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The revenue forecast was extremely pessimistic and maybe stated to allow Bio to buy in on the cheap. (If they are agreeing a merger) my guess is revenue has been good this far hence the director and PA buys. With the audit office agreeing the dhsc awarded dodgy contracts i hope and following DA’s own words our end of the contract was tight snd we have very strong grounds to assert the obligation to pay. If all this comes through by year end an optimistic cash position could well be £200m +
This should strengthen our case hopefully.
https://news.sky.com/story/amp/covid-19-procurement-government-did-not-properly-document-decisions-around-awarding-contracts-says-audit-12573564
If the dispute is reolved and we get paid in full. We could have £3 SP in cash by year end. I will not be accepting that as a PI! However, i imagine if that is the case the SP will be well in excess of £3 before then
I wouldnt be surprised. If nova are not in with Bio purchasing they could get potentially get a ‘white knight’ to buy shares to increase the price as a defensive play. Seen it happen before and Nova are in cahoots with Tata a group worth £230 billion!
Soumya Swaminathan, the chief scientist at the World Health Organization, tweeted on Tuesday: “We have known that recombinant events can occur, in humans or animals, with multiple circulating variants of #SARSCoV2.
“Need to wait for experiments to determine the properties of this virus. Importance of sequencing, analytics & rapid data sharing as we deal with this pandemic.”
Global first responders
Excellent bioinformatics
It cant be 6% as the last notification was 4% and according to the AIM rules each percentage increasenand decrease thereafter the inital disclosure has to be reported to the entity. Obviously this still requires Novacyt to make the disclosure public.
Talk of a cash offer in excess of £6 per share is entriely feasible depending how much they get the initial 30% for. If they continue accumulating sub £3 they will be happy to finance a offer £6+ As there average will balance the books. Interesting few weeks ahead. It seems they being tactful with the buys as to not spike the price just yet.
From i could make of the Bio finances to fund an acquisition of Nova i estimated they have around c£170m in cash available. Currently our EV is about £40m (could be negative if DHSC revs are guaranteed) and so technically they could keep accumulating on the open market between £2-£3 to reach 30% without impacting the bank too much. From then on, my opinion is a mix of a cash and share for share offer. I dont see them using debt financing considering the financing facility they already have. In theory they could get us very cheap and are seizing this opportunity.
We may see some defensive tactics in play from the BOD. I wouldnt mind a ‘white knight’ to start accumulating aswel.
B2 - why risk the capital without knowing beforehand? Their intentions will become clear soon. Another theory maybe the board are aware of a settlement re. The dispute and to fend off potential hostile bidders they agree to merge with a similar sized player on conditions they purchase voting rights. DA sounded confident of a positive settlement. Anything upto £75m in added cash include the cash from Q1 and cash will be at almost 1.25x mcap.
The board are surely concerned about the level of PI holding and wary a fairly cheapish bid say £5-6 a share maybe accepted by desperate PI’s.
Any idea the method they went about purchasing the shares in Theradiag? Was is staggered over a period or all in one flush? My view is a merger/tie up is in negotiations and following some DD from Bio they decided to invest not only to show intent or maybe conditionally as part of the merger but also they see a lot of value down here. They wpuld have been privy to more info than we know of and with the diversification into non covid and strategy in progress it makes sense to tie up with a company in a similar field working on similar products looking to grow.
They are listed on the French exchange. I doubt its a RTO as what would be the motivation for them to list in the UK. Most likely a merger or partnership but i would expect an announcement confirming this from Novacyt.
The collab with TATA is one certainly not to be sniffed at. They are working closely as evidenced already and these new jobs may be indicative if whats to come. Having TATA as a potential large customer is huge if we can deliver what they need. Additionally, they have a habit of taking out aspiring businesses and diversify in all types of sectors. This could be on the cards at some point in the future.
DA has gone in with a very conservative forecast for this year. Better under promise over deliver than the other way round. Perhaps a bit optimistic but i expect us to exceed £60m total revenue with a similar EBITDA. Another variant is around the corner and testing will remain for a long time to come.