Member Info for Feeks

Let's say Q1 Lungi accrued revenues this year will be c.£1.5m (based on higher passenger numbers). By now (conservatively) we also have at least £1m of coronovirus tech sales, with the prospect of plenty more to come whilst the virus is a problem (and maybe for a longer period).

So we have to make up a £2.5m shortfall to make up over the next 9 months, IF (and it is a big IF) Lungi does not re-open during the remainder of 2020. Not even our beloved modern-day Malthus, DHC, is predicting that scenario (which is probably why he is NOW shifting to saying there will be nobody to employ when the airport does want to re-open - amazing!!!).

The equation is not 60%. The equation is >60% (now) and further rising volumes as the port is expected to expand from 1m TEUs to 3.5m TEUs by the end of this year. By that measure, the cargo revenues should more than double again this year.

But you also need to factor in an improvement based on $/£ exchange rate - so far a 10-15% boost - AND the improved bottom lime due to increased tariffs.

So, even if Alias is wrong, it doesn't make you right (Please see above). There is far more which is positive than is ever commented on here. And finally, those cusps - TEMA was a bolt from the blue at Christmas time - and now, just over one year later we are earning substantial revenues from that contract. That could happen again at any time, and indeed the likelihood of it happening increases in line with the rising profile and credibility of the business. One brings two and all that....

Foxy - rest easy:-
January update:-
".....we expect to report a greatly improved EBITDA performance for the full year as compared with 2018 which was a £0.38m EBITDA loss. As a business we are operationally geared in that we have relatively fixed operating costs and as our revenues continue to grow our profitability will grow proportionally faster. In this respect we believe we are now approaching an inflection point."

Just to clarify my "go bust" comment as someone here will try to misconstrue it - that is Scanport's risk: make a fortune or make yourself go bust for no reason whatsoever. The contract is now operating and WSG is getting paid, and those payments are in increasing both in terms of cargo and relative value ($ to £ conversion rate).

belfy17 - slight correction. Tema is signed, since WSG is named as Technical Partner in the main contract. Scanport is obliged to deliver those services contractually to MPS . Put it like this - if Scanport don't now sign terms with WSG, then it will go bust.

It must be a good working relationship between the parties as there has never been any critical urgency to sign, and all the negativity about that situation bandied around here was totally and utterly wrong.

It's 60% up in Q1 alone from several hundred thousand initial start up revenues in 2019.

AND with the now added benefit of the new tariff in place.

60% is just the start of it too because additional capacity is coming on line (berth 3 - end of Q1 ), and berth 3 end of 2020. The Tema port is unaffected so far. It is unlikely that strategic infrastructure like this will suffer at all (but it may receive some additional support). Tema cargo volumes are rising at is being used in preference to other declining ports

10 tonnes of lead weighs the same as 10 tonnes of feathers Foxy.

"Big" ticket tech - None in Q1... But Q2 ,Q3 Q4 have not happened yet. Is worldwide security suddenly not an issue? What, all because of a slump in the oil price? Even though Saudi Arabia (for example) massively benefits from a squeeze on high cost oil producers and has historically deployed such tactics to benefit its own economy. Even though coronavirus is a temporary blip of 3-6 months according to Dicky Coin?

$1m in 2.5 months from a standing start (with enquiries about orders now at their highest rate) - That's big ticket - it warranted an RNS recently - "it will represent a material element of our business during the current financial period. "

From the January 2020 update:-

Our Technology division has experienced a higher than normal order intake in both December and January for a wide range of security equipment.
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Foxy views
"No Tech Sales".

My view:-
Foxy is a terrible judge as an investor

Your narrative on this matter boils down to this:-

1. You consider that the temporary loss of flghts at a teeny tiny airport in Sierra Leone (closed for just one day so far this year but which until now has been running at record passenger volumes) OUTWEIGHS ALL of the following:-

a) The impact on profits of fast rising container volumes at Tema (the biggest cargo Port in the whole of Africa).
b) Coronavirus tech sales totalling substantially in excess of $1m already in Q1 (and we know that at the very least this will be equivalent to Lungi revenues)
c) the favourable move in the $/£ conversion rate

2. You invested your wealth in 800,000 WSG shares in the first 3 months of this year, despite being profoundly negative on the outlook for a far longer peeiod than 3 months?

None of the above seems remotely plausible.

alisasp - you might add the dollar conversion rate is generally helpful too. I agree that 203 months of this won't have a material impact on company performance by comparison to last year results

Foxhill, let's assume you are right about all this. It appears from your posting history that you have no other investments, just this single share - WSG. What on earth are you doing !?

Yesterdsy's passenger numbers were normal (Thursday)

Didn't they have a charge on the boat? Repossess the boat and sell it again if required

"Myself likewise heaveho in that the rents are still contracted legally and have to be paid at whatever point."
Disagree violenty - it is not happening. Tenants will generally pay whatever they choose for the next 2 quarters! Or those who are being legally advised - generally the bigger players will be getting that advice.

Not sure I agree so much with that longer term (once these troubles are gone) - captured audience. Same with MSAs.
Question: Where do you think WHS has its most profitable outlets? You know the answer!

That tends to be how I think of them. As an asset class it is NOT what it once was to invest in a shopping centre. I think it helps to view it that way certainly. DHC might even be right, but it is an extraordinary gamble when your fate is with the bankers.

win4call - a balanced post. No-one would argue with that. Green shoots emerging slowly. April results could surprise to the upside given current mood here. We know that things were going well until v recently, and with a bit of luck the coronavirus tech sales will limit the damage.
Ps. Probably meant to say, but didn't, "Good luck to Foxy " on his operation / finding comfort, howsoever he can.

Aiming - you are "off out" rather a lot during this lock-down.

Pokerchips -
The most important thing economy-wise is retail trade / tenant businesses, not the capital assets of landlord's everywhere. This may not be so good for pension funds, but too bad..... The landlords might as well all be bankrupt.

In a total collapse scenario tenants could even buy long lease interests (99-year plus) very cheaply. The economy would be better off in the long run. What is a shopping centre anyway ? In truth it is just a corporately owned version of a public street - there is no public value in the ownership structure. I would not gamble on the status quo resuming in the case of INTU.
DHC's investment record is to "pump" bombed up shares, get a quick sign of life, then exit stage. It has backfired badly for him this time.

I am prepared to accept that what Foxhill says is true. I could be wrong again, but it doesn't really matter. It does not change my view that he is too critical of the BOD, and the timing and repetition of those views does play into trader's hands frequently. A fair and balanced view point would be to wait and see what is in the April results and save any judgment until then. No-ome knows but I do know that constant knocking on a daily basis just erodes investor confidence when it is equally possible that much of it is unwarranted. The company IS moving forward - maybe jusy too slowly for some.

Hey Foxhill - i appreciate you took time to explain your situation so thanks for that. I had no idea of course, and I am not a doctor but I get the picture. This helps me understand your viewpoint better thsn I did before. I didn't think you could possibly be invested, but I accept you are, so I apologise for suggesting otherwise. You don't seem to post on any other shares- is this your only holding? If so, you don't need me to say this but it's not the safest strategy and maybe now is a great time to diversify. I do not even dare top up here, whether I think it is a bargain or not.