Member Info for Fevertreeman

A fair while I think is 12-18 months...the sp will benefit from some anchoring around the FY results when we can remind the market of how far the business has come and +ve revenue story. Q1 could be quiet in absence of new wins, earliest I see sp starting to recover ground is Q2. Totally agree that sp should be 2x its current value, which would only make the co market cap a shade under £200m

Certainly didn't think the sp would be hovering at just about a 12-month low after all the progress the guys have made over last 12 months. Just goes to show that if you 'surprise' the market - unsignalled equity raise at knock down price + CY revenue downgrade - you get punished. I'm afriad that the climb back in sp is going to take a fair while, as imo the previously fine management reputation has taken a hit, and investors will be more wary now.

Finally s/o sensible who posts on Angle. Completely agree with you - I feel that Newland has been very gung-ho about the commercial prospects. It is disturbing that he persuaded new institutions on board at 80p (presumably on the promise of decent newsflow and contract announcements) and that the sp is 60 pc below that level, and we have had no meaningful commercial announcements, no senior managemwent strengthening, and no refreshment of a clapped out board of directors. One major risk not talked about is Newland himself - his seeming insistence that like Eon Musk or Clive Sinclair everything starts and finishes with him makes this company extraordinarily vulnerable to key man risk. Either his ego cant see it or alternatively he has an 'off ramp' lined up. Either way, Jefferies as advisers should be seriously concerned at the performance of the company since the FDA approval.

NAV has absolutely no utility here because unless and until Angostura Bitters actually delivers on the financing hes been promising for last 3-5 years & monies land in the bank a/c this remains a virtual business. Pointless talking about gold price if the infrastructure for remiving isnt in place ...typical Adams....where's the money Harry?

Agreed- and I think its 'all in'. Making a bid that isnt a knock-out and then allowing bid to lapse/walk away means they cant come bakc for another 12 months under the COde. So if you were Galleon why wait 12 months allowing Topps to increase its defences, etc....go hard, go now!

55-60p would be initial sighting shot.. sighting shots are always based off settled share price pre-announcement. Roughly average of last 90 days I'm guessing is around 4243p, so 60p is 42% premium just for starters. I dont think there will be any takers at that level, so 70p + is a poss.

Agreed ! I have pondered more on the Galleon announcement.

1. Galleon may have been wrong-footed by Topps going public & announcing they had backing of c40pc of existing s/holders. So will need to regroup and decide next move.
2. You can argue that Galleon has been massively stupid trying to oust directors and force through supply agreements based on shareholdings, that were bound to fail., for reasons given by Topps. I very much doubt that Poland's richest man is stupid, and he would have been advised that such crude tactics are unlikely to work.
3. Galleon will know this will be hugely disruptive to the management of Topps and a real distraction from the day today running of the company - board will now have to convene daily, with adviers etc.. Huge commitment for a small cap.
4. Makes no sense at all to have built a 29.9 pc stake in a successful business to cause max disruption to the business operations (customers, suppliers, creditors , banks etc) that ulitmately harms your own shareholding and your commercial relationship with the company.
5. So why make this move? Well I think it is a pre-bid ploy to try & flush out institutional level of supportfor Topps BoD (now he knows 40pc back the board).before calibrating his first offer price ! Under the put up or shut up rule in M&As under the Takeover Code Galleon will have to be v. careful about what they say...otherwise they could scupper any potential bid... hence at the mo, they are merely requsitionig an EGM to replace directors with their nominees....
6. This is a hostile bid; it will go live at some point; opening sighting shot 55-60p?

Incredibly a lot of punters are arguing that its only been 6 months since the FDA announcement an that the company needs time to ink the deals. That is utter nonsense, AN has had years in which make the commercial case and build relationship. Signing deals in the medtech sector is akin to the pharma sector - it takes forever. Either AN has been putting his shoulder to the wheel over the last 3-4 years to line up commercial JVs etc, in anticipation of FDA approval, in which case , where is this flood of interest? Or alternatively, and unforgiveably, the commercial journey has only been going for 6 months, in whcih case the company will likely have run out of money by which point Angle +IP+ 10 years of hard slog gets picked up for a song. So Newland, what are you gonig to do to reassure shareholders you have a clue how to bring this to commercial profitability?

Totally agree. Newland needs to pull some rabbits out of hats, and soon. Heaven knows what he told the likes of BG at the placing but all we have to show for a decade of patience with Newland is more commercial disappointment. The FDA clearance was end of May.....
- He used this to raise yet more funding at 80p leading to a subsequent cratered share price. No idea what he promised BG and the rest but seriously, after a decade working on this and supposedly building close ties with commercial partners etc, what has he given shareholders that can usefully reassure folk that this ego-fest is actually comemrcially viable as a stand alone business? Here we go...
- a clinical partnership with Solaris (no income )
- a follow-on contract worth sod all (i.e. upto US$1.2 million over a multi-year period ( if its 3 years its $400k per annum revs or 5 years its$240k per annum).
-shutting down Canada to save money (and this after the equity raise)

Thats all folks,

This has been his retirement project through his off shore consultancy based in Cyprus. Like you, I reconise that he has no intention or expertise in actually building a mine but great expertise at persuading his shareholders out of more and more hard cash to keep the grand illusion going. Shameless character

Where 's the money Harry.....or as Robert de Niro would say " Where's my money,..."

Really great set of numbers and a business firing on close to full cylinders; hard to think what else they can do to please the market!. Worth noting that this morning over 2m shares have traded and the share price has only been marked up 10pc, barely back where it was end of Sept, and still 30% down over last 12 months...., And this despite Poland's richest man holding a huge stake. Value will out but I shake my head in wonder

DB does have a fair amount of egg on face with the delays/profitability issue for this year. I don't understand, given that they raised cash so recently that this wasn't flagged as an issue. S/o somewhere dropped the ball....however on the very much brighter side, OEM 10 is a real game-changer for me, given they had ousted Brembo, and the sheer size of the deal. If the gross margins are indeed 60%+, then that deal's gross profitability isnt ar short of current mkt cap. Market has held this down for a while now, due to (1) indigestion for equity raise and disappointment over price (2) awaiting news of contract (box ticked) and (3) concerns about ST's ability to deliver operationally. The sp should go further from here but the short term news may hold it back. My concerns are (1) SP could trade in narrow band for months now , barring another big contract& that doesnt seem likely (2) that the lack of interest leads to a cheeky bid for teh company from an American outfit -industrail or PE group who sees the potential is not reflected in a sensible share price

Indeed, I was wondering the same.....two thoughts
1. slight rejigging of weighting by an institution ahead of year end
2. S/o thinks that the Bundred trailed order before year end won't happen. If that's the case, then DB will look very silly!!

Wtf is the Board of Directors up to!!!!!!! They must have known in the months that they were negotiating the deal that there could be an independence issue with the audit. Why has this only come to light now! Yet again shareholders are left with serious doubts about the Board of this company. The chairman is proving a complete disaster; the Finance Director has serious explaining to do? As for the bloody audit committee, what on earth is going on?

Rights and Issues Investment Trust plc which under the capable stewardship of Mr Knott had built a substantial position in Carrs finally exited with presumably a stonking loss. Simon K having retired the trust is now under Jupiter's team , and they have clearly decided that, like many of us, they have had enough of this management team, that can offer no vision and no rewards for long-suffering shareholders. Sp may briefly pick up now that the big seller is out of the way, but fundamentally this is going nowhere under a management team that lacks vision, energy , and is toally misaligned with s/holders. Optimal time for purchaser to swoop, just after the £44m lands in carrs bank aco**** and before they fritter it away.

Andy Hornby is a first-class operator -they will survive & thrive. What we're witnessing is a ram raid on consumer facing sectors, and they are a big player. Where the leisurte sector has the drop on others is that Covid forced them to pull in theri horns, cut costs, be more efficient, look at their finance, and cost base etc..so they already had a head start. Now with interest rates rocketing, and worries about recession, they , like the banks, are far better placed.

Hornby has signalled this is decent managemetn team by the 2 most importnat parts of the results:

1.Hedging their energy costs: hedged for next 2/3 years FY22, FY23 & FY24
2 Putting in palce an interest rate cap on a large chunk of their debt, ahead of the interest rate rise -Nov 2022 -Nov 25.

Hornby knows what kills companies is not lack of profits but lack of cashflow; he is now in the great position of having fixed some chunky variables on the cost base: energy costs & interest payments.

Well I look at what I paid for these back when I was a true believer, and I think about the myriad moments when I gave HAA the benefit of the doubt, and the centime dropped that he works on the greater fool principal, and I was no longer going to be one. I wish you luck, but his track record stinks;; his relationship to the truth is on a par with BoJo; he has no expertise in mine-building; he has tried to gouge out moneyfor failure (remeber the cash smash n grab?); here has been sod all progress from 5 years ago; teh money is still not in teh bank; TK remains a project on paper (and no, I dont include security, resettlement, utilities...as the commenary around these ar a cut n paste of similar comments from prior years)

Where's the money Harry? This is just another appalling rehash of every other announcement this utter charlatan has put out over the past seven years. This just aint going to happen foilks. He is desperate to continue to fund his lifestyle and consutlancy package, knowing that the shares are pretty much worthless, as the mine remains still just something on paper. I wish everyone luck, but those of us who have had to deal with this character know that at best he is Walter Mitty, at worst, a snakeoil salesman. No mine will be built on Kefi's watch, and you will all lose your shirts.

I will ignore the snide remark about expertise, but yes I was on the management committee of a Nasdaq biotech group , and yes I was an investment manager too so have some idea about how this works. Of course markets have been smashed esp those long duration companies (see Baillie Gifford's performance or Ark in US. And sell-offs are indiscriminate, but having been invested here a long time, might I remind you that the sp is at the same level it was in 2012! My issue is with the management (s/o else mentioned Clive SInclair earlier, I'll add Thron EMI and scanners), it is no good having cutting edge tech that will change the wolrd, if you cannot commercialise it . The clues are there
1. Woefully underpowered Board that has not been refreshed for years
2. Board interests not aligned with s/holders. FFs we have an NED who doesnt own a single share
3. Management bench strength?
4. Clear commercial plan & milestones?