Member Info for faramog

I think @Pdub, the negatives step from the crowd mentality based on fairly upbeat and clearly incorrect production assumptions. FM needs to should a bit of criticism here as it is not many months ago that those targets were still being intimated when they must have been quietly not at all sure.

As for positives, plenty ... the vertical integration plans are progressing (forget what Bolgas says as I just don't get why leasing is not viable), but it will take a few months longer to ramp up.. so what ?

Another strong positive, is that perhaps rather more attention to process control will now occur - better to have the hiccup now rather than when expecting 5,6,7,000MTV and drop like a stone. It is clearly not just a linear scaling process of extraction and that must also give us heart that new entrants will also find it very challenging (especially given their generally lower concentrations).

Lets not forget that one of FM's big rules was 'lowest cost producer' and focusing on ensuring production costs are controlled is a way to guarantee strong FCF despite market ad production variance.

Need a good mining conf and to cap off with a nice Brownfield site RNS with a tailings plan

well put @Daisan ... I agree. We can dance about the cash and potential, but we know the 'market' investors are pretty lazy and foxus on small things or absolutes, so your comment "the market pretty much always focuses on in my experience - production issues and missed guidance" I feel is pretty much spot on.

Folk talking about FY guidance/achievables of 3,000-3,300 and now today 2,800. Until the company makes clear how it has addressed the quality and control issues it seems to have suffered it is hard to see much more.

Lots of potential, but I cannot help feeling a bit miffed that all the expansion ra-ra from the company has been missed by so much.

No we have the 'excitement' of the mining conference. Frankly I am not expecting anything. The priorities are quality and process control or the only expansion of output possible will be via Brits/Mokopane offtakes.

There is a silver cloud to this and worth considering. It has proved very much more difficult to expand output and maintain process control. Why do we expect any future company trying to open a mine to not experience the same. Rather suggests to me that a constraint in supply could well last longer that perhaps the market views (2-3 years)

great news Pdub

Bolgas,

You do not see leasing as viable ? Curious as to why not. Seems to work very well in many consumable industries

As for unproven - well there are some pretty big systems in operation and even bigger ones being built. I would agree that the way they can be integrated and managed into a supply network is still not fully worked but that was exactly the same for Lithium-Ion

Lots of posts and insightful (as always) analysis - but we all got it a bit wrong and expected more if honest.

I am encouraged by the Meyers note - rather more upbeat that he has been and the FCF figures of $144.5m (2019) and $191.6m (2020) all with reducing vandium pricing to $45/kg look positive enough and ought to be bettered. I wonder if either FM has given him a boot up the jacksy or maybe allowed a more upbeat output

What I am confused about is the implied message that nameplate capacity will not be 5,000MTV by the end of this year, but considerably less. Back in August last year the Q2 operational update said "Phase Three of the expansion plan is scheduled to increase Vametco's annualised production capacity to over 5,000 mtV by the end 2019". Then again in the Q3 update in November there was a message that "Tailings facility expansion ... will now be completed by end of Q4 2018 and deposition commence during Q1 2019" and "Kiln off-gas project... Commissioning planned for end of Q1 2019".

Are these numbers in doubt now and if so why was that made very clear - after all we are only 4.5 months off the Q2 update.

I wonder when this leaves a JSE listing - not quite the most positive message to potential II's who want to see more significant growth perhaps.

One final question .. if expansion has been slowed (in terms of nameplate capacity and actual output) then where will the extra vanadium needed for Electrolyte manufacture come from later this year ?

All good long term (perhaps a little longer out), and I would bet @RichKen still sees 160+ by the end of the year

@Fatbanker ... I fear your French Trip JuJu has frozen in the winter !!

so @Bolgas ... "V prices look set to destroy all hopes of vrb by continuing its rise." ... does this mean you see RED as a lame duck and folding ?

Not having a pop ... genuinely interested in your view

The fluctuation was detailed in an RNS and there is more in both SPA's note and the RNS today - consistency of grade and also some lower concentrations of ore.

I think they may be having some consistency issues around process as the operation expands and gears up. Nothing to worry about - all part of the learning curve

Been largely offline so far. A bit surprised by the figures but the journey was not going to be a straight line. I really like Spangels humour... look how good we are at predicting ..... reminds me of Vince Cable... one prediction out of many right and suddenly a sage..... we all know Vandium will not be $45 in a years time !!.... gonna have to catch up properly later but I fear the 1 pound cup may take ratger longer

With a seeming green light in the Bundestag, anyone know how Scott is getting on generating the finance for the big deal ?

last seen heading for France ... he did speculate that large rises occur when he gets settled .. been over a few days now and look what seems to be happening

all the very best for tomorrow @Pdub ...

600K ish of trades reported after hours 100K, 300K ,99,999 (must need that spare 1 earlier and another just under 100K

maybe we should as Winfrith for a tip lol

January is not over AlistairM !!

Building stock has two other beneficial effects. Firstly it restricts supply (a bit) helping to support higher prices, and secondly, it provides an initial buffer for electrolyte manufacture without an impingement on steel supply while higher production comes on line.

Oh.. there is a third reason .. a bit less nice ... provides a buffer should there be any further industrial action

nice Paladina... $17m bucks so far this month

perhaps the big 'short' is over for now ... they have gone back into their burrows !!

I hate to ask what colour @kevKan ha ha

@Jamiejojo .. yup ... frightening numbers ... but this is most definitely that one in a generation share right now.

Just running the numbers it is certainly not a pipe dream that post tax profits of more than a billion are coming in 5 years (or maybe less) ... that a conservative SP of circa 15 quid. Factor in a 5%+ specials div yield and the pension funds will want a big slice

Nothing is certain, but just run the vanadium output up to 25,000MTV+ (and beyond with Brits & Mokopane, the electrolyte leasing and service entity returns etc ... the numbers just get very large very quickly

if I was being a bit cynical I might suggest that is a very handy 'arrangement' ... go FM !