Member Info for faramog

Great interview .. some gentle (but subtly searching ) questions....

Lots in this, but I love this ..... "Both our 2nd and 3rd assets (right now) value the company at greater than the current Mcap ..... if we do a proper (and conservative) valuation, we have a discounted value closer to $0.5B right now .... the market will catch up eventually"

That is 5x current SP ..... and ignores what we could expect from Lithium if the SQM drilling results come in as hoped for.

Implied in this is an SP north of 20p and not perhaps all that far away !

Revenue forecasts based on $32 ...and we currently get over $50. "Every incremental gain (and commodity price increases) has a direct impact on the bottom line"

Jig plant issues .... its really all about the fines and water recycling along with some process stability issues... all fixable, just resolving and taking a little more time.

What we are seeing is the start of an Australian style mining region evolving (with of course Andrada front & centre).

Much of the rest is nothing new ...

Lithium ... Extracting 3 metals from the same ore (Lithium, Tin and Tantilium) ... clearly going to take time to ramp and embed but the effective costs on each will be very much lower. Essentially for example the Tin or Lithium is produced for free (assuming all costs put on the high value Tant). Lithium has the potential to make UIS a 'cash generating beast'.

200m tonnes of ore reserves gives us a 200 year mine life (currently)... Tantilium sells for $180k/tonne currently and will add 3-5% of the groups revenue (basically as 'free' bottom line)

Namibia - a 4% GDP growth rate, a new 'massive' oil find and politically very stable.

How are you balancing capital deployment over the various projects ? [great question at 37 mins ish] A bit of corporate waffle but did say he expects UIS to be generating solid cash flow at current prices.

Good summary of 'why ATM is better than most junior miners' at about 40min

In the next year, Jig commissioning, lithium ridge draw results to come out over H1 (steadily), Ore sorting later in the year, Lithium integration framework, Copper & Tungston investigations, Feedstock growth options (and other stuff)

In 5 years ... substantially increase production rates and metal streams, Lithium ridge in production or advanced stage with SQM .. [so a large plant build then !]. But to hit that $1B valuation (and that is possible with the resources and streams]

$1B company @Oogleflugal ... forecast by who ?

No ... but I would take 30p LOL

@E-B ... probably traders closing their positions prior to christmas. Remember, most buying have no clue what they buy, the potential or indeed incoming cash flows... its all charting and relative risk on short positions.

Not quite where I thought we would be given the early positive soundings months ago about 'immediately accretive' and rapid production increase with the upgrades, but well set up for Q1 next year and so long as the court case gets positively resolved then by H2 a steady stream of high grade ore will be in place.

Looks good for next year.. enjoy the turkey folks !

BB28 - yes .. but only in time. Almost a year ago I was chatting with another investor and neither of us had ATM. We looked at the probable timeline and concluded that so long as Tin recovered to mid 30's than by year end/into Q1 26 the company should just about be in the black and primed to grow. What changed that were the announcements at the end of Q1 and into April/May with wording that led us to believe a rapid growth was incoming, and for modest investment a considerable and near immediate rise in production. All of that has turned out to be misleading guff ! (but you roll the dice with AV)

We are saved by the high and growing Tin price. The wording (while ambiguous) does tend to the near completion of the jig commissioning and we should expect increased output from that. But it is the high grade ore in conjunction with the plant increases that will propel consecutive quarters in the black with healthy margin. So long as that does not get spaffed on more jam tomorrow dreams then should be a very good year. As long as tin does not collapse down to 30 and stays above 40 then very optimistic the SP will be in double digits by the summer.

In a sense, what my friend and I discussed a year ago is coming about when we felt it would. I just invested (and then added) based on the clearly misleading RNS's earlier this year

While not making a profit and having a large debt and current account liability (in the royalties), perhaps not so much to shout about. But the ASIC should be markedly coming down and with production ramping (faster into next year) along with royalties dropping (as they will with higher volume) and the Tin price heading upwards then a very healthy margin will be made and then there is ample to crow about and go on the interview circuit. Throw in news on Lithium and the other longer term possible elements and the SP might well go back to tracking tin price and beyond

Oh flip ... the xxxx is "t . me"

there is a telegram group already running h t t p s :// ****/+y4iiwixb_1dhyzg0

Because it is Tantalum concentrate ... not fully refined I expect

Thanks TD2 .. I did listen, but it was so tedious I missed that

The hedge expired .. been no RNS saying they have a new one I can recall

Well @TD2, your post implied (at least read like it) that ii's were 'flighty... but some have left, some have joined and overall their collective holding has increased. That is not flighty at all

Oh and I agree.. the Crux interview is a waste of time....

Not sure I see that TD2. Large II's (excluding the obvious PI folders) held 41.8% of shares in issue 18 months ago and now hold 44.5%

Yes well ... when Lithium is more or less universally viewed as at (or close too) the bottom of a long slow cycle... of course the probability is 'up'

Not sure I would read more into it than that .... AV has spaffed a fortune on Lithium so far and zero chance of a return in any reasonable timeframe... needs to just focus on the tin and get into the black consistently... build from there

Good point TD2 .. begs the question of why not even a note to say 'sorters on track' .. pi55 poor coms really

Practically $37K ..... the chartists would now say the 36K ceiling looks broken and the next stop is about $41-44k ... we shall see if the tea-leaves are right this time

Tin Bot

@TinPriceBot

#Tin price: 36790 (+895, +2.49%)

4:24pm London $Tin https://metal.com/Tin/LME_SN_3M

Still only 4m in volume ... no mass sell off at all .. just MM's after cheap shares

I think the issue is the ASIC rise. It makes the margin to Tin price low .. that could have been explained just better , but actually anything. Is it higher and quicker capital expenditure (as implied in Feb), is it training costs (again intimated earlier), other commercial and offtake up front costs ?... in other words, how transitory.

I was looking at ATM starting to go into the black at the end of the year. The fluff and bluster in Feb made it look like they were riding faster on an incoming tin price resurgence and looking to spend higher up front to get there .... why could that have not been explained.

Yet again, AV demonstrating little market awareness... so long as the right chums get in cheap I guess.

But Acam etc bought in fast and big off the back of a site visit .. so they clearly saw and heard something that so far we don't know

Volume very low .. just MM's sucking up cheap weak holders

Not gone down well has it .. AISC is I guess what has spooked .....

Figures other than that as expected but yet again AV misses the chance to both explain it (higher capital costs, energy costs and a period of lower ore grades [I seem to remember]) but also really nail in the plant upgrade timing and expectations

pretty poor really against the clear expectation

As the saying goes ... 'as you were troops !'