Member Info for Fibonacci112

Why don't you sell then?

QUOTE

I do not think the deal will go ahead. Wintershall shareholders will not in the end see any benefit in it. Without the proposed deal (which it is all it is until approved) HBR would be trading much lower after this most dismal update.

UNQUOTE

Says the person who sold at the bottom and rolled into busted flush Enquest.

You posted a while back that Enquest have got deals of their own to announce. How is that going?

This - https://www.harbourenergy.com/news-and-media/latest-news/2021/share-consolidation-total-voting-rights/

QUOTE

and oil prices - ed dowd covers this - calling for a huge recession soon - so many people off sick - pub med - us gov paper - Inability to work following COVID-19 vaccination-a relevant aspect for future booster vaccinations

UNQUOTE

Go and tell it to the Lancet.

It is irrelevant to this board and you come across as being unhinged.

QUOTE

Dr. Phillip Buckhaults is a Professor at the University of South Carolina. He has a PhD in biochemistry and molecular biology and conducts cancer genomics research. What that effectively means is he and his team are specialists at detecting foreign pieces of DNA in places where they are not supposed to be. ETC, ETC, ETC

UNQUOTE

And?

What does that have to do with HBR?

Go and tell it to some doctors.

Note that no mention of further buybacks beyond:

“We will continue to return any excess capital to shareholders while investing in our existing portfolio to ensure a resilient and sustainable business and maintaining capacity for meaningful but disciplined M&A.”

Also note that it states:

“At the end of June, we completed the annual redetermination of our reserve-based lending (RBL) facility with the new borrowing base availability set at $1.1 billion compared to $2.7 billion previously, reflecting the full impact of the EPL.”

Whilst they clearly want to do deals, query whether they are going to have to be mergers rather than acquisitions if they are of any material size (eg Talos).

Yawn.

Give it a rest.

Nobody cares on this site.

Why don't you go and bother some doctors at thr Lancet? You might get more engagement. Or sectioned.

Sunday Times today - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sunak-to-pour-millions-into-north-sea-carbon-capture-7pp509s2c

Sunak to ^pour millions" into Acorn apparently as it is central to UK carbon capture.

Commentary on Warren Buffett this year in relation to buybacks - https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/02/25/warren-buffett-annual-letter-berkshire-hathaway-stock-buybacks.html

Here is the link to the BKH shareholder letter being discussed (obviously click on 2022) - https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/letters.html

Buffett looks to repurchase where the quoted BKH share price is lower than the enterprise value of BKH. HBR are doing similar. It is a good use of capital in the absence of a value accretive deal. If such a deal comes along for HBR, the buybacks may stop or be reduced as they then pay down debt on the purchase, which as page 18 of the investor presentation from June shows, is what they do.

Instead of posting lots of interesting things about HBR buying up largely British production (which they aren't going to do because why would anyone be mad enough to do so with the political landscape), why not have a look at page 14 of the 14 June 2023 Investor Presentation where they tell you what they are looking to buy and the criteria for buying it.

QUOTE

Rational basis being that insiders including directors and EIG were offloading all the way down from 530p whilst an army of rampers were sent out to stock forums to regurgitate how “crazy undervalued” HBR was and how a “short squeeze is imminent” to create bagholders.

It has been quite typical for daily volume to be well below 1m which means the majority of shares trading hands were actually just buybacks from HBR Treasury.

There has been little to no institutional interest for a very long time and Harbour themselves have been the only big buyer in town since last autumn.

When the buybacks have stopped the share price crashes through major support, for example 297p last year then 270p and then finally 250p.

UNQUOTE

The problem with this so called rational explanation is that institutional holders are set out in the attached - https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HARBOUR-ENERGY-PLC-120993565/company/#:~:text=Noble%20Group%20Holdings%20Ltd.&text=The%20Vanguard%20Group%2C%20Inc.&text=BlackRock%20Investment%20Management%20(UK)%20Ltd.&text=UBS%20Financial%20Services%2C%20Inc.

Over 50% is held institutionally.

You have also not answered the question. You have said it is rational am army of rampers have been active. Where is there any evidence that (1) these people are acting together; and/or (2) are doing so at the behest of the Chief Executive?

So, once again, why would the Chief Executive engage in a blatant criminal act to try and buy out PIs who hold next to no shares and cannot influence the company?

I appreciate it doesn't tie in with your narrative, but please provide a rational basis with evidence.

QUOTE

WellIntervention was posting exactly the same phrases at 450-500p...Along with TopCat, Tuxedo, Onthebeach, LuckyDog, Raging Bull, MissionImposs, NewYorker, LegalEagle and the dozen other ramping accounts sent out by Linda Crook :)

UNQUOTE

Given the extent of institutional investor holding in this share, why would she be "sending out ramping accounts"? This is a FTSE 250 share, not a tiddler on AIM. No private investor can influence this share, and certainlynone of the peopleon this board. So why would she seek to interfere with the market for shares in this company (which, in any event, is a criminal offence).

Please let us know what rational basis you have for making that assertion.

QUOTE

I think what is misunderstood is that if the prices remain under the threshold for 2 quarters then even if energy companies make profit they are only taxed at 40% instead of 75%. Now energy companies can make profits at $71 and 54ppthm if they increase their production. If HBR and others can now buy new licenses and make more investment in North Sea and increase their production then at $71, they still make good FCF with increased production and 40% tax.

This I think is a good move by the govt and good for the energy companies. At least the big funds will start moving their money back to oils as now there is a path for profits to be made without getting taxed at 75%?

UNQUOTE

No. The UK is uninvestable long term for exploration for oil and gas - carbon capture, different story. That is why HBR are dismissing employees in the UK and looking to move exploration to the US.

It will happen automatically under the rules of the share award scheme so that she receives the net of tax value of the benefit in kind provided by the shares in the award.

Mentalist

What has that got to do with buybacks? Helmet.

Why don't you look on the investor relations page Bill?

If HBR are really in the running, it is 75,000 bopd for USD 2 billion.

That's a lot of oil.

It could also be repaid within 18 months at current prices and would give huge optionality over what to do with the NS assets.

Do the Neptune deal (if they are still interested) , spin off the UK assets and concentrate on international.