Member Info for faramog

16p @knuttie !!! ... really !

yes ... my typing of numbers is s&*t today !! ...

@GrahamW

Simplistically ...
costs = (fixed costs + depreciations + operational costs) / production

With a shutdown for maintenance of 45 days (+ 5 strike days), production is a lot lower and only the operational costs vary with production

Hence, as production ramps up and up, the aggregate cost/kg falls and the gross margin/kg goes up

My typo... General point though is the substantive production is to the end of year into rising vanadium prices and lowering cost base

dont blame you @prussell - but as I said over the w/e I expect the VFRB and Vanadium landscape to be rather different by year end (one way or another)

Still very happy as I am in for the long term but I did sell some this morning to give me some play money and liquidity - the update on and car-crash dial in did no favours at all and rather detracted from the slightly bigger picture which is that almost 5 months into the year we have only produces a bit less than 20% of the guidance production due to planned maintenance.

So with knocking 80% to go on a rapidly rising Vanadium price, both the costs will fall (as the fixed element is apportioned wider) and the operation costs will fall due to the maintenance and scale. Add in the rising vanadium price and we still make a very healthy profit over the year

I am afraid it is still jam next year ... but the blocks are coming together

oh man .. aye driving along with a tonne of acid on my head sounds great

well HL would not .. in fact I tried 3 settings .. each time rejected with 'the price needed was ....' just below ... basically they dont want them.

Tells me the MMs either have enough or expect a down-slope.

Lets hope FM's interviews this week are rather better than that car-crash post Operational Update dial-in

best 'offer I got was 14.8 just now from HL .... wont even quote for 10k shares

MM's have had their fill right now and looking for a short sharp pop down for a bit ?

"I think BE will become the main procurement vehicle for the whole Africa continental mini- grid market."

That would go some way to filling the void of what is MN doing .... there does seem a lot of quiet goings on .... no idea if you are right @Lindon, but that would fit with the strategic vision

well .. VERL is the jointly owned rental arm ... then there is BE and all the value add they will do in system sales .. so I rather think 'gobbling up' will not happen - there is a strong imperative to sell into SA and Africa - at commercial prices mind

Ben - Eskom is for the most part vanadium supply only really for us - the real money is mini-grid when factories or municipal regions put up solar and need to store and balance it using storage - that is where rental will be such a winner as Capex will be a lot lower.

I think what Lindon (and others) have got at is the 200MW initial capacity of the electrolyte plant may well end up largely in Rental-land .. and I agree. Does not stop purchases, but the market is 1-10mw systems really dotted all over Africa.

That would be practically 100% local content - a vote winner/job creator. Personally, I see Eskom as noise for headlines - Eskom want to deal with large players and Bushveld is just a part of one consortium

Well .. horses for courses ... 'Commision H2 2022' Commisioning means 'making operational' most everywhere I ever worked but it is Africa so who knows.

You may be right that a ramp up will happen, but then it will hardly go full bore production on day 1 - in fact, I would expect that some parts will be in operation in H1 (the original MS Plan did rather point to this), but the essential point (whether 18 months or 24+ months) is that timing into the expected market need is happening - zero point having a full plant sitting idle.

As for Chika - well - she is simply not allowed to say anything even if she knew (which I doubt), and I agree Main FTSE is the priority for me - I personally think JSE is all about enriching some locals (call me cynical) and will add nothing to anything of PI value (other views are available).

But my central points are still valid - Plant timed to expected market and getting off AIM is a priority (at least for me)

It is certainly a fairly negative thing to post, but not sure I disagree with the sentiment. And LionelG's point about 'keeping a low profile' is one I have had for some time. I rather felt it was all tied up to JSE after all, if the big re-rate has happened before then how can the 'genuine' SA investors get a good return (nod nod, wink wink)

The timing of the Electrolyte plant being essentially in full operation in around 18 months is an annoyance, but rather reflects when the need for electrolyte in that quantity can be expected.

There are numerous relatively small systems in play and those can be fed ad-hoc by various labs. Really big systems will likely not be requiring electrolyte for at least 12 months and probably rather longer - the timing just reflects the slower take-up and rollout. Absolutely no benefit to having a plant operational that sells nothing.

I seem to recall a vid (Crux in Nov/Dec ?) where FM was asked about the SP and seemed as fed up and exasperated as we are. He cannot control it. What he and the team can do is carry on building the foundations of a sustainable vertically integrated pipeline of dirt to energy - remember there were 7 points identified in the chain where money can be made.

As for my own view on where/how the SP will move, I have long felt it was rather more tied up to moving off AIM and the sewer rat control of the MM's. A logical timing for that is Jan 22 at the start of the next financial year. At this point the electrolyte plant will be taking shape, first order deliveries from IES and Enerox will have occurred, Eskom should have a clear picture, The Chinese big systems will be online and more in commission.

In 6-8 months, the VFRB world picture will be both clearer and more importantly the numbers available for people to make reduced risk investment decisions.

I hate to say it but a few big high profile Lithium fires would be handy, but don't wish that as likely people will be hurt

By all means post off the FM - and I agree, the BOD have been a bit naive at times and need a much better PR setup, but like LG says and I agree, the lower profile suits right now prior to JSE.

We should be able to vent frustration here and have different views. In the end, nothing on here will change both the market price control or the paradigm that we await big events to lock in place

Yes Bumbling... If purchases are outside SA... But sales are higher as the $ goes up

+ On one side - on the other.... Not a perfect match but no need to hedge the small difference.... Yet

100k + 80,085 ?

Nice one FB

it is a tedious listen and FM did not seem his usual enthusiastic self - sounded tired I though but did liven up towards the end

Usual rubbish question from meyer but an interesting comment on why the risks and costs might be higher - a lot of the refurb involves a lot of steel and there is a supply pinch and higher costs along with some unknowns ... kind of casually spoke of 1 month or so delay being possible) - makes sense but I would have thought they had agreed pricing and delivery on order. Hence costs may be at the higher end (which was picked up by the analysts) - interesting from around 20 mins.

All seemed a technical clarification, but seemed to matter to the analysis - I just wonder that if costs in a quarter depend on the audited (later) data from the previous quarter, whether it is less mirror and more smoke at times (but all evens out I bet)

27 mins interesting talk on Vametco Phase 3 plans and why it seems a bit slow. Personally I thought it the result of realising the plant is older and does need upgrading and bedding as it grows, but interesting non the less.

Got the feeling it is not so much they slowed the pace of expansion, but have more appreciation it is harder and needs to be done meticulously and carefully

Have a good w/e all

apologies @Pdub .. that was rude I you did not deserve it ...

what is negative about:
"If you read what I said, it was
1. No surprises
2. Rising profits
3. A lack of spinning the upbeat (as gambit pointed out)
"

it is exactly this that could have been in the RNS @gambit ..... !!

you my mother and I am perfectly entitled to my point of view ... personally I am finding you constant rattweiller stance to people a total put off -

I suggest you filter me .... if all you want is uber ramping then no-one new will learn anything - just a pump board .... so sod off