Member Info for Fishb0n3

There are not just big buys, there are also even bigger sells going through.

I looked deeper into cases like this in USA and 90% of these cases end in a mutual settlement out of court because public authorities hate the negative publicity of a federal trial over broken infrastructure.

There is usually not a huge payoff and usually comes out from insurance.

We do not need a huge payout, all we need is a small payoff with the 48 million moving straight to profit and the bonus is margin expansion for WeDriveYou as the drag is off.

Even if, let's say somehow, there is a liability for WeDriveYou, the 48 million provision is still there and if it doesn't move to profit on the balance sheet, it's there for any liability incurred which makes the termination of the contract as a non event short term and as an improvement long term.

If there is anyone that sees this from a different angled I would be interested to read it.

GenghisInvestor true, however there might not be a liability for Mobico and they could actually receive compensation.

They have opened the law suit against MWATA in January with a strong case from what I could find. The fact that the contract has been terminated so suddenly and a counter law suit was filled it might just be a way for MWATA to stop any retroactive compensation and instead to find a middle ground where both parties walk away and break clean with no major financial implication to any of the parties involved.

MWATA was in breach of contract initially and I don't see how that's changed overnight.

Maybe Rob295.

However when you move from a business with 3 out of 4 divisions loosing money to 2 profitable ones and 1 down to flat its a major progress.

And the market is forward looking so if there is a hint that in the remaining 3 years the Germany contract will actually make a small profit the credit rating should improve.

I am not saying the share price will double in a month I am just saying that for the first time in 4 years we are moving in the right direction operationally , after which the share price should follow.

The hardest way to make money in markets is shorting so seeing them increase doesn't mean they will actually be profitable.

Time will tell.

Plus the provision set aside for MWATA were 52 million out of which they only used 4 million.

The other 48 million or most of it can go back as profit on the balance sheet on the next report as the contract was terminated suddenly.

If Germany contract is being resolved and the war in Iran finds a resolution in the next few weeks I do not see how this stays at this valuation as it just doesn't make any sense.

We will find out in a month or 2 if Paco is completely turning this around or not.

I think they should keep WeDriveYou for now as is asset light and if it returns to a 7% margin it can bring a lot to the bottom line.

The fact that WMATA cancelled so suddenly it may be trying to force the Mobico mgmt to the negotiating table and drop the law suit for a 1 off settlement payment instead of just dragging this along and ending up paying more later on.

I don't think the market has really woken up to this news.

If Germany is been fixed by the end of next month than all the loosing money contracts and drags on the company are over.

You will be left with a margin recovery WeDriveyou, and a profitable ALSA.

Because Uk is part of ALSA now you will basically see a profitable USA operation, Profitable ALSA and maybe a flat to slightly profitable Germany.

This mgmt is taking all the right steps and they are doing it in a fast manner.

I think Cevesa is adding again.

I did a bit of research and it looks like once the have done their homework they tend to add considerably to their starting positions.

Also the volume increased as soon as the share price reached 0.22 and by the looks of it will carry on increasing bit by bit.

I just added again however I am not a trader and I have a lot of shares since 0.80-0.90 so just trying to accumulate more when the signals tell me so.

They actually own 26%, search a bit deeper.

And on top of that they loose the RCF with change of ownership and also the bonds will need to be paid off or re-financed with will require a huge capital.

Maybe with the backing of large fund they will be able to do so.

The Cosmens cannot buy a lot more here as under the UK Takeover Code, any shareholder that reaches a 30% shareholding must make a mandatory cash offer to buy all remaining shares at the highest price they paid in the previous 12 months.

Maybe that is a the plan....wait until 12 months passes on and the higher price will be around 17p....that will be a good strategy in which we are all shafted:)

In the end everyone makes his own decision regarding investments.

I see this as a high risk, high reward type of investment.

The lowest price a share can go to is 0 so you can loose all your money no matter on when you invest.

I have added to my core holding for the first time in the last 2 years and it might be a bad decision...time will tell.

Firepower you are like a broken record, I doubt anyone is paying any attention to you at all.

If I know nothing about this share that means you only know the ticker (feel free to google what that means).

Yes, I did had a short for a brief period as a hedge however as stated before my core holding stayed intact and it will stay for a long period unless they are taken private at some point.

Nice to see some of the old timers here as at some point this chat was full of useful info.

Yes, they can retrieve it through litigation and I have looked at previous cases settlements regarding WMATA. I would have said it will definitely be favourable until I saw that Unions are trying to prove their case in which that money will be better used if it's awarded to them instead. It will take a fair bit of time until it gets sorted.

You are right JG, the other 70m its payable to Mobico when targets are met and for that reason I don't think we can rely to much on that.

Exactly my point Paddy.

It will not happen tomorrow however if the negotiations with the PTA's are favourable some of the contract provisions in place can act as a non-cash improvement for Mobico.

It will be the same for the WMATA.

I think a lot rests on getting a favourable outcome on all this cash burning contracts and obviously make sure that it will not happen again.

Time will tell and this will need some to recover.

Been a while since I have posted here and deep underwater at this point however it amazes me how many people come here with comments like "sell this because the sucker is going down" with no material knowledge except a quick google search with the question "why is Mobico share price going down".

Lets just put some facts out there:

1. The most important is the resolution with the German PTA's-now its not legally bidding yet, however, in the call they mentioned that they are very happy with the result, so much so, that they are considering expanding in this area if suitable, which a few months ago was unthinkable.

2. The reset of the hybrid adds around 20mil to the interest payment which will be offset by cost-cutting and by getting rid of the interest on the £233.5m private placement, which will be paid off in May 2027 and for which there is already cash set aside.

3. On WeDriveYou they had 2 bleeding contracts: CARTA, which is now over, and WMATA which will need to be resolved and also does not have a huge impact on EBIT.

4. The UK is now fully integrated with ALSA however I don't think it will improve in any way and at best it will be non contributor

which is fine as long as it doesn't burn cash.

5. Every new contract is now analysed to its core to prevent another bleed and they are pivoting to asset light contracts which will be beneficial in the long run.

With Paco now in charge I think they will be a better run business as I remember an interview or a call from a few years back when he stated that will only accept to became the CEO when thinks are stable, and there is a path for conducting the business as a whole instead of being fragmented like it has been.

firepower, maybe some of your views have validity however saying that cosmen's are selling is bull****.

even if they wanna sell there is no f buyer for that amount of shares.

imo this will end up being a private company for a very cheap price before any recovery takes place.

or it could go into administration and stripped for parts which will end up with cosmens owning alsa which has always been plan.

like i have said, at this point i just wanna see what happens.

man, its been a while since i have posted here.

i probably have the biggest loss here and all the old school guys are problaby long gone i.e jg, wealthtrasfer and others.

for me there is no point selling now as it's worth **** and i will just let it go to 0 if that is what it will happen.

as i have always said all of this is done on purpose and if they were concerned about the share price there are so many ways they could have helped it from sinking so low.

the new management is yet again a puppet for conmen's to control.

at this point i am just curious if i am right or not so i'm just waiting to see what happens.

i wrote this off as an investment as i cannot used it against gains, as it's all in a isa so that' why i will never sell.

i know i will never recover here and i have learned an important lesson however a very expensive one.

in my opinion don't expect much from this management, they won't do anything constructive as they are just a piece on a way bigger puzzle.

Polish, it depends on the person's view and emotional state when it drops like a rock.

I have been a holder for 3 years and I haven't sold a share.

I have shorted at times and I remember Pedro laughing at me when I did as he was the optimistic one on this board.

I am not planning to sell any for years and if it goes to 0 so be it however I think it will recover it will just take a very long time.