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JODO. The consensus is that there are too many people in the World. Without Wars (They don’t Work anyway re curbing population) then the thinking is that the only way to control population numbers is to make it an Economic choice for the individual. You make it a selfish choice whether they have a second and third child. To do this you obvs have to lift Half the World out of Poverty.

Think.

The World is certainly not awash with Oil. Explain Exploration Capex for Shell and industry peers. 2050 is relevant for I3 Shareholders. If SH want instant Coffee / best thing to do is sell up and re invest away from I3.

Perfect. As BVB says for Shell. Use the Profits from Oil and the direct those to the Energy Transition. High Oil Price is required to extract the Value and promote delivery of cleaner energy. If China has Peak Oil 2025 then it is interesting why Cash is continued to be spent on Exploration ? Oil Reserves are running out. The Energy Transition is essential to protect what we really need Oil for.
Q / Who’s going to pay for the Transition ?
A / Everyone who earns £1.
How / Increase Price of Oil.

When the Energy Transition is complete (2050 ??) it would not surprise me for Oil to be $200 a Barrel equivalent. Why !?? Because Easy Oil will be gone and if you want to build Infrastructure then you are going to have to dig and go find it.

It’s in Saudi’s interest for Lower Reserve Countries to ramp up their development opportunities and for this to happen we need a higher Oil price to Justify Capex in those areas. OPEC limit Production / Promotes Oil Price rise / Gives rise to Capex away from OPEC / OPEC Revenue is maintained via Higher Oil Price whilst remaining at the Top of the World Oil Reserve List. This is the game.

World Reserves are running out. One by One the lights will go out (Lights being Historic Highly consistent producing Oil fields). The Easy Oil will be left with an ever decreasing number of Producers to buy from.

1.2 Billion humans do not have recognised access to electricity. 46% of World live on less than $3.50 a day. I don’t know about you / but I don’t think the Technological Revolution is going to filter down to these people first ? We need Oil to help lift Half of the World out of Poverty. We will move away from Oil dependancy but it shall remain a fundamental part of the Energy mix. We try to move away from Oil and then you realise it is not being delivered to Half of the Worlds population to Start with.

Think.

Just a Point to Note. Oil is unfashionable now. That gives the manipulators Power to nip in and extract a bigger Share of the Pie themselves. Ie : While Joe Public money is not going in / someone else’s is. FCF is critical. Once FCF is proven / the SP will re Rate much higher. What is more / it will benefit a smaller group of SH imo.

Kane. It is my opinion that if Exploration Capex continues (Shell stated obvs that it does), then this is clear evidence that many Oil fields are maturing. And that they are maturing at Faster Rate than the demand gap is reducing. You cannot replicate the Reliability of Oil.
What is more / If this is the case / then if you Invest any Capex / You are going to need to reduce Risk to a minimum / and that means Markets that already have a proven Track record. Markets that are free from Corruption and closer to home.

If you are OPEC. You will continue the Cap on Production until Oil Price Peaks. It is simple Economics as I have alluded to before. In any case / it may be the case that OPEC reserves are also not large as what is written on paper. I have previously alluded to this.

Also. Oil is a great vehicle to extract Value out of a World population that hasn’t delivered any / for the past year. A Re Balance shall occur re Power. Oil Price will be the vehicle. Every household will have no option other than to deliver £1 in every hundred back up the chain to those at the Top.

Just my Opinion. I have more to add at a later time.

I3 are obviously in talks re Serenity. Hence No RNS. We need Tain to go ahead. They’ve played down Serenity ever since they got the Canadian Assets. I wonder ??

The Thing is GGG U.K. are definitely below the curve on Demand v Production. U.K. defo needs more Production to come online and the Tain Project fits the Bill. Time is now.

Tony It was on here today as a featured Video so must be recent. Cannot seem to obtain date from it / but it’s on LSE.

Sorry I cannot Post Link.
BVB states on Bloomberg 10 min Video and explains he see’s more Upside than Downside in Oil Price in the Medium Term. Caused by exactly what I’ve Stated. Demand not subsiding fast enough below Production. Last few Years lack of Capex is feeding into the System and Delivering Oil Price as you see today / together with OPEC and OPEC + Discipline.
BVB says they will maintain Cash and Investment discipline and use this 10 to 15 Golden period in Oil to Collect Cash and Fund the Transition away from Oil Domination in the Energy mix.
He says they will produce Power to supply equivalent of Germany but spoke nothing of how they would help Transition Developing Countries.
Given the 10 to 15 year Golden Period possibilities in Oil / I think I3 are Well placed. It’s all about the FCF and Dividend. Serenity sat ready to go.

Wouldn’t the BOD buying Shares have similar effect to Share Buy Back ? If Shares are cheap why are not BOD buying ? Is there Greater Value in 20m Buy Back v BOD Buying 20m ??

I don’t fully understand the Share Buy Back Tony ? Does the Company need to Buy Back Shares in order to reduce Share Capital to Pay Dividend ? I don’t think they do / do they ?

Exactly what I am saying Kane. At the same time Easy Oil is running out. Why else would Shell attempt to Win so many Exploration Blocks. They are coveting the World for heavens sake. Reserves are running out outside of the kingdom of Saud.

Keystone was one of 3 Pipeline Projects in Canada. The Pipeline to the West Coast will Export to Asia. USA are protecting their own Oil by Stopping Keystone. Do the math.

This is Interesting.

SHELL Final Investment decision 2109 on Pierce Field (JV Shell 93% Ithaca!! 7%) was the Eighth FID in North Sea since 2018.

I think we are ideally placed.

I’ve already Posted North Sea Production Forecast to Fall. Reserves are running out and faster than the “Supposedly” reducing Demand curve.

Europe Oil and Gas Reserves 12% of the World / when they consume 15%.

Looks like SHELL are still Spending £££ and Winning Exploration Blocks to me.
Argentina 2 Exploration Blocks Deep Water / also a 50:50 Partnership to acquire Schlumbergers interest in Bandurria Sur Block. Egypt onshore and offshore Red Sea bid Block 3 Block 4. Brunei Deep Water Exp Block CA-1. Malaysia Malikia Deep Water.. Nigeria Bongo South West Aparo. Oman Block 42 Block 55.. São Tomé and Príncipe Block 6. South Africa Deep Water Cape Basin. U.K. Pierce Field. Gulf of Mexico 77 Blocks. USA Black Tip prospect.

Any more ???

Why are Shell Spending on New Developments whilst Declaring that Production is Forecast to Reduce attached to Climate Change ? Because their Existing Reserves are Reducing faster than Demand. Given that Demand is Forecast to Taper ... le Viola !!

Although a welcome Post Tony - It is a mere snippet of the whole Story. As Oil Consumption reduces (We need Forecasts on this - Please Research) or at very least / No longer Increases / Then you would expect
Shell to Stop ALL CAPEX for EXPLORATION immediately. Have they done this ? Are they still spending ?

Let’s find out.

Tony / In the Quest for Truth / and what’s actually going on / It would be interesting to find out what 2020 World Oil Consumption Level was. Given that everybody stayed home. Planes stayed on the ground (Apart from basic flying hours as you can’t just mothball a plane). Let’s turn off the Oil Tap and see how we get on.
We need a High Oil Price for people to make the switch. I am not blinkered to Climate Change. I am saying the Climate Change Agenda is brought about from the need to preserve and Extend Oil Reserves as they are running out. With 7.5B people it hasn’t taken long. And Half of those people haven’t had Great Access to Oil - Hence they suffer Poverty.

A Cow has a bigger Carbon Footprint than a Motorcar doing 20.000 miles a year. I’ll let everyone digest that for a minute.
The problem is not Oil or Cows or Global Warming. The problem is humans.
1950 2.5B Population. 2020 7.5B Population.
To think we have the Power to limit the Earths Temp by 1.5 degree is laughable.
We need Oil for Development. Half of the Worlds Population lives on less than $3.5 a day.
Exploration will Stop First. World Reserves are falling (Refer to my Post - End of Cheap Oil) and funnily enough Ability to Produce v 2019 Consumption Levels / won’t Tally with each other Forecast 2050 !!
The Climate Agenda is more to do with Oil running out / rather than the Quest to limit the Worlds Temperature.
We cannot even control a Virus.

Good Post Tony and I take Note.

That will now be in someone’s Wife’s ISA.