Member Info for faramog

Ahh .. missed that thanks Mogway

Contracts will be awarded from 31st Dec to 28th Jan

Won't be long to wait for news, but I agree it would calm a lot if we got a chunk of the first one out

Well as I just said (and posted 2/3 weeks ago)' 8400mtv just into steel alone at today's prices gives us $100m+ in net profit.

If we have little invest in further then at least half would be dividend... Around 5p a share

At a 4% yield that is an SP 9x where we are.

We know VFRB works and we know the cost base works, but if not then a 9x+ so rise from here works for me just fine.

fM has put us on a no-loose path. This is why when my house sale goes through I will be buying a lot more

JD.... If we financed the leasing out of profits of steel we effectively say no dividends for several years whilst carrying industrial customer risks.

Not at all what I see as in our shareholder interests in the next 3-5 years. Jam tomorrow is just that. Selling it all into steel gives us over $100m net profit at 8400 MTV.

@DD

Profit rather more than 10% DD - we would be better just selling into steel alone at that rate.

Around 40% of the VFRB cost is the electrolyte and whether leased or directly bought, I cannot see Bushveld not doing as the motor industry do and gaining full sale price selling to a separate leasing company (maybe with a future profit stream deal though).

We have no figures, but there were some reasoned and detailed posts earier in the year rather suggesting a circa $50/kg sale price of electrolyte.

So production costs = $17 (ish)
Sale price to BE = $30
... remember profit here we only get 74%

BE Costs - no idea but lets say $10 + $30 purchase
BE Sale price = $50
BE Profit = $10 ... and Bushveld gets 100% of this

Total profit per kg = $23/kg

I have just guessed prices, but you will get the idea - a lot more overall profit than 10%

On top of that there are the operational rollout and stack costs - You may well be right to suggest overall a 10% profit on that (although I would rather expect it to be higher to cover the variable risk of rollouts and unforseens)

If it is $120M at 40% being Electrolyte ($48M), profit would be ($13+$10)/$50 = $22M. At 10% profit for the remaining works that adds $7m.

So on just a few random scribbles I get 24% gross profit..... and I rather feel this is a bit on the low side.

If the only profit is just the effective Vanadium sale price less mining costs then I get $48m * $13/$50 = $12.5M on $120M total .. which is circa 10%.

So the only way I see a 10% overall profit is if all electrolyte, site works, building and commissioning is done purely at cost.

Lots of numbers pure guesswork, lost of variables... but 10% just looks way way too low to me

A lot raised, a lot diluted, and a mixed message on long term tin pricing.... But really it is the Tantelite that is so key to long term profits.

I do wonder about AV though....

Exactly what I said Alfa... 30% feels a right balance

ha ha ….

As I have said in the past part of he problem is when looking cold, Bushveld is a junior one product miner in an effectively junk status country with little tangible progress eliminating corruption, whose one product is a volatile commodity.

Until that paradigm changes, not a lot will really change perception.

As I have said before, I do feel that ultimately Bushveld needs either a re-brand and an over-arching company along the 'Bushveld Energy Storage Solutions' line. The lazy bolly-swillers need to have their eye taken away from the commodity (as despite any amount of literature, they will not get the hedge of price: Steel vs Energy). The story long term needs to be away from mining and into large scale global energy storage provision.

I very much doubt FM has not considered this and an appropriate timing. Eskom gives us essentially a near slam-dunk shop window of systems and provision. Off the back of that a new global energy solutions provider can be realistically born

Mmmhh. I don't know the numbers off hand.. what are the OP numbers for the past couple of years

Not sure I agree though. It is perfectly normal to make normal or even negative OPs in high growth companies. What is needed to sustain this is large and growing profits... Surely

Until the profits increase. !!!

... We sit in the top 10 of aim NET profit companies and if looking at the FTSE in the top 30%

That was on of the reasons for the PI share register... To give some confidence to FM in the event of nefarious TO bids....

I have no issue with foing the same for other reasons. The recent AGm was an opportunity (very low key this year wasn't it)...

Question is... What would we do with that influence and how would we agree.

I am peeved by the SP, continually disapointed by Comms, but delighted by FMs strategic and long term building of a world class business.

So what to do.... For me... Let FM just get on with it

Not sure where 10% comes from but would be very low. All eggs in one basket improbable so personally had 30-50% in mind.

Remember, of all possible bits only one has 70-80% local job creating content.

If the $450m (ish) total contract I rather thought last year somewhere in the $150-200m+ was most likely and at least $100m as near certain

Not strictly true @KnutfordN.... the IHT tax free element is for any holding held for 2 years or more on AIM. However, crucially, this is excluded for joint listings. So when we joint list that little perk disappears

Bushy golden shares on AIM will be subject to IHT rules the moment we joint list

Very low volume so far today.....

Eskom business is a racing certainty... Off the back of it will showcase BE very nicely and act as a sales window to Africa and the world...

Remember BE can also just sell electrolyte to anyone and while the initial capacity is 200MW pa, there is space and planning provision for 4x that .... Would take maybe another 6 - 9 months to build & Dec out.

**** loads of vanadium and premium priced electrolyte + ever growing steel requirements.

Sssshhhhh.... I want the do to drop more over the next couple of weeks to get more silver tokens for my cash

Got a link to the podcast ?

8 1/4 inch 105k floppy you mean.... Or are we going back to bubble memory

Zx spectrum server ... Ha ha.... Very good

lets see if the moderator allows the post ....

Your comment is awaiting moderation.

Just a handful of the ‘current’ large scale Flow-Battery (based on Vanadium) there are. You rather suggest Flow Batteries are relatively small …. well Dalian in China is about to commission (in the the next 2-3 months) an 800MW system (just as a start). In the middle of a city of 8m as well

1,000 MWh——- China – Jiangsu TianWan nuclear station (4,500 tonnes)
1,000 MWh——- China – Jiangsu offshore wind integration (4,500 tonnes)
—800 MWh—— China – Shijiazhuang (3,600 tonnes)
—800 MWh—— China – Dalian (3,600 tonnes in 2 stages)
—640 MWh—— South Africa – Eskom BESS phase 2 (2,880 tonnes max)
—500 MWh—— China – Hubei Zaoyang Ph 2 (VRB Energy) (2,250 tonnes)
—400 MWh—— China – Yancheng (Shanghai Electric Group) (1,800 tonnes)
—400 MWh—— China – Wuhan (1,800 tonnes)
—332 MWh—— S. Africa – Eskom BESS phase 1 package 2 (1,494 tonnes)
—320 MWh—— S. Africa – Eskom BESS phase 1 package 1 (1,440 tonnes)
—300 MWh—— Australia – Pangea, Port Augusta (CellCube) (1,350 tonnes)
—165 MWh—— S. Africa – Eskom BESS phase 1 package 3 (743 tonnes)
—–51 MWh——Japan – Abira Town Hokkaido (Sumitomo Electric) (230 tonnes)
—–40 MWh—— China – Wafangdian Zhenhai Wind Farm (180 tonnes)

I fear the writer could do with having a look at how big some of the Chinese systems are .... clearly a Li-Io man !

https://www.powerelectronictips.com/flow-batteries-what-can-you-use-them-for/?spMailingID=29594&puid=140098&E=140098&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=29594