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The combination of Cap and Floor and Ontario’s LT2 - both results due this month - could be very big indeed. Share price weakness incomprehensible on any knowledgeable view IMO.

FS

Very interesting analysis. Much appreciated, Sailplane.

FS

MWh? MW surely

FS

Next-Generation Flow Batteries for a Net-Zero Future - Queen Mary University of London - School of Engineering and Materials Science :

"We have a fully funded 4-year PhD studentship opportunity in our group at Queen Mary University London working on Advancing Redox-Targeting Flow Batteries with Solid Boosters for Breakthrough Energy Density, sponsored by The Faraday Institution, QMUL and Invinity Energy Systems -a global leader in vanadium flow battery technology."

FS

PMC2022 / Doyezee ... I think you are both right. Over the recent years I have looked (glumly) at historical daily volumes in a few hundred thousand - but ChatGPT tells me the average volume over the last 10 trading days is 6 million (although that was heavily influenced by one 20 million day). IMO it is more trades like the UT I mentioned yesterday that we need to see (not a startling insight I know).

FS

And the 2.7m UT at the end may point to greater institutional interest, I suggest.

FS

BBN - You mention 2030 - Is Hagshaw not in Window 2 - or have I misunderstood ?

FS

BigBIteNow, I broadly agree. The scale of any Cap and Floor award is the key variable because, if meaningful, it changes the conversation from survival to scaling. The context of future funding against a multi-GWh pipeline is very different to where the Company has been viewed historically. And in my view expansion will also likely prove less balance sheet intensive than investors currently assume, as management have indicated and existing circumstances confirm.

For now, I’m keeping an open mind, as the shape of any funding will likely depend on contract scale, revenue timing and how clearly management can evidence a credible path to profitability. But if Invinity does build several GWh of visible backlog, I agree the market is unlikely to value the business the way it does today. In that scenario, additional capital for expansion would likely come alongside a much stronger outlook and share price.

Lastly, while I would like an EOS style valuation - I'm not so sure about their substance.

FS

IMO the main factor is whether investors view Invinity as approaching a manufacturing scale inflection or still trapped in a perpetual pilot-project cycle. The cap-and-floor mechanism could materially shift that perception if it creates repeatable UK deployment economics for the Company.

If Invinity are successful in cap and floor, I think the question is less “will they ever raise again?” and more: At what valuation - under what strategic context - and does the raise accelerate self-sustaining profitability?

So, I think if the cap-and-floor decision lands favourably (which I think is likely) those answers could look very different from the past, as you suggest in the last paragraph of your first post.

FS

And balanced and positive report from Longspur Research this morning:

"The project lands at an opportune moment ahead of an expected announcement on Ofgem's LDES Cap and Floor scheme, which could catalyse a number of similar projects".

FS

Invinity Delivers Europe's Largest Vanadium Flow Battery:

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/IES/invinity-delivers-europe-s-largest-vfb/17586997

FS

The Endurium cost reduction is very positive - in the longer term it is the key to success. The projected revenues out to 2028 are interesting but offset by continuing project slippages and a very bare short term revenue outlook. This is a positive update, but the news I am looking for is still to come. IMO - the IDL results (and news from Canada) remain pivotal.

FS

Jandm: You are correct about the £40, sadly.

FS

Hi F1Driver, I assume your question is why I’m cautiously optimistic:

I guess my thoughts ... are the business appears to be stabilising; management seems competent; there are credible levers for deleveraging through asset sales and improved cash generation; lenders still supportive for now; and very importantly, even a modest recovery in end markets could drive a disproportionate uplift in earnings and help bring debt down. Of course, my optimism depends on conditions not worsening significantly and execution continuing as planned.

FS

IMO the latest results show a business that’s steadying itself but not really growing yet. Revenues and profits are still under pressure, and the big issue – debt - remains. Management seems capable and taking the right steps, like cutting costs and shifting toward higher-margin products, but for now it still feels like a work-in-progress turnaround. If demand improves and debt comes down, there’s upside - but until then, especially given geopolitical uncertainty, it looks like a wait-and-see story. That said, I’m cautiously optimistic and staying invested.

FS

From the Invinity website:

Invinity is now looking to expand its product development capabilities, as we move from developing single solutions to managing a portfolio of complementary products. Join us as we help transform renewable energy into a stable and dependable contributor to the transition to net zero.

Director of Product Development

In this role, reporting to the VP Product Development, you will lead a sophisticated, experienced and rapidly growing cross-functional team through the successful introduction of new products from concept to launch. This role is critical in ensuring that new products focus on, then deliver on, cost, quality, performance and schedule requirements aligned with market needs and strategic business goals.

FS

Last month, Cadman Cranes returned in full strength to support Aniron Renewables and Invinity Energy Systems with phase 2 of the installation programme ...

And here (interesting to me) details of Phase 1 including the fact that the first 40 batteries were installed on site in one week:

https://www.cadmancranes.com/news/expert-contract-lifting-for-energy-storage-projects-copwood-vfb-energy-hub/

A bit nerdy I know.

FS

Brandes Investment Partners, L.P. buy just over 5% of the Company. A precursor to?

There are in fact now two roles for Senior Production Planner positions shown on LinkedIn - one at Motherwell the other at Bathgate. Lots of planning coming down the track I assume.

FS

Toneman:

I don't understand your post - the Executive Summary on the link you post clearly identifies Invinity as a partner and the detailed BESS statement does the same ("This system will be implemented in partnership with Invinity Energy Systems, a global leader in vanadium flow battery technology.")

What are you reading where?

FS