Member Info for Fishb0n3

Based on the numbers we all see value here.

Do you think Cosmens doesn’t see the same think ?

This is their chance to buy this very cheap and even stated in 2009 that Mobico would not succeed as a public company and the reason they haven’t went for it in all this years is because the market was on a tear for 10 years.

We might have another bad set of results however the half year results would show the progress.

Now I bet we would not have a chance to see those results and this will be taken out by July IMO.

I will admit I was dead wrong if this doesn’t happen in the next 3 months.

The share price hasn't fallen to this levels..it has been brought to this level.

Everything the happened with the German part of business has been sorted a long time ago.

There is something else happening here and it will be revealed in due course however none of us who have an average around £1 would make a lot of profit and whatever happens, it will before the share price will bounce.

Hope I am wrong however the signs are everywhere and I have experienced something similar, it feels like a dejavu.

You cannot blame yourself for investing in this 1.5 years ago as it went from a decent company to a clown show.

Yep...we might have a black swan event soon depending how the conflict in Middle East evolves.

Around 58% or about there last time I have checked.

Yep.....50's here we come.

i think the management is to blame here.

a lot of low margin businesses recovered nicely.

take for example card factory.....when it was around 30p everyone said they would go bust.in comes mgmt change and good execution = share price trebles

then greencore.....low margin , good execution share price doubles.

i have owned both of them...just had more in this **** show with one of the worst mgmt teams i have seen in the last 4 years.

it will just be a long wait and to be honest i made my peace with it.

Cosmens*

I don't see this going bk either...the chance of that happening are very slim.

Not with the money they have on the balance sheet and with cosines buying 25% of this...they know lot more than we do.

I think you are right and we are stuck with this until 25 at least.

I know we all speculate on takeover and whatnot however we have to take in account the possibility that non of it will happen.

At this point I am immune at any percentage drop because we have seen a few large drops already... it just doesn't bother me anymore so I am just gonna wait and see what happens.

I am done adding anyway....I have enough shares and I will just wait...3 years its my maximum hold time for this one.

With the price around 60's a takeover of around 110p will get accepted....I will be surprised if Cosmen don't bid on this before the results.

Just my thoughts.

No volume in the last few days so maybe Cosmens stopped buying.

To be honest I don't think anyone else is interested in this share.

If NA is not being sold and there is no takeover bid I am afraid we will stay low for quite a while.

Same here Poker....we have to wait.

All the best to you to.

I think the debt is against the assets of the company and if the assets move over surely the debt can be moved over as well.

And lets not forget there is still a decent amount of cash balance as well which will cover the interest for the next few years.

I don't think someone will take out a bond just to close it next year, I might be wrong its just this makes more sense to me.

That is true Poker however what stops them putting in a provision with the lenders in which they stipulate that they will take over the debt and pay it off at a latter date once NA has been sold.

Lenders do not necessarily want their money back...they want the interest for as long as possible then they would like to be paid back...My opinion.

I think the debt can be transferred to the new owner fairly easily no matter of the proportions.

Correct me if I am wrong.

Think about it this way.

If you have a huge portfolio and a share in which you have 0.5% lets say goes wrong at some point you sell and move on without affecting your overall performance very much and most people who are in charge of the smaller investments in this hedge funds don't even do a comprehensive analysis.

If you take out Azvalor which is basically Cosmen 2.0 the next one with larger portion of their overall portfolio is Lancaster Investment Management LPP with 0.84% - now that's not exactly a core holding is it, and the rest are like 0.18%, 0.04% and so on.

This are the type of investments you write of against gains to lower your tax bill in a year like we've had IMO

Well M&G sold 30% on the cheap and no other holder has more than 6% and I assume 6% of Mobico is 0.000.. in those holders entire portfolio and You don't have to make your money back in the same way you lost it..they can just write it off against gains in many other shares they have.

If the Cosmens indeed would like to make an offer why would they wait until a sale for NA goes through? makes no sense in selling the only asset that can amortise their investment before they make that investment.

As far as we know " early stages" can mean f all....maybe they are just discussing it in their board room for all we know and based on the mgmt track record I think that is the case IMO.

They get 30% for dirt cheap, they offer a small premium for the rest wait a bit then sell NA and give Uk away cuz its broken anyway.

This seems logic to me however I not an expert.

Let's play a game ( for people who have a grasp o this share).

State your scenario on ow thinks will develop....will be interesting to see what people think.

Mine is shorts close by the end of April, Cosmen get to 30% ownership, an offer of around 110p comes along, Pi will be happy to get out (forced out basically).

The End.

The only reason this is not down 10% today is the buying pressure from Cosmen.

There was little free float left so how to you buy more if no one is selling ....