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2m people in Texas without Power for days because of snow. What ? Where’s all this Clean Energy lol ?

Oh my goodness. I DO see Demand Outstripping Production if Exploration Stops !! Therefore we will continue to need Exploration. Prev Post Brain fuzzy.

America this week experiencing black outs because the Grid couldn’t service the electricity demand and the Wind Farms weren’t turning. In a Global Population of 7.5B and almost 1B with No or derisory Access to Electricity / we are going to need Oil and Gas as part of the Reliable back up to the Energy mix.

I haven’t Investigated yet how we are going to generate the Electricity to compensate the Fossil Fuel burning in Transport.

However / I have looked at SABIC in Jubail (AKA) Industrial City in Saudi and they are focussing on a new direction for Petroleum. Using Petroleum to forge superior carbon composite material which is being used for body of Vehicle and replacing Steel and other metals which are Carbon intensive to produce.

Rather than burn oil in the combustion engine / use the Oil to build the Car.

Also given that U.K. are practically 99% Self Sufficient from North Sea for Oil and Gas needs / U.K. will seek to maintain this.

Looking on BP Website the Line Graph showing 3% Decline Rates yr on yr shows that if all Exploration Stopped / World would be producing just 45mbopd by 2035 and that is way below what Demand is forecast to be / Hence the move to Electric 2025 to 2030.

I see Demand for Oil not outstripping Production if Exploration Stops. We will need Exploration for next 10yr to compensate for Decline Rates / The onset of Electric will help reduce Demand / but people in Developing Countries don’t drive around in Jaguar / Land Rovers at £50k do they ?

The Wealthy will begin the Transition and feel better for it knowing they started the contribution to Climate Change / when all the time it is their Carbon Footprint that is the largest. Funny old game.

Sorry / Shortfall of Production v Demand.

I think it’s good news for Serenity. If Oil is >$60 then the Investment case starts to Tip in favour of a Development. Also to Add that nearer to the Tipping Point Oil Price is ie :- $60 then any Development would need to Scale up to absorb Capex. Inclusion of Serenity (To be Appraised) could make the whole Project Viable. Exclusion could render the Project Void until Oil reaches sustained period of Higher prices.

Either way Shortfall of Demand v Production should cont to drive up the Price. I think in North Sea Capex re Exploration was reeled in by £3b 2020 and with Natural Decline Rates at Mature Fields 3-6% then we should be in play here. We shall see. The BOD defo played it down.

Doorstep. Read an Article to which I believe in regard any New North Sea Project does not make any Economic sense below $60 a barrel. Given that Riyadh true Break Even is $68 (That’s all the Social and Economic Costs attached re Health Care / infrastructure etc) one would hope that Brent Oil Price pushes on a bit further.

Either way. The U.K. needs that Oil and Gas.

Read yday that Germany and Holland and Italy heavily reliant on Russia for Gas esp.

Phil Collins singing “I don’t care anymore ou warr”.

They’ve never Failed to do an RNS in any particular Month so we have 7 Working days to go popsicles.

Yes Mariog. I would like to see the industry take a tiered approach to lending. If you behave you are on a scale to be delivered an improved APR. If you don’t behave / then you still should have Option (Limited) to borrow but on Higher APR. What is happening / even in the Non Standard sector is that many Borrowers are being Excluded from Credit because Companies like NSF see Risk as too high for obvs with FCA. These people will then go to Unregulated Lending. Although these Consumer types are such High Risk / I believe the Option for them to Borrow on a limited scale should always be there. It’s a long road back but the road should be there. At the moment the Road Closed signs are up. There is a way to adapt and gain FCA Approval because the Unregulated Lending is to be minimised at every opportunity imo.
Also the APR Calculations is archaic. If you lent £20 to a friend in a pub and they Paid you back £20 and a Pint the next Saturday / the APR would be multiple thousand.
For what it is worth NSF Products all come way under the Rate Cap when many other Lenders were caught out. NSF do not Charge any Broker Fees or late Payment or default.
The FCA have work to do with those that do surely ?

You have a job. The Car Clutch goes. It’s £1200. You have £500 in Savings. What are you going to do ? Tell your Employer you now need 3 Buses to get to Work ? What about the kids ? Who’s taking them to football practice ?
You are on Universal Credit. TV screen goes blank. What are you going to do ? You can Hire Purchase - But seen as it is a 10 year Lifecycle / you decide you want something that’s Quality and Owned by yourself.
You have a Part Time job. You are going on Holiday and have left yourself short of Free Cash because the TV just blown up or the Car Clutch went last Month. What are you going to do ?

You get the picture. NSF offer essential Services and without them / Unregulated lending is the Next Bus Stop.

I will keep my Research to myself in future. GLA.

Also if All Exploration Stopped tomorrow and worked on a 3% Reserve Life Decline Modal yr on yr / by 2035 the World produces less than 40mbopd vs the 95 today.

In fact - the Forecast Oil Production on this Modal falls Way below the Paris Climate Agenda / and I mean way below.

Also ; the 3% Decline Rate is Modest at Best - Because Mature Fields can see 4-6% Decline year on year.

So basically, Exploration is absolutely essential next 5/10yr to plug the Gap and also taking Full Account any foreseen reduction in demand brought about by the onset of the end of the combustion Engine.

It’s on BP Website. Quite informative I found the 3% Decline modal to be.

Yes Tony I go with that (And Good Post) / and that does not account for any Serenity upside. So it’s all about the BOD Proving up the numbers.

I’ve been doing some Research myself re BP and the attachment of Social Economic Costs to the price of Oil. Saudi real B/E is $68 as this accounts for all the re delivery of Taxes / Royalties to Health Care and infrastructure projects etc. In time the Social Cost throughout the World will be attached and Diversified amongst many Industries/ but for next 5 years at least it should keep the Oil Price buoyant.

“In terms of Catalysts, we see the Declaration of the Companies Maiden Dividend in Q1 as being key to proving the Business model”.

Also to Note that the AECO Rising Gas Price will add material Value - Mirabaud said. We need more Comments on here re the AECO Gas price and how that can influence our FCF as Oil accounts for 2/5 of our Production.

No one can now deny that the BOD are actually content to Hold off RNS release. It would be virtually impossible that nothing has changed since last Guidance. I am not saying RNS is Good or Bad / but they are holding off.

Could Point towards leaky Ship.

GGG. Apologies. I was referring to WTI as our Canadian Assets are sold at WTI - $5 Discount for Transport ?? Only from JAN has WTI been above $50 as I stated. Either way no one knows what Price to be guided by as the BOD fail to communicate / deliver a clear Price Cause and Effect methodology on Profit FCF etc.

Until BOD confirm FCF / then SP may bob. Let us not forget Oil Price has only sustained $45 since mid NOV and so even though $60 today (Predicted by FF my good self), fact remains $50+ has only been sustained for 30 to 45 days or so. It’s not like $60 is any guarantee.
If $60 is maintained then we can see 7p during March.

Great Post Kane. Thank you.

Tony. I don’t wish to sound condescending to you but in answer to you Q the obvs reasons are as follows :- Do you think I3 will just cease to accumulate Assets / fail to Diversify and just burn out ? In which case why are you invested ? Maybe you hope for a T/O or a simple return of all Cash at the end ? That won’t happen.
Saying what happens in 2050 has no bearing on I3 now is just short sighted imo. The need for Oil and Chemicals will continue. We are on a Trajectory with the Oil industry as is now and in the future. Of course it is relevant.