Member Info for Fevertreeman

So what we forget about TK?

Truth is we having saying imagine if Amdas succeeds for a decade and his pension pot has swelled as shareholders interests have been decimated by him. IMO this RNS is timed to do one or all of these:

1. Try and get so running so he and FD can claim their cash bonus ( vaguely recall the so having to be above a certain level x days in a row) because …..
2. TK isn’t happening any time soon so needs some” good “news to distract
3. Needs to raise more money to keep lights on if TK on ice again

Classic Adams tactic ! Potentially investigating dual listing in SA in order to distract investors attention away from the elephant in the room ( as it his has been for 5years) his egregious failure to get TK up and running. Knowing how Adams operates, the next runs will be about further delay on TK or s/thing worse….

2013 : Kefi bought 75% of TK project
2014: Kefi takes 100pc ownership ................and since then Adams has created how much value?

So here's a thought, if MSG launches a bid before EGM that would put cat among the pigeons for sure. Obv bid timetable would need to be adhered to but....

So do we think MSG launches a bid ?

Undelines strong fundamentals of the business. Rob Parker's comments, given the macro backdrop, perhaps hint at trickier first half, given energy costs etc but sounds cautiously confident not for FY. Doesnt change things re MSG in my opinion. Hard for MSG to point finger at poor management when they seem to be doing a decent job. As the EGM wont get passed what is MSG's next move? If they cant agitate change , options appear sell down or bid. Place your bets

Winnnifrith our resident fortune teller!

What is massively overshadowing this is the enormous figure of Mr Adams! Methinks the ethiopians are as fed up with him as we all are.

Completely agree -Adams coulnt believe his luck when he went from non-exec to executive, and has used his position to create a fabulous personal annuity stream whilst stringing us all along that something was going to happen. Does he care about the sp? Only to the extent that he ships in a bonus which if you recall was going to be paid in cash not Kefi shares. What counts for him is hard cash.

Well we shall see as Adams has form on stiffing his shareholders

Hardly surprising as the market long ago lost confidence in Adams ability to tell the truth, behave ethically, and deliver hat he has promised to deliver for the last god knows how many years.

Indeed! given I spent decades both parsing RNS announcements and latterly drafting them, last week's was one of the worst I've read in ages: Holder is more Noddy than Andrew.

AGL will garner tons of awards this year and last:

- Newland wins the award for worst CEO of 2023 hands down and we are only at January 9th.
- His Board also wins for worst governance and oversight performance of 2023.
- Newland wins worst Investor relations performance of 2023 after stiffing investors
- Newland also wins worst RNS of the year for 2023
- Equity raise wins worst capital raise for shareholders of 2022.

Totally agree! The Board of Directors are a disaster! What on earth did they think would happen to the share price and commercial prospects when this statement came out? When was the Board notified that Newland was going to put out this statement? Was aboard meeting convened to discuss it and the implications? were all the Board in attendance? What did the advisers input?

Yes indeed. Newland has played an absolute blinder, destroying confidence in the company straqight out of the traps start of new year. Less than 6 months after raising at 80p he has succeeded in hammering his shareholders into the ground. At current rate of descent....we will be in penny territory. Chairman should be fired immediately

Hilarious isnt it ...at 0.71p bid - 0.81p offer the spread remains 14% . There has been no + move on the bid despite Adams sending out supposedly positive RNS. So the MARKET has his number, and doesnt believe a word the man says any more.

Adams the snake oil salesman doing his shell trick again...oooh look we have an increase in 'mineral resource estimate' -note the term 'estimate' - which hopefully will distract teh punters from TK.....shuffle shuffle....ooooh look TK delayed pending "further review of documents, pending another calrifcation meeting, pending a full group meeting, pending...pending...."...shuffle shuffel shuffel....oooh look another equity raise at 0.6p

What a total charlatan this man is

I am a holder and bought in on the basis of (1) strong business fundamentals (supported by performance data) (2) excellent financial profile: debt free, decent cashflow, good dividend (3) Solowow stake....in that order.

Professional investors and analysts regualrly misunderstand how mucha business is worth to others in an industry, ans the market is littered with examples of analysts failing to asign proper worth to a business and then scrambling to change their analysis when predator pounces. The second point is that Solowow is an entrepreneur not a professional manager , so more like a Mike Ashley or Lord Hanson, so he will have 'gamed' most of the outcomes after calling for teh EGM. Bernie Ecclestone paid good money years ago to float idea of floating F1 only to shelve it once he has flushed out who among the F1 teams would oppose him...MSG have done just this by this move giving Solowow real time data on which the level of institutional support at current levels for management, and it hasnt cost him a pfenning as yet.

So on to the issue of does he sit there with current stake or go for broke. The calculus an entreprenuer looks at is likely to focus on if I wnat to enter the UK DIY tile market how much would it cost me to build a business from scratch and get a brand name. To build the retail and online distribution reach of Topps, to get access to the customer database & the business intelligence within the group; to start from scratch with suppliers; to buy sites etc...in effect to replicate Topps would take years, cost millions, and have no guarantee of success. So much easier to buy the whole show now whilst sp is trading at close to a 5 year low, after the current management team has done all the hard work!

Worries about overpaying fail to recgonise what he no doubt recognises that institutions will prefer cash bird in hand if price is calibrated correctly than promise of future jam from current management. So Solowow 'overpays' - does he care? Of course not, because he can sit on the business and do what he likes once he owns it. If he heavily incentivises key management to stay why wouldnt they- win win for them. And whats to stop Solowow expanding Topps and then at some future date when markets are booming relisting the whole show.

Oops sorry was typed in haste!