Member Info for Fibonacci112

The bigger news is the ML holding.

What is going on there? They don't do Prop Trading, so that is one or more of their clients effectively controlling what is going on with the share price with 12.5% direct and indirect control of the voting rights

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you can't just say the SP should be "X" and the "Market" is punishing you, thats not how it works. More people are selling HBR stock than buying, simple as that. The current price is the "real price" , if you can't accept that then maybe you shouldn't be investing

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In other words, the rational market theory. Which has been shown repeatedly to be bulli****.

about who has been binning their shares …

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Analyst-Oil-To-Hit-120-Again-By-Winter.amp.html

120 bucks per barrel by November apparently

The Grauniad article a bit different to the utter bo!!ocks posted earlier.

Utter rubbish.

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It seems to me that quite a few on here are focusing on Liz Truss winning the current leadership contest [and then by inference cancelling the windfall tax], but it now seems increasingly likely that Boris may enter the race, given the Tory memberships shouts about it and the efforts of Lord Cruddas. I wonder how much the market is pricing in Boris joining the race, winning it, and then holding an election and narrowly winning that, and then keeping the WT in place.
It's not a done deal that he is out of it, it seems to me, and let's face it, neither Liz Truss or Rishi Sunak exactly inspires any of us, nor do they have Boris' personality. Plus, whilst Keir Starmer remains leader of the Labour Party, he remains a gift for the Conservatives, hence why they could still win a suddenly called General Election.
The main purpose of governing political parties after all is to win the next General Election, and I am sure if the party faithful think Boris is the better bet, he will get the green light to stay in charge.....

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Do you actually believe that?

Do you really think that the 1922 Committee are suddenly going to allow him back in, thereby breaching their own internal election rules?

"With roughly half of the swap position expiring on Friday suspect that this has more to do with M&A activity than the bank building a position. The SOL position also started building from April, just after the CNOOC announcement ."

Agree with this. BAML is not engaged in Prop trading so far as I am aware, so it would have to be client instruction.

It is already law -

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2022/40/enacted

It will not be repealed now that it is in force otherwise than due to either the sunset provision or due to normalisation of Oil prices. They need all the money they can get.

Baysil

Nothing to apologise about. The only reason I commented was because you were one of the few people on the site not on filter. It took me a while to work out what was going.

See also:

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/HBR/home-reit-to-join-ftse-250-as-vivo-energy-departs-9b3s0pkjow6ua3w.html

Read the 18 July GSK RNS which states

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Further to the FTSE Russell notices released on 15 June 2022 and 11 July 2022 and following the demerger of Haleon (UK, constituent) from GSK (UK, constituent) and related re-ranking, please see details of affected indexes and effective dates below:



Harbour Energy (UK, BMBVGQ3) will be deleted from the FTSE 100 index and added to the FTSE 250 Index.



Hochschild Mining (UK, B1FW502) will be deleted from the FTSE 250 index and added to the FTSE SmallCap Index.



All changes are effective from 21 July 2022.

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Today was last day in the FTSE 100. Hence likely adjustments to trackers and portfolios.

The volumes are a red herring. HBR come out of the FTSE 100 tomorrow (per GSK RNS on 18 July) and much of that will be trackers/funds adjusting their positions

Approximately 900m shares are in existence for this company. The price today has been influenced by about 320,000 shares being traded.

Wafer thin volume with huge effect.

The company is probably quite happy at the moment, being able to buy back shares for buttons.

A couple more days of this with our corporate broker hoovering up 1m+ shares per day and there may be a marked exit for those who have borrowed shares wanting to buy them back from the market so as to exit their positions. Let's see how it progresses, but could be an interesting back end to the week, all other things being equal (and nothing is at the moment).

Nice reaction from the share price

It also shows that they think the share price is lower than its intrinsic value. Why buy otherwise?

They set out their portfolio strategy at para. 3.2 of their 20/21 report, which is as follows:

"Rebalancing involves systematically buying assets that have decreased in price and selling assets that have increased in price, to keep the asset composition in our portfolio steady over time. When an asset class such as equities does particularly well, the rebalancing rule compels us to sell. Conversely, when equities do poorly, such as after the bursting of an economic bubble, rebalancing calls for us to buy"

Whilst we don't know what they bought in for, it suggests that they have made a good turn on their investment and are simply following their own rules.

Their return over time is pretty good, so don't knock them for getting out now.

In spite of the fundamentals, the valuation on this is not going to change for the good materially in the short-term with a big seller selling into the price.

So, don't sell unless you need to.

If you need to sell, then you are probably trading, price fluctuation is an occupational hazard thereof and you shouldn't complain when it bites.

Otherwise, in the short-term, the daily price movememt simply noise.

The rerate will probably start when the H1 results are out in September.

"Also we are already drilling in the area withn Tuna field and indonesia government won't screw us over like mexican government".

Or the British one.