of $90 per barrel, real terms 2016 --> $43 to $48 billion in organic FCF So your �30 price for RDSB may seem pretty cheap sometime soon. FJ :)

You suggest �30 by August - well, why not? We're exactly halfway through Q2 and Brent stands at an average of $73.35 and sits currently way higher at $79.12, so we could be looking at a Q2 average of $75 or more. Levels not seen since 2014 Q4. And Morgan Stanley predicted today that Brent crude oil will average $90 a barrel in 2020 as demand for middle distillates like diesel and jet fuel grows. MS suggest that stockpiles of distillates are nearing five-year lows and that refineries are scrambling to satisfy growing consumption. Morgan Stanley also cautions that new pollution rules in the shipping industry will only increase demand for distillates. FJ

At last, here we go - happy days. FJ :) ---------------------------- Https://www.chron.com/business/energy/article/Crude-surges-as-Xi-allays-trade-war-fears-Saudis-12822346.php Crude surges as Xi allays trade war fears, Saudis seek $80 oil Jessica Summers, Bloomberg Published 2:55 pm, Tuesday, April 10, 2018 Oil jumped to the highest since 2014 as China struck a conciliatory tone on trade and Saudi Arabia was said to seek higher prices. Futures in London jumped by almost 4 percent on Tuesday as equities also climbed. Chinese President Xi Jinping said zero-sum mentalities were "out of place" and backed dialogue to resolve disputes, dissipating fears of a trade spat with the U.S. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is said to want to get prices near $80 to fund spending and support the valuation of its state oil giant's initial public offering. "It's a risk-on type day," said Bob Yawger, director of futures at Mizuho Securities USA Inc. in New York. "The biggest correlation is to the equity markets." In two days, the oil market dispelled the pessimism of two weeks largely dominated by concerns over U.S.-China tensions and a buildup of stockpiles at America's largest distribution hub in Oklahoma. Brent for June settlement climbed as much $2.69 to $71.34 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange, the highest since December 2014, after settling at $71.04. West Texas Intermediate for May delivery rose $2.09 to settle at $65.51 a barrel, the highest in two weeks, on the New York Mercantile Exchange. 'Opening Up' The Chinese leader pledged a "new phase of opening up" in a long-planned speech that was closely watched by traders for any response to U.S. President Donald Trump's plan to hit hundreds of Chinese products with duties. Following Xi's speech, Asian stocks and U.S. futures jumped. In conversations with OPEC delegates and oil market participants, Saudi officials had been careful to avoid pinpointing an exact price target. Yet people who have spoken to them said the inescapable conclusion from the conversations was that Riyadh is aiming for $80. "The day-to-day price action that we've seen is really about risk appetite and not so much fundamentals," said Michael Wittner, the head of commodities research at Societe Generale SA in New York. The S&P 500 Energy Index climbed as much as 4 percent, the biggest intraday advance since November 2016. The best performers include Devon Energy Corp., TechnipFMC Plc and Newfield Exploration Co., all posting gains of more than 6 percent. In the U.S., crude inventories probably fell by 1.25 million barrels last week, according to a Bloomberg survey ahead of government data that will be released on Wednesday. That would follow a surprise decrease of 4.6 million barrels a week earlier. Stockpiles held at the key Cushing, Oklahoma, pipeline hub likely rose by 2 million barrels last week, a fo

... all this flying in the face of portfolio diversification, that is. :) I added a further chunk of RDSB this week, but was already 100% RDSB. Why? Well, Shell is a company that has diversification built in since it operates in most geographical parts of the globe and spans every sector of energy from discovery to fuel cap. And the visibility in its core markets is very high, which gives confidence to long-term positions. For instance, we can currently see that 2018 Q1 Average Brent is currently running at $67.09 compared to an oil price of $60 per barrel that was given as a benchmark guidance in the 4th Quarter Results: "This performance delivered around $28 billion in free cash flow in 2017 with oil at $54 per barrel. By 2020, we expect to deliver between $25 and $30 billion in organic free cash flow, at an oil price of $60 per barrel, real terms 2016. While this outlook is ambitious, our performance in 2017 gives us confidence that it is realistic. We have close to $10 billion in cash flow from new projects still to be delivered in the 2018 to 2020 timeframe, growth across our portfolio and continued cash delivery from operational improvements." And we know from the slides that accompanied the 4th Quarter Results last month that price sensitivity varies from that benchmark guidance of $60: +/ -$10 Brent = +/ -~$6 billion CFFO So data for 2018Q1 is clearly pointing to a very strong performance. And that's why I sleep easy on a 100%, balls-out, all-in approach on this one. All the best, FJ

Yep - this is going to be fun. Crude Oil WTI Futures are now up 2.79% to $63.45. Brent is surging to $69.25. ----------- Coverage on tonight's API data: Oil Prices Rise After API Reports Staggering Crude Oil Draw By Julianne Geiger - Jan 09, 2018, 3:43 PM CST Https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Rise-After-API-Reports-Staggering-Crude-Oil-Draw.html The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a staggeringly large draw of 11.19 million barrels of United States crude oil inventories for the week ending January 5, marking six large draws in as many weeks, according to the API data. Analysts, had expected a much smaller drawdown of 3.89 million barrels in crude oil. Last week, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a large draw of 4.992 million barrels of crude oil, along with an increase in gasoline inventories of 1.87 million barrels. This week, the API is reporting another build in gasoline inventories of 4.338 million barrels for the week ending January 5. Analysts had expected a smaller, 2.625-million-barrel build. WTI and Brent soared to three-year highs on Tuesday before the data on the expectation that crude oil inventories would decline yet another week, along with EIA�s updated forecast for oil demand growth that shows an increase over previous figures of 100,000 bpd. WTI was trading up 2.33% (+$1.44) at $63.17 at 1:51pm EST. The Brent benchmark was trading up 1.76% (+$1.19) at $68.97. Still analysts are cautious of its long-term prospects as US shale is expected to continue to eat away at OPEC�s production cut efforts as prices rise, although that caution appears to be weakening somewhat as prices continue to hold. Distillate inventories also saw a build this week of 4.685 million barrels, against a forecast of a 1.464-million-barrel build. Inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma, site decreased by 2.516 million barrels this week.

... the fun should be starting soon as our great 2017Q4 results get closer to release (in 3 weeks' time). Not to mention that 2018Q1 has got off to a superb start with oil prices at multi-year highs - currently nearing WTI at $63 and Brent pushing toward $69. Happy days. FJ

.... How many sectors have such wonderful visibility? This is why I have focussed so strongly on this sector - you can see such a high percentage of events coming ahead of time. Of course there is an offset between higher crude reducing refining and other downstream margins and volatility affecting trading profits. But that's the whole point of being an integrated oil supermajor - to smooth the inescapable commodity curve. Furthermore, we can't foresee geo-political nonsense (such as a potential North Korean conflict, trade wars, regime change - like the current Saudi royal family purges etc.), shifts in legislation or, god forbid for reasons beyond investment concerns alone, major oil spills or other environmental disasters. By the way, as a long-term and heavy investor in this sector (I'm well over 18 stone), I rank environmental concerns hugely before profit. I was delighted with our exit from the Arctic nonsense and I want us to exit Nigeria as pipeline integrity there is virtually impossible due to both terrorism and due to localised, polluting theft. Sadly, I don't think we'll be doing so any time soon, but I can only hope. A company's integrity has to be beyond challenge in an ideal world. Happily, Shell is clearly far more committed to greener technology than any other global player and that's why my investment remains here and I remain an advocate with the caveats expressed. In that respect, the acquisition of this EV facilitator really is fantastic - have a read - this is definitely money well spent for the long-term future: Https://newmotion.com/en NewMotion is in pole position for the expansion of EV fleet and personal use across Europe (mainly NL right now) and the UK, no doubt dovetailing with our branded EV expansion. I'm quite tempted to get a charge point installed at my own home by them (or us) for less than �450 for when guests visit. I doubt Exxon would ever have thought of such an enlightened approach. Hopefully, Shell will replace Exxon at the top of the global table for energy companies in February when these Q4's hit the headlines. Back to the data - the key thing is that you CAN see the core data flows and that these give a very good idea of what will be coming the next quarterly results. Shell themselves have helpfully offered guidance of what a $10 shift in Brent means for earnings - so yet again, visibility. Take the average Brent price on New Year's Eve, apply that to your data model and then go out to celebrate a superb year. For disclosure, I remain "Never sell Shell". All the best, FJ :)

Looking at crude price data for Q4 so far: Date Price Open High Low Vol. Change % Nov 13, 2017 63.13 63.65 63.7 62.62 0 -0.61 Nov 10, 2017 63.52 63.8 64.27 63.35 307.97K -0.64 Nov 09, 2017 63.93 63.52 64.25 63.26 319.86K 0.69 Nov 08, 2017 63.49 63.69 64.64 62.95 418.07K -0.31 Nov 07, 2017 63.69 64.12 64.65 63.5 389.46K -0.9 Nov 06, 2017 64.27 62.27 64.44 62.08 356.99K 3.54 Nov 03, 2017 62.07 60.88 62.23 60.6 272.74K 2.39 Nov 02, 2017 60.62 60.5 60.86 60.02 289.30K 0.21 Nov 01, 2017 60.49 61.07 61.7 60 337.76K -1.43 Oct 31, 2017 61.37 60.86 61.41 60.53 29.12K 0.77 Oct 30, 2017 60.9 60.66 61 60.14 168.54K 0.76 Oct 27, 2017 60.44 59.37 60.65 58.82 209.89K 1.92 Oct 26, 2017 59.3 58.42 59.55 58.05 232.28K 1.47 Oct 25, 2017 58.44 58.44 58.74 57.85 260.55K 0.19 Oct 24, 2017 58.33 57.41 58.57 57.04 334.68K 1.67 Oct 23, 2017 57.37 57.95 58.05 57.27 353.07K -0.66 Oct 20, 2017 57.75 57.32 57.94 56.6 369.89K 0.91 Oct 19, 2017 57.23 58.24 58.3 57.02 430.67K -1.58 Oct 18, 2017 58.15 58.16 58.54 57.74 329.33K 0.47 Oct 17, 2017 57.88 57.78 58.35 57.18 405.22K 0.1 Oct 16, 2017 57.82 57.28 58.47 57.12 341.78K 1.14 Oct 13, 2017 57.17 56.44 57.57 56.34 332.60K 1.64 Oct 12, 2017 56.25 56.74 56.83 55.88 339.53K -1.21 Oct 11, 2017 56.94 56.56 57.09 56.14 310.14K 0.58 Oct 10, 2017 56.61 55.78 56.91 55.73 290.34K 1.47 Oct 09, 2017 55.79 55.5 55.98 55.06 301.15K 0.31 Oct 06, 2017 55.62 56.99 57.28 55.13 395.65K -2.42 Oct 05, 2017 57 55.77 57.24 55.7 379.30K 2.15 Oct 04, 2017 55.8 55.67 56.2 55.38 330.85K -0.36 Oct 03, 2017 56 56.1 56.4 55.7 275.42K -0.21 Oct 02, 2017 56.12 56.73 56.76 55.5 352.05K -2.47 Highest:64.65 Lowest:55.06 Difference:9.59 Average:59.14 Change %:9.71 This data set tells us that thus far in Q4, Brent is averaging $59.14 and has been consistently averaging higher day-on-day since Oct 26th, so this average is trending higher right now. This compares to the Q3 results that were predicated on Brent at an average price of $52. If you were to assume that Brent traded no higher and no lower than the current weekly average of $63.55 from today until Q4 ends on 31/12/2017, the average price of Brent will be around $61.48 compared to Q3's $52 - 18% higher. Therefore you can either project what you think Brent will trade at - whether higher or lower than the current $63.44 from today until Q4 and determine what your projected Q4 average price for Brent will be. I honestly cannot predict whether Brent prices will go up or down from here on any more than a toss of a sixpence. So I can't predict whether prices will trend higher, lower or stay roughly as is - and I don't need to. I will just watch the data accumulate day by day until we near the end of the year and then, there you have it. A full data set will be available a whole 5 weeks before Q4 and finals are reported so that you can feed into your mathematical models for this stock. .....

How dare you! But, of course you are 100% right and I am ludicrously over-exposed in my portfolio to RDSB - currently to the tune of 100%. Now, let me be clear - that is a moronic thing to do and I would never recommend anyone doing such a foolish thing. Please, don't do it. In my defence though, I decided some time ago that Shell was the core target of my investment strategy within the energy sector of my portfolio. At that time I was not mad. I researched the sector, its history, its geo-political context and Shell's space within that. I then evaluated all other integrated energy companies in the US and Europe, and drew the conclusion that Shell had the broadest appeal in terms of history, dividend stability and social conscience. Once centred on Shell, I have sourced and read dozens of books ( yes books, NOT links to web pages ) to develop an understanding that would otherwise only be attainable by employment within the sector. I probably went over the top, sourcing intra-industrial texts back to the 1960s - 3 more this week alone. And reading more general texts on the subject area and related issues. Having said that occasionally some excellent content does crop up on the web - have a look at minutes 16 to 21 on here: Https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2017-11-10/the-next-shale-revolution-video So I won't apologise for this sharp focus. But, equally, I would not recommend this behaviour to others. Such myopia as mine can go badly wrong if you don't react to negative events (if they happen). Having said that my approach has made me rather rich (in pure monetary terms) and I leave my investments in RDSB with utter confidence. Good luck whatever your approach. Investment takes thought. Thinking is good. And that is what makes this wonderful world of ours go round. FJ :)

Https://uk.webfg.com/news/broker-recommendations/shell-to-turn-off-scrip-dividend-sooner-rather-than-later-barclays-says--2952598.html Shell to turn off scrip dividend 'sooner rather than later', Barclays says Analysts at Barclays reaffirmed their positive stance on shares of Royal Dutch Shell pointing to management's ability to 're-set' the outfit's cash break-even level lower, the likelihood that it would soon be able to scrap its scrip dividend and the 6% dividend yield on offer. The key, they explained, was management's decision to avail themselves of lower capital expenditures, reduced operating expenditures, divestments and new project start-ups to cut the company's cashflow break-even level of oil to $50 a barrel. That was so even after paying out a full cash dividend. Over the past four years, Shell had cut the oil price needed to cover both capex and payouts by nearly $80 a barrel, Barclays explained. Yes, at 25% gearing remained above the firm's targetted 20%. However, Barclays judged that: "continued strong organic cashflow and further divestment proceeds should give management the required line of sight to lower gearing that it needs to turn off the optional scrip dividend sooner rather than later." In fact, that would likely be the focus of Shell's capital markets day on 28 November, they said. The market would also be keen for further clarity on the company's ability to offer a "world class investment case", they said. On the basis of all of the above, Barclays reiterated its 'overweight' recommendation and 2850p target price for the shares.

This may also be of interest as Shell ramps up its LNG capacity. I saw this interview on Bloomberg TV a couple of days ago - it's well worth a watch as Tellurian Chairman Charif Souki foresees a serious LNG shortage by 2020. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2017-08-09/tellurian-s-souki-sees-lng-shortage-by-2020-video See also: http://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/natural-gas/liquefied-natural-gas-lng.html

See also: http://www.shell.com/about-us/major-projects/appomattox.html

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3288800-shells-appomattox-hull-sets-sail-u-s-gulf-mexico Shell's Appomattox hull sets sail for U.S. Gulf of Mexico Aug. 11, 2017 7:12 PM ET|By: Carl Surran •The massive four-column hull of Royal Dutch Shell’s (RDS.A, RDS.B) Appomattox field development project has set sail from South Korea to Texas for completion of construction. •Shell says the fabrication on the deepwater Gulf of Mexico project is now more than 60% complete, and that it can still earn a profit from the 125K-ton platform with oil prices below $50/bbl after cutting costs by more than 20% since the project was sanctioned two years ago. •Shell's deepwater business remains a growth priority, and the company expects its deepwater production to grow to 900K-plus boe/day by 2020 from already discovered, established reservoirs. •Shell says Appomattox remains on track to start producing oil by the end of this decade and is expected to add ~175K boe/day to the company’s total production when it reaches peak production.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4097945-royal-dutch-shell-buy-just-one-energy-stock Royal Dutch Shell: If I Could Buy Just One Energy Stock Aug. 11, 2017 9:55 AM ET Ray Merola Summary •In 2017, most energy stocks have under performed. •Amidst the castaways, there's a Super Major gem hiding in plain sight. •It's a turnaround story wrapped in a 6.7% dividend yield. Of all the companies I follow, one 2Q 2017 earnings release stood out. The company blew out Street estimates. Management continued to fulfill promises to investors. Remarkably, the stock resides in 2017's most downtrodden neighborhood: Energy. The company is Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) (RDS.B).

Good luck to you Misca. I hope that your move works out for you. However, I have held Shell through far more risky times and will continue to do so. My RDSB shares will have to be forcibly pried out of my glowing, irradiated hands. :)

Catherine Hughes, who has been a Non-executive Director since June 1st this year, bought today 5,500 RDSB at 21.63957 for £119,017. Now that seems like a pretty confident move. FJ :)

See also: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HcHhiATEogI#t=181.9096786 This incredible facility can stay at sea for 25 years before needing to return for dry dock maintenance and can produce enough natural gas to completely meet the needs of a city larger than Hong Kong. Great stuff.

... analyst at Raymond James Financial Inc. in Houston. “Pricing is always a proverbial black box for multinational oil and gas producers, and it is not something that companies can themselves control.” While benchmark Brent crude rose more than 50 percent last year to more than $50 a barrel, prices are down about 9 percent in 2017 as a resurgence in U.S. shale production threatens an attempt by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies to eliminate a global oversupply. Debut Quarter In his debut quarter, Exxon Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods is focusing on prospects in places as diverse as offshore Guyana and the New Mexico desert to replenish reserves that last year underwent the deepest cut in Exxon’s modern history. Woods’ predecessor Rex Tillerson retired in January to become U.S. secretary of state. Two weeks later, the company announced the $5.6 billion purchase of acreage in New Mexico. The company’s board expects to make a final investment decision on the 1.4-billion barrel Liza discovery off Guyana’s coast around the middle of this year, said Vice President Jeff Woodbury. Profit from Exxon’s overseas production climbed $1.51 billion, offsetting a loss from U.S. wells. U.S. crude output climbed 2.6 percent during the quarter as oil production dropped in every other region of the world. Exxon’s cash balance was up 32 percent during the quarter to $4.9 billion. First-quarter net income rose to $4.01 billion, or 95 cents a share, from $1.81 billion, or 43 cents, a year earlier, according to the statement. Exxon had been expected to post per-share profit of 86 cents, based on the average of 20 analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Chevron Slims Down Chevron curbed operating expenses by 14 percent and drove drilling outlays down 30 percent during the January-to-March period, the San Ramon, California-based company said in a statement on Friday. The company reiterated plans to lift full-year output by 4 percent to 9 percent, excluding the impact of asset sales. For Chevron, 2016 was a painful year. The company posted its first annual loss in at least 36 years and failed to replace all the crude and natural gas it pumped with new discoveries. As a result, Chief Executive Officer John Watson vowed to cut spending by 15 percent this year to cope with the lingering cash flow impacts of the worst oil market crash in a generation. Watson has also said he’s devoting 75 percent of the 2017 drilling budget to U.S. shale fields and other projects that will generate cash within two years. That’s a titanic shift for an operator renowned for its proficiency in constructing massive, intricate crude and gas projects that produce for decades. On Friday, the company swung to a profit of $2.68 billion, or $1.41 a share, in the first quarter, compared with a loss of $725 million, or 39 cents, a year earlier, according to the stateme