Member Info for fali41

Where is the evidence?

Talk of a cash offer in excess of £6 per share is entriely feasible depending how much they get the initial 30% for. If they continue accumulating sub £3 they will be happy to finance a offer £6+ As there average will balance the books. Interesting few weeks ahead. It seems they being tactful with the buys as to not spike the price just yet.

From i could make of the Bio finances to fund an acquisition of Nova i estimated they have around c£170m in cash available. Currently our EV is about £40m (could be negative if DHSC revs are guaranteed) and so technically they could keep accumulating on the open market between £2-£3 to reach 30% without impacting the bank too much. From then on, my opinion is a mix of a cash and share for share offer. I dont see them using debt financing considering the financing facility they already have. In theory they could get us very cheap and are seizing this opportunity.

We may see some defensive tactics in play from the BOD. I wouldnt mind a ‘white knight’ to start accumulating aswel.

B2 - why risk the capital without knowing beforehand? Their intentions will become clear soon. Another theory maybe the board are aware of a settlement re. The dispute and to fend off potential hostile bidders they agree to merge with a similar sized player on conditions they purchase voting rights. DA sounded confident of a positive settlement. Anything upto £75m in added cash include the cash from Q1 and cash will be at almost 1.25x mcap.

The board are surely concerned about the level of PI holding and wary a fairly cheapish bid say £5-6 a share maybe accepted by desperate PI’s.

Any idea the method they went about purchasing the shares in Theradiag? Was is staggered over a period or all in one flush? My view is a merger/tie up is in negotiations and following some DD from Bio they decided to invest not only to show intent or maybe conditionally as part of the merger but also they see a lot of value down here. They wpuld have been privy to more info than we know of and with the diversification into non covid and strategy in progress it makes sense to tie up with a company in a similar field working on similar products looking to grow.

They are listed on the French exchange. I doubt its a RTO as what would be the motivation for them to list in the UK. Most likely a merger or partnership but i would expect an announcement confirming this from Novacyt.

Why was that thread deleted? Was it Poidsters post at 2am? He seemed confident on the resolution?

The collab with TATA is one certainly not to be sniffed at. They are working closely as evidenced already and these new jobs may be indicative if whats to come. Having TATA as a potential large customer is huge if we can deliver what they need. Additionally, they have a habit of taking out aspiring businesses and diversify in all types of sectors. This could be on the cards at some point in the future.

DA has gone in with a very conservative forecast for this year. Better under promise over deliver than the other way round. Perhaps a bit optimistic but i expect us to exceed £60m total revenue with a similar EBITDA. Another variant is around the corner and testing will remain for a long time to come.

‘ Fali41 - You said the same thing to me on the 6th October 2021. Not much else you say so best to listen those that know unless you prefer the rampers stories?’

Wow. Forgive me for not frequenting the board as often as you and checking peoples posting history. Find a hobby pal!

The company havent given a revenue forecast for this year BYP. They said covid revenue is expected to decrease by 50% and new non-covid revenue will partially offset the decrease in Q4.

What do you gain by ranting in every post to people you dont even know? All holders have lost big here but your starting to sound like a broken record.

Surely water testing is part of the new area they will focus on? They hashtag it nearly all the time! Maybe this could have been mentioned yesterday?

Good interview. He has feet under the table and a strategy to work towards. Organic growth and business development through M&A. I am expecting a clearer update on target markets in April and expect us to deliver beyond the guidance of 50% covid revenue with emerging variants now that we are focussing on part of our strategy to be first responders.

The market has taken the worst case scenario for us and pricing us at £140m mcap is ludicrous. The man and business need to time to grow. I am holding out for the rest of this year at least.

£101m in cash and more expected from DHSC this year.

Non covid revenue 14% of revenue and expected to offset covid revenue in Q4. I expect this to grow significantly in 23/24 as the business decides on the best markets to enter ‘Market Led’ business going forward. Expect some M&A in the next 12 months also with that huge war chest to bolster revenue streams.

Happy with that.

‘Sell 2 days before the results’

So you know when the results will be released? Hmm

Soder hit the nail on the head. Imo Graham had plans to get us mid cap and the board may have been offered a buy out subject to resolution of the dispute. Graham wasnt on board and walked and now the silence is purely whilst they negotiate a settlement.

This is getting serious! How are we still in dispute?!?!

All the more reason we should be negotiating a new contract and resolution asap!

Is that you being bullish woody. Bloody hell!

RBM - always very reasoned posts.